Long-Term Commodity Price Forecasting-1850 to 1930. I

1936 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
E. W. Pettee
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Price Forecasting

Near Term Deployment, Long Term Impact: Uranium Price Over the Lifetime of New Capacity

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erich A. Schneider ◽  
Neil Shah
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Current Production ◽  
Ore Grades ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Production Capacities

While reasonable short-term resource price projections can be obtained by taking a bottom-up approach — constructing a supply curve based upon current production capacities and costs — this approach breaks down as the time horizon of the analysis lengthens. One approach to long-term price forecasting is to calibrate a simple model of a commodity market against past data. To that end, an analogy was drawn between the behavior of the uranium market and that of some three dozen materials for which the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) maintains data. This work adds to previously published results showing that the USGS-reported prices of minerals similar to uranium have consistently declined over the past century. In this paper, the extent to which uranium geology and extraction technologies are indeed analogous to other minerals is quantitatively addressed. A study of crustal abundances, ore grades being economically mined, concentration factors, market share of extraction techniques, years of proven reserve and other factors indicates that uranium is not at all exceptional with respect to the average of the USGS minerals. This suggests that, on the supply side, the analogy between the USGS minerals and uranium may indeed offer valuable insights into medium and long term uranium price behavior.

INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONIZATION AND CHANGES IN LONG-TERM INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 918-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen R. Henzel ◽  
Elisabeth Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
International Linkages ◽  
Good Policy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Vector

We investigate the international linkages of uncertainty associated with the long-term movements of inflation. In the first step, we establish that inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined, and the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two decades. We also document a rise in inflation uncertainty accompanying the global financial crisis. Based on a factor–structural vector autoregression, we provide evidence of a common international shock. We disclose that this shock is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty, and it explains large parts of the recent rise in inflation uncertainty. Moreover, increased synchronization can be explained by greater relative importance of this global shock. We also document that inflation uncertainty has become more stable, because domestic shocks translate less extensively into individual economies. This finding lends support to the “good policy” hypothesis.

scholarly journals Typical Day Detection for Long Term Price Forecasting

2015 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 2677-2682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Raskin ◽  
Petr Rudakov
Keyword(s):  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Typical Day
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