Probability Kinematics And Commutativity*

Carl G. Wagner

doi:10.1086/341053

Probability Kinematics And Commutativity*

Philosophy of Science ◽

10.1086/341053 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 69 (2) ◽

pp. 266-278 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

Carl G. Wagner

Keyword(s):

Probability Kinematics

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Symmetries of Probability Kinematics

Bridging the Gap: Philosophy, Mathematics, and Physics - Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science ◽

10.1007/978-94-011-2496-6_14 ◽

1993 ◽

pp. 285-314 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bas Van Fraassen

Keyword(s):

Probability Kinematics

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MERGING OF OPINIONS AND PROBABILITY KINEMATICS

The Review of Symbolic Logic ◽

10.1017/s1755020315000180 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 611-648 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

SIMON M. HUTTEGGER

Keyword(s):

Asymptotic Behavior ◽

Special Consideration ◽

Uncertain Information ◽

Subjective Probabilities ◽

Special Cases ◽

Jeffrey Conditioning ◽

Probability Kinematics ◽

Bayesian Conditioning

AbstractWe explore the question of whether sustained rational disagreement is possible from a broadly Bayesian perspective. The setting is one where agents update on the same information, with special consideration being given to the case of uncertain information. The classical merging of opinions theorem of Blackwell and Dubins shows when updated beliefs come and stay closer for Bayesian conditioning. We extend this result to a type of Jeffrey conditioning where agents update on evidence that is uncertain but solid (hard Jeffrey shifts). However, merging of beliefs does not generally hold for Jeffrey conditioning on evidence that is fluid (soft Jeffrey shifts, Field shifts). Several theorems on the asymptotic behavior of subjective probabilities are proven. Taken together they show that while a consensus nearly always emerges in important special cases, sustained rational disagreement can be expected in many other situations.

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