Acceptable Risk? Making Decisions in a Toxic Environment.Lee Clarke

1991 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-257
Author(s):  
Gary A. Kreps
Keyword(s):  
Acceptable Risk

Model for assigning security objects to a specific risk category in the field of fire safety

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
D. V. Zobkov ◽  
◽  
A. A. Poroshin ◽  
A. A. Kondashov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Individual Object ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Risk Categories

Introduction. A mathematical model is presented for assigning protection objects to certain risk categories in the field of fire safety. The model is based on the concepts of the probability of adverse effects of fires causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of harm (damage) from fires. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the study is to develop the procedure for assigning protection objects to a certain category of risk of harm (damage) based on estimates of the probability of fires with the corresponding severity consequences, to determine the acceptable level of risk of harm (damage) due to the fires, to calculate and develop numerical values of criteria for assigning objects of protection to the appropriate risk categories. Methods. The boundaries of the intervals corresponding to certain risk categories are determined by dividing the logarithmic scale of severity of adverse effects of fires into equal segments. Classification methods are used to assign objects of protection to a specific risk category. Results and discussion. Based on the level of severity of potential negative consequences of a fire, risk categories were determined for groups of protection objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and by functional fire hazard classes. The risk category for each individual object of protection is proposed to be determined using the so-called index of "identification of a controlled person" within a group of objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and class of functional fire hazard. Depending on the risk category, the periodicity of planned control and supervision measures in relation to the specific object of protection under consideration is determined, taking into account its socio-economic characteristics and the state of compliance with fire safety requirements by the controlled person. Conclusions. To develop criteria for classifying protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes, the probability of negative consequences of fires, that are causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires, is used. The risk category for each individual object of protection is determined taking into account socio-economic characteristics of the object that affect the level of ensuring its fire safety, as well as the criteriaof integrity of the subordinate person that characterize the probability of non-compliance with mandatory fire safety requirements at the object of protection. Calculations are made and numerical values of criteria for assigning protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes to a certain category of risk are proposed. Key words: object of protection, probability of fire, acceptable level of risk, risk category, dangerous factor of fire, death and injury of people.

Progressive Preoperative Pneumoperitoneum for Hernias with Loss of Domain

2009 ◽  
Vol 75 (6) ◽  
pp. 504-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Stephen Mcadory ◽  
William S. Cobb ◽  
Alfredo M. Carbonell
Keyword(s):  
Hernia Repair ◽  
Operative Time ◽  
Vena Cava ◽  
Tissue Expander ◽  
Mesh Size ◽  
Hernia Recurrence ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Loss Of Domain ◽  
Vena Cava Filters ◽  
Port Infection

Acting as a pneumatic tissue expander, progressive preoperative pneumoperitoneum (PPP) pressurizes the abdomen to prepare patients with giant hernias and loss of domain for hernia repair. We review our experience with PPP. Between 2006 and 2008, a prospective hernia database revealed nine patients who underwent PPP prior to hernia repair. Mean patient age was 54 years (41-68) and mean BMI was 31.3 kg/m2 (25.2-36.5). Patients had prophylactic vena cava filters and intraperitoneal catheters placed. Over a mean 22.4 days (7-64), patients received 7.6 (3-13) injections of air. PPP complications included death from pulmonary mycetoma (1), deep venous thrombosis and acute renal failure (1), port infection (1), kinked catheter requiring reoperation (1). Seven patients underwent successful hernia repair; open ventral (6) and laparoscopic inguinal (1). Defect size averaged 387 cm2 (110-980) with a mesh size of 420 cm2 (180-1200). Operative time averaged 256 minutes (175-330) with a mean blood loss of 157 ml (50-500). Post-hernia repair length of stay was 10.3 days (4-22). Hernia repair complications included ventricular tachycardia (1) and hernia recurrence (1). PPP has an acceptable risk, and for patients with large hernias and loss of domain, it may be a useful adjunct prior to definitive hernia repair.

Forestry and landslides: What's acceptable in BC?

2009 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
R H Guthrie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Public Key ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Landslide Risk Assessment

Landslides are unavoidably linked to forestry operations in coastal BC. A neglected component of landslide risk assessment is the degree to which impacts from landslides may be acceptable. One hundred and thirteen professionals in the BC forest industry, including foresters, biologists, geoscientists and engineers, examined landslide tolerability criteria. Despite differences by sector, there was general agreement that landslides resultant of ignoring expert advice or where an expert was clearly at fault were unacceptable, and penalties were high. In more ambiguous cases, increased consequences resulted in increased scrutiny and it was clear that experts should expect to be held responsible for their decisions by government officiators and the public. Key words: landslide, risk, risk perception, acceptable risk, landslides and forestry

scholarly journals PREVISIONI INCERTE DECISIONI DIFFICILI

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Guagenti Grandori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Catastrophic Events ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Short Term Prediction

This work focuses on decision problems concerning risk reduction in the case of catastrophic events, which are scarsely predictable but associated to severe expected damage. A cryterium is outlined in order to judge the relative credibility of competing models. The knowledge-decision process is dissected in its components. The steps of the procedure from knowledge to final decision are analyzed. The effectiveness of short-term prediction and the choice of the acceptable risk are also discussed. A few case studies, related to earthquakes, landslides and pollution, are exposed.

Acceptable Risk

1983 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
M. Granger Morgan ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff
Keyword(s):  
Acceptable Risk

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood risk as a step in determining the “Acceptable Risk” criteria. Case study: Dengkeng River, Klaten, Central Java

2021 ◽  
Vol 894 (1) ◽  
pp. 012045
Author(s):  
A Sarminingsih ◽  
M Hadiwidodo
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Performance Function ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Potential Risks

Abstract The planning of a flood control system in Indonesia is based on the planning criteria issued by the Ministry of Public Works. Flood control planning is based on flood discharge with a specific return period depending on the order of the river and the number of protected populations. Flood events in areas where the flood control system has been planned continue to occur almost every year, meaning that the probability of being exceeded is not as planned. This study is intended to evaluate the criteria for the magnitude of the designed flood discharge in flood control planning that considers the acceptable risk. Potential risks are evaluated against system reliability. The probability of failure of the flood control system occurs if the resistance is smaller than the load expressed as a performance function. By knowing the performance function associated with the level of flood risk, then the flood discharge can be selected with the appropriate return period according to the acceptable risk.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE CONDITIONS FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WITH A CHANGE IN FUNCTIONAL PURPOSE AND THE SUBSTANTIATION FOR EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DECISIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-71
Author(s):  
Yev. ZAIATS ◽  
V. KOVALIOV ◽  
A. KOSOLAPOV
Keyword(s):  
External Environment ◽  
Systemic Effect ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Environmental Friendliness ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Industrial Buildings ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
Functional Purpose

Raising of problem. Today, the task of creating the toolkit for estimating the duration and cost of the reconstruction of industrial buildings with a change in their functional purpose is important, taking into account the probabilistic impact of the changing external environment, the resource restrictions of the project and compliance with modern requirements for construction objects intended primarily for the needs of the customer, investor. Purpose of the article. Statement of the main provisions of the methods for assessing the conditions for the reconstruction of industrial buildings with a change in their functional appointment and the substantiation for the effective organizational and technological decisions for the production of building work. Conclusion. The choice of effective organizational and technological decisions for building work is based on the assessment of the conditions for the reconstruction of industrial buildings with a change in their functional purposes, taking into account the existing resource restrictions, the requirements for energy efficiency, safety, quality and environmental friendliness of objects, acceptable risk levels, the conditions for the stability of the slopes and the sustainability of buildings, located on the slopes. The substantiation and the choice of rational organizational and technological decisions are based on determining the duration and cost of reconstruction of industrial buildings with a change in functional purpose, when calculating which it is necessary to take into account the systemic effect of determining factors and probabilistic nature of this impact, as well as the possibility of adjusting the decisions considered in order to ensure the specified resource restrictions. The main feature of the developed approach is that, changing the values of determining factors, within the existing resource restrictions, we obtain various solutions with the corresponding values of the duration and cost of the reconstruction of industrial buildings with a change in functional purpose. The choice of the most rational decision from the options received is carried out by the customer (investor), depending on the possibilities and wishes.

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