An Iterative GLS Procedure for Estimating the Parameters of Models with Autocorrelated Errors Using Data Aggregated Over Time

1980 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre M. Windal ◽  
Doyle L. Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Using Data ◽  
Autocorrelated Errors ◽  
Over Time

How Collective-Action Failure Shapes Group Heterogeneity and Engagement in Conventional and Radical Action Over Time

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097056
Author(s):  
Morgana Lizzio-Wilson ◽  
Emma F. Thomas ◽  
Winnifred R. Louis ◽  
Brittany Wilcockson ◽  
Catherine E. Amiot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Profile Analysis ◽  
Social Identification ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Group Efficacy ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

Extensive research has identified factors influencing collective-action participation. However, less is known about how collective-action outcomes (i.e., success and failure) shape engagement in social movements over time. Using data collected before and after the 2017 marriage-equality debate in Australia, we conducted a latent profile analysis that indicated that success unified supporters of change ( n = 420), whereas failure created subgroups among opponents ( n = 419), reflecting four divergent responses: disengagement (resigned acceptors), moderate disengagement and continued investment (moderates), and renewed commitment to the cause using similar strategies (stay-the-course opponents) or new strategies (innovators). Resigned acceptors were least inclined to act following failure, whereas innovators were generally more likely to engage in conventional action and justify using radical action relative to the other profiles. These divergent reactions were predicted by differing baseline levels of social identification, group efficacy, and anger. Collective-action outcomes dynamically shape participation in social movements; this is an important direction for future research.

Social Change and Psychological Change in Rural Mali

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 965-981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmi Schooler ◽  
Leslie J Caplan ◽  
Pakuy Pierre Mounkoro ◽  
Chiaka Diakité
Keyword(s):  
Social Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Psychological Change ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
Personality Stability ◽  
Psychological Reaction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

We examine the effects of socio-environmental change on personality in Mali in three ways, using data from a longitudinal two-wave (1994, 2004) survey conducted in rural Mali. Firstly, we compare the between-wave personality stability of Anxiety, Self-confidence, Mastery/Fatalism, and Authoritarianism with that in USA, Japan, Poland, and Ukraine. Secondly, we examine socio-economic hardship and political instability in pre-industrial Mali. Thirdly, we examine patterns of psychological reaction to political and social change during the study period. Our findings have implications for comparisons and generalizations across times and cultures about the contribution of socio-environmental conditions to over-time change in personality.

scholarly journals Camp stability predicts patterns of hunter–gatherer cooperation

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 160131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Mark Dyble ◽  
James Thompson ◽  
Katie Major ◽  
Abigail E. Page ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Ecological Context ◽  
Hunter Gatherers ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
Resource Transfers ◽  
Experimental Games ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Do So

Humans regularly cooperate with non-kin, which has been theorized to require reciprocity between repeatedly interacting and trusting individuals. However, the role of repeated interactions has not previously been demonstrated in explaining real-world patterns of hunter–gatherer cooperation. Here we explore cooperation among the Agta, a population of Filipino hunter–gatherers, using data from both actual resource transfers and two experimental games across multiple camps. Patterns of cooperation vary greatly between camps and depend on socio-ecological context. Stable camps (with fewer changes in membership over time) were associated with greater reciprocal sharing, indicating that an increased likelihood of future interactions facilitates reciprocity. This is the first study reporting an association between reciprocal cooperation and hunter–gatherer band stability. Under conditions of low camp stability individuals still acquire resources from others, but do so via demand sharing (taking from others), rather than based on reciprocal considerations. Hunter–gatherer cooperation may either be characterized as reciprocity or demand sharing depending on socio-ecological conditions.

Global epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of standardized population-based seroprevalence studies, Jan 2020-Oct 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Bergeri ◽  
Mairead Whelan ◽  
Harriet Ware ◽  
Lorenzo Subissi ◽  
Anthony Nardone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Global Epidemiology ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Demographic Subgroups ◽  
Over Time

Background COVID-19 case data underestimates infection and immunity, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We meta-analyzed standardized SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies to estimate global seroprevalence. Objectives/Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, preprints, and grey literature for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies aligned with the WHO UNITY protocol published between 2020-01-01 and 2021-10-29. Eligible studies were extracted and critically appraised in duplicate. We meta-analyzed seroprevalence by country and month, pooling to estimate regional and global seroprevalence over time; compared seroprevalence from infection to confirmed cases to estimate under-ascertainment; meta-analyzed differences in seroprevalence between demographic subgroups; and identified national factors associated with seroprevalence using meta-regression. PROSPERO: CRD42020183634. Results We identified 396 full texts reporting 736 distinct seroprevalence studies (41% LMIC), including 355 low/moderate risk of bias studies with national/sub-national scope in further analysis. By April 2021, global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 26.1%, 95% CI [24.6-27.6%]. Seroprevalence rose steeply in the first half of 2021 due to infection in some regions (e.g., 18.2% to 45.9% in Africa) and vaccination and infection in others (e.g., 11.3% to 57.4% in the Americas high-income countries), but remained low in others (e.g., 0.3% to 1.6% in the Western Pacific). In 2021 Q1, median seroprevalence to case ratios were 1.9:1 in HICs and 61.9:1 in LMICs. Children 0-9 years and adults 60+ were at lower risk of seropositivity than adults 20-29. In a multivariate model using data pre-vaccination, more stringent public health and social measures were associated with lower seroprevalence. Conclusions Global seroprevalence has risen considerably over time and with regional variation, however much of the global population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. True infections far exceed reported COVID-19 cases. Standardized seroprevalence studies are essential to inform COVID-19 control measures, particularly in resource-limited regions.

Observation of gliding tremors from the Gulf of Guinea might help solve over 50 year old mystery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Bruland ◽  
Sarah Mader ◽  
Céline Hadziioannou
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Rayleigh Waves ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
Seismic Amplitude ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Amplitude Spectra ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

<p>In the 1960's a peak in the seismic amplitude spectra around 26 s was discovered and detected on stations worldwide. The source was located in the Gulf of Guinea, with approximate coordinates (0,0), and was believed to be generated continuously. A source with similar spectral characteristics was discovered near the Vanuatu Islands, at nearly the antipodal location of the Gulf of Guinea source. Since it was located close to the volcanoes in Vanuatu, this source is commonly attributed to magmatic processes. The physical cause of the 26 s microseism, however, remains unclear.</p><p>We investigate the source location and evolution of the 26 s microseim using data from permanent broadband stations in Germany, France and Algeria and temporary arrays in Morocco, Cameroon and Botswana for spectral analysis and 3-C beamforming to get closer to resolving the source mechanism responsible for this enigmatic signal. We find that the signal modulates over time and is not always detectable, but occasionally it becomes so energetic it can be observed on stations worldwide. Such a burst can last for hours or days. The signal is visible on stations globally approximately 30 percent of the time. Our beamforming analysis confirms that the source is located in the Gulf of Guinea, as shown in previous studies, and that the location is temporally stable. Whenever the signal is detectable, both Love and Rayleigh waves are generated. We discover a spectral glide effect associated with the bursts, that so far has not been reported in the literature. </p><p>The spectral glides last for about two days and are observed on stations globally. Although at higher frequencies, very long period tremors and gliding tremors are also observed on volcanoes as Redoubt in Alaska and Arenal in Costa Rica, suggesting that the origin of the 26 s tremor is also volcanic. However, there is no reported volcanic activity in the area where the source appears to be located.</p><p> </p>

Trends in end-of- life (EOL) systemic oncologic treatment in contemporary clinical practice: Insights from real-world data.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (28_suppl) ◽  
pp. 253-253
Author(s):  
Maureen Canavan ◽  
Xiaoliang Wang ◽  
Mustafa Ascha ◽  
Rebecca A. Miksad ◽  
Timothy N Showalter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Treatment ◽  
End Of Life ◽  
Real World ◽  
Cost Of Care ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Oncolytic Therapy ◽  
Immune Therapies ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

253 Background: Among patients with cancer, receipt of systemic oncolytic therapy near the end-of-life (EOL) does not improve outcomes and worsens patient and caregiver experience. Accordingly, the ASCO/NQF measure, Proportion Receiving Chemotherapy in the Last 14 Days of Life, was published in 2012. Over the last decade there has been exponential growth in high cost targeted and immune therapies which may be perceived as less toxic than traditional chemotherapy. In this study, we identified rates and types of EOL systemic therapy in today’s real-world practice; these can serve as benchmarks for cancer care organizations to drive improvement efforts. Methods: Using data from the nationwide Flatiron Health electronic health record (EHR)-derived de-identified database we included patients who died during 2015 through 2019, were diagnosed after 2011, and who had documented cancer treatment. We identified the use of aggressive EOL systemic treatment (including, chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and combinations thereof) at both 30 days and 14 days prior to death. We estimated standardized EOL rates using mixed-level logistic regression models adjusting for patient and practice-level factors. Year-specific adjusted rates were estimated in annualized stratified analysis. Results: We included 57,127 patients, 38% of whom had documentation of having received any type of systemic cancer treatment within 30 days of death (SD: 5%; range: 25% - 56%), and 17% within 14 days of death (SD: 3%; range: 10% - 30%). Chemotherapy alone was the most common EOL treatment received (18% at 30 days, 8% at 14 days), followed by immunotherapy (± other treatment) (11% at 30 days, 4% at 14 days). Overall rates of EOL treatment did not change over the study period: treatment within 30 days (39% in 2015 to 37% in 2019) and within 14 days (17% in 2015 to 17% in 2019) of death. However, the rates of chemotherapy alone within 30 days of death decreased from 24% to 14%, and within 14 days, from 10% to 6% during the study period. In comparison, rates for immunotherapy with chemotherapy (0%-6% for 30 days, 0% -2% for 14 days), and immunotherapy alone or with other treatment types (4%-13% for 30 days, 1%-4% for 14 days) increased over time for both 30 and 14 days. Conclusions: End of life systemic cancer treatment rates have not substantively changed over time despite national efforts and expert guidance. While rates of traditional chemotherapy have decreased, rates of costly immunotherapy and targeted therapy have increased, which has been associated with higher total cost of care and overall healthcare utilization. Future work should examine the drivers of end-of-life care in the era of immune-oncology.

Patterns and Volatility in State Funding for Higher Education, 1951–2006

2018 ◽  
Vol 120 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Delaney ◽  
William R. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Past Research ◽  
State Funding ◽  
Higher Education Funding ◽  
State Budget ◽  
State Budgets ◽  
Higher Education Leaders ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

Background Numerous studies have addressed the determinants of higher education appropriations. Extending prior studies that only consider the relationship between higher education and one other state budget category, Delaney and Doyle develop and test an empirical model of the relationship between higher education and all other budget categories. Delaney and Doyle propose that higher education takes the form of a balance wheel in state budgets. They find that higher education is cut more than other budget categories in bad budget years and given larger increases in good budget years. Although previous work advances understanding of how states budget for higher education, it is limited in the length of time considered. Purpose This study makes two important contributions to the literature. First, it documents changes in the amount of volatility in state funding for higher education. Second, it identifies patterns in the volatility, and does so over a longer time period than has been investigated in past research, using data that spans over a half century (1951–2006). Research Design This study uses a unique panel dataset spanning the period from 1951 to 2006 to quantitatively document changes in the extent of volatility in state funding for higher education. It also identifies and tests for patterns of volatility. Findings We find that the level of volatility in state budgeting for higher education has changed over time. We also find evidence of linear (incremental), quadratic (countercyclical), and cubic (balance wheel) patterns of volatility at different points in time. Recommendations Our findings indicate that the role of higher education in state budgets is not static and has varied over time. In policy discussions about higher education funding, we think it is important to consider both absolute funding levels and the amount of volatility in funding. We recommend that higher education leaders discuss not only funding levels with their state legislatures, but also discuss volatility in funding patterns. States and higher education have operated under different funding relationships in the past; therefore, it seems possible that policymakers and higher education officials could change their current funding relationship to conform to a pattern that better serves the needs of the state, institutions, and students.

scholarly journals Coprescribing of Benzodiazepines and Opioids in Older Adults: Rates, Correlates, and National Trends

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (12) ◽  
pp. 1910-1915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taeho Greg Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Prescribing Trends ◽  
Clinical Diagnoses ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Using Data ◽  
National Trends ◽  
Ambulatory Medical Care ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background To estimate prescribing trends of and correlates independently associated with coprescribing of benzodiazepines and opioids among adults aged 65 years or older in office-based outpatient visits. Methods I examined a nationally representative sample of office-based physician visits by older adults between 2006 and 2015 (n = 109,149 unweighted) using data from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys (NAMCS). National rates and prescribing trends were estimated. Then, I used multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify demographic and clinical factors associated with coprescriptions of benzodiazepines and opioids. Results From 2006 to 2015, 15,954 (14.6%) out of 109,149 visits, representative of 39.3 million visits nationally, listed benzodiazepine, opioid, or both medications prescribed. The rate of prescription benzodiazepines only increased monotonically from 4.8% in 2006–2007 to 6.2% in 2014–2015 (p < .001), and the rate of prescription opioids only increased monotonically from 5.9% in 2006–2007 to 10.0% in 2014–2015 (p < .001). The coprescribing rate of benzodiazepines and opioids increased over time from 1.1% in 2006–2007 to 2.7% in 2014–2015 (p < .001). Correlates independently associated with a higher likelihood of both benzodiazepine and opioid prescriptions included: female sex, a visit for chronic care, receipt of six or more concomitantly prescribed medications, and clinical diagnoses of anxiety and pain (p < .01 for all). Conclusion The coprescribing rate of benzodiazepines and opioids increased monotonically over time in outpatient care settings. Because couse of benzodiazepines and opioids is associated with medication burdens and potential harms, future research is needed to address medication safety in these vulnerable populations.

Did They Mind the Gap? Voter/Party Ideological Proximity between the BQ, the NDP and Quebec Voters, 2006–2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Gauvin ◽  
Chris Chhim ◽  
Mike Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Longitudinal Approach ◽  
The Face ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe 2011 Canadian federal election results changed the face of federal politics in Quebec. In a sudden and spectacular reversal of electoral fortunes, BQ support crumbled while that of the NDP surged. While most commentators focused exclusively on the 2011 election itself to explain what had happened, we offer an interpretation that takes a longitudinal approach. Using data from the Canadian Election Study and political party manifestos from 2006 to 2011, we propose a three-dimensional proximity model of voter/party congruence to explore the evolution of the ideological stances of Quebec voters and parties. Empirical results suggest these ideological distances between the NDP and Quebec voters decreased over time, whereas the BQ has distanced itself from voters. Furthermore, ideological distances between party and voters are a significant predictor of vote.

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