The Solar Activity Cycle. I. Observations of the End of Cycle 22, 1993 September–1997 February

1998 ◽  
Vol 493 (1) ◽  
pp. 494-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey C. Hall ◽  
G. W. Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle

Trends in Parameters of the F2 Layer and the 24th Solar-Activity Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 586-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Danilov ◽  
A. V. Konstantinova
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

scholarly journals Helioseismic inferences

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (S264) ◽  
pp. 33-38
Author(s):  
Hiromoto Shibahashi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Linear Approximation ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Convective Zone ◽  
Dynamo Model ◽  
Kinematic Dynamo ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Dynamo Mechanism ◽  
Solar Type

AbstractThe brilliant outcome of some 30 years of helioseismology spreads over a wide range of topics. Some highlights relevant to the cause of the solar activity cycle are listed up. The rotation profile in the solar convective zone is discussed as an important source of the dynamo mechanism. The kinematic dynamo model is described in the linear approximation, and the condition for the solar type dynamo is derived. It is shown that comparison of this condition with the rotation profile determined from helioseismology is useful to identify the possible seats of the dynamo.

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