On Markov processes with polynomial conditional moments

This book explores important aspects of Markov and hidden Markov processes and the applications of these ideas to various problems in computational biology. It starts from first principles, so that no previous knowledge of probability is necessary. However, the work is rigorous and mathematical, making it useful to engineers and mathematicians, even those not interested in biological applications. A range of exercises is provided, including drills to familiarize the reader with concepts and more advanced problems that require deep thinking about the theory. Biological applications are taken from post-genomic biology, especially genomics and proteomics. The topics examined include standard material such as the Perron–Frobenius theorem, transient and recurrent states, hitting probabilities and hitting times, maximum likelihood estimation, the Viterbi algorithm, and the Baum–Welch algorithm. The book contains discussions of extremely useful topics not usually seen at the basic level, such as ergodicity of Markov processes, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), information theory, and large deviation theory for both i.i.d and Markov processes. It also presents state-of-the-art realization theory for hidden Markov models. Among biological applications, it offers an in-depth look at the BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Technique) algorithm, including a comprehensive explanation of the underlying theory. Other applications such as profile hidden Markov models are also explored.

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Markov Jump Linear System Analysis of a Microgrid Operating in Islanded and Grid Tied Modes

10.36227/techrxiv.13490496 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gilles Mpembele ◽

Jonathan Kimball

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo ◽

Power Systems ◽

Power System ◽

System Analysis ◽

Differential Algebraic Equations ◽

Algebraic Equations ◽

Markov Jump ◽

Numerical Application ◽

Conditional Moments ◽

Markov Jump Linear Systems

<div>The analysis of power system dynamics is usually conducted using traditional models based on the standard nonlinear differential algebraic equations (DAEs). In general, solutions to these equations can be obtained using numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations. The use of methods based on the Stochastic Hybrid System (SHS) framework for power systems subject to stochastic behavior is relatively new. These methods have been successfully applied to power systems subjected to</div><div>stochastic inputs. This study discusses a class of SHSs referred to as Markov Jump Linear Systems (MJLSs), in which the entire dynamic system is jumping between distinct operating points, with different local small-signal dynamics. The numerical application is based on the analysis of the IEEE 37-bus power system switching between grid-tied and standalone operating modes. The Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) representing the evolution of the conditional moments are derived and a matrix representation of the system is developed. Results are compared to the averaged Monte Carlo simulation. The MJLS approach was found to have a key advantage of being far less computational expensive.</div>

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