A Mechanistic Model to Study the Thermal Ecology of a Southeastern Pacific Dominant Intertidal Mussel and Implications for Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 303-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Finke ◽  
F. Bozinovic ◽  
S. A. Navarrete
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Thermal Ecology ◽  
Southeastern Pacific ◽  
Intertidal Mussel

scholarly journals Simulating the Effects of Intensifying Silviculture on Desired Species Yields across a Broad Environmental Gradient

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 755
Author(s):  
Eric B. Searle ◽  
F. Wayne Bell ◽  
Guy R. Larocque ◽  
Mathieu Fortin ◽  
Jennifer Dacosta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Paradigm Shifts ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Forest Modelling

In the past two decades, forest management has undergone major paradigm shifts that are challenging the current forest modelling architecture. New silvicultural systems, guidelines for natural disturbance emulation, a desire to enhance structural complexity, major advances in successional theory, and climate change have all highlighted the limitations of current empirical models in covering this range of conditions. Mechanistic models, which focus on modelling underlying ecological processes rather than specific forest conditions, have the potential to meet these new paradigm shifts in a consistent framework, thereby streamlining the planning process. Here we use the NEBIE (a silvicultural intervention scale that classifies management intensities as natural, extensive, basic, intensive, and elite) plot network, from across Ontario, Canada, to examine the applicability of a mechanistic model, ZELIG-CFS (a version of the ZELIG tree growth model developed by the Canadian Forest Service), to simulate yields and species compositions. As silvicultural intensity increased, overall yield generally increased. Species compositions met the desired outcomes when specific silvicultural treatments were implemented and otherwise generally moved from more shade-intolerant to more shade-tolerant species through time. Our results indicated that a mechanistic model can simulate complex stands across a range of forest types and silvicultural systems while accounting for climate change. Finally, we highlight the need to improve the modelling of regeneration processes in ZELIG-CFS to better represent regeneration dynamics in plantations. While fine-tuning is needed, mechanistic models present an option to incorporate adaptive complexity into modelling forest management outcomes.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Longbottom ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Harry S. Gibson ◽  
Daniel J. Weiss ◽  
Steve Torr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Tsetse Flies ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Catch Data ◽  
Tsetse Population ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. Methods Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. Results We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. Conclusions To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

Multi-model projections of evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia La Fuente ◽  
Iestyn Woolway ◽  
Eleanor Jennings ◽  
Gideon Gal ◽  
Georgiy Kirillin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Lake Kinneret ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Historic Period ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Lake Ecosystems ◽  
Lake Evaporation

<p>Evaporation of surface water is critical to the basic functioning of lakes. It directly and, in some cases, substantially modifies the hydrologic, chemical, and energy budgets, making evaporation one of the most important physical controls on lake ecosystems. Predicting lake evaporation response to climate change is, therefore, of paramount importance. Most studies that simulate climate change impacts on lake evaporation have utilised only a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, the advantage of applying multiple, independently developed models (i.e., an ensemble approach), is that some of the inherent uncertainties in the individual lake models due to, for example, different model structures, can be reduced thus enabling increased robustness of historic and future projections. In this study, we present results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP) Lake Sector, where lake evaporation responses to 20<sup>th</sup> and 21<sup>st</sup> century (1901-2099) climate change has been simulated with a suite of independently developed lake models under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5). Our study focuses on Lake Kinneret (Israel), a sub-tropical monomictic lake of socioeconomic importance. Our simulations are validated during the historic period with bulk evaporation estimates calculated from high frequency meteorological and in-lake observations. Our results demonstrate that the lake models provide an accurate representation of historical variability in lake evaporation, with promising comparisons of the magnitude, timing and seasonality of evaporative water loss. Future evaporation projections at Lake Kinneret show that evaporation anomalies will increase by the end of the century. We show that multi-model projections of lake evaporation can accurately represent the historic period and hence provide reliable future projections that will be vital for water management.</p>

Thermal ecology of Galaxias platei (Pisces, Galaxiidae) in South Patagonia: perspectives under a climate change scenario

Hydrobiologia ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 802 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Eugenia Barrantes ◽  
María Eugenia Lattuca ◽  
Fabián Alberto Vanella ◽  
Daniel Alfredo Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Thermal Ecology ◽  
South Patagonia

scholarly journals Thermal ecology and baseline energetic requirements of a large‐bodied ectotherm suggest resilience to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayley L. Crowell ◽  
Katherine C. King ◽  
James M. Whelan ◽  
Mallory V. Harmel ◽  
Gennesee Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Ecology
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