Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries. Sebastian Edwards

1991 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 902-906
Author(s):  
Lawrence H. Officer
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

A FORECASTING APPROACH TO REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE-OIL PRICE NEXUS IN CHINA

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
HAMID BAGHESTANI ◽  
SEHAR FATIMA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Motivated by the theoretical link between real exchange rates and oil prices, we utilize a univariate moving average (MA) and an augmented MA (A-MA) model to generate multi-period forecasts of China’s real effective exchange rate for 2008–2018. The MA model utilizes past information in real exchange rates, and the A-MA model utilizes past information in both real exchange rates and oil prices. We show that the A-MA forecasts are unbiased and embody useful predictive information beyond that contained in the MA forecasts. In addition, the A-MA forecasts are directionally accurate under asymmetric loss. Such accurate forecasts are useful as inputs for policymakers to design an optimal real exchange rate policy to promote trade and attract foreign investment, and for foreign entities that regard China as an attractive environment for investing in various sectors.

Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

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