Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim A. Dowd ◽  
Ralph M. Monaco ◽  
Jeffry J. Janoska
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

How Prevalent is Performance-Related Pay in the United States? Current Incidence and Recent Trends

2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. R4-R16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maury Gittleman ◽  
Brooks Pierce
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Potential Explanation ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Current Incidence

We address basic questions about performance-related pay in the US. How widespread is it? What characteristics of employers and jobs are associated with it? What are recent trends in its incidence? What factors are responsible for these trends? Nearly two-fifths of hours worked in the US economy in 2013 were in jobs with performance-related pay, but this share has been declining. We consider several possible causes for this trend and find that they do not have much explanatory power. We do establish, however, that any potential explanation must also account for a long-term shift in the relative incidence of performance-related pay away from low-wage and toward high-wage jobs.

scholarly journals Going Solo: On the Substitutability between Paid-Employment and Self-Employment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Congregado ◽  
Antonio A. Golpe ◽  
Vicente Esteve
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Paid Employment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Employment Rates

This paper provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution between operational and managerial jobs in the US economy covering a period of almost five decades, derived from an aggregate CES production function. Estimating the long-term relationship between (the log of) the aggregate employment/self-employment ratio and (the log of) the returns from paid-employment relative to self-employment and testing for structural breaks, we report different estimates of the elasticity of substitution in each of the two regimes identified. Our results help to understand and interpret one of the most intriguing aspects in the evolution of self-employment rates in developed countries: the reversal of the trend in self-employment rates. Our estimates show that a higher level of development is associated with a greater number of entrepreneurs and smaller firms. Some rationales for understanding the growth of the elasticity between paid-employment and self-employment, including the recent trends in the digital economy—are also suggested.

scholarly journals HOW CORRELATED ARE MEXICO’S SALARIES AND US OUTPUT? AN INQUIRY ON SOME US BORDER CITIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Willy Walter Cortez ◽  
Alejandro Islas-Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Labor Income ◽  
Growth Convergence ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Wage Rates ◽  
Northern Border ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

In this essay we pursue the question about the nature of integration that there is between the Mexican cities’ labor market located along the northern border and the US economy. We also inquiry whether there has been any change in such a relationship over time. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter we are able to establish the short and long term behavior of the wage rates in the four largest US Border Mexican cities. We find that there has been a change in the nature of the relationship between the cyclical components of the Mexican labor income and US output. We also find some evidence about growth convergence within northern border Mexican labor incomes.

Using non-linear estimation strategies to test an extended version of the Goodwin model on the US economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-286
Author(s):  
Julio Fernando Costa Santos ◽  
Ricardo Azevedo Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Extended Version ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Goodwin Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Empirical Approaches

There is a growing empirical literature that seeks to determine country growth and demand. One possible shortcoming of those studies is their sensitivity to the estimation strategy, which is linked to the time horizon. A profit-led regime has been found to be the most likely outcome when adopting an aggregative approach, while a wage-led regime is the most likely outcome when utilizing a structural estimation. Another potential weakness is that the empirical approaches adopted are mostly linear. To overcome these criticisms, we adopt wavelet analysis, which allows the decomposition of a time series into short- and long-term components, thereby enabling investigation of whether the growth regime switches over time. This paper tests an extended version of the Goodwin model for the US economy using data from 1967 to 2016. The results show that both the growth and demand regimes are sensitive to time and are profit-led in the short term and wage-led in the long term, thereby confirming Blecker's (2016) insight.

SOVEREIGN DEBT IN THE UNITED STATES AND GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 447-477
Author(s):  
Juan Equiza-Goñi
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
The United States ◽  
Revenue Growth ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Business Cycle Model

This paper shows empirical evidence and theory consistent with the US government using debt optimally to adjust the federal budget to news about long-term growth. First, using historical forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) since 1984, I find that government purchases and deficits are positively correlated with expectations about long-term productivity, real gross domestic product, and tax revenue growth, whereas tax receipts are negatively correlated. A structural vector autoregression estimated with US quarterly data in 1955–2015 identifies permanent and transitory productivity shocks and points to “trend” shocks as the source of these correlations. Second, I present an open economy real business-cycle model with stochastic productivity trend and optimal public purchases and taxes. Calibrating the model to the US economy, the Ramsey planners' allocation yields moments aligned with those observed in the data.

scholarly journals The Green New Deal, Financial Statements and the Accounting Profession

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-92
Author(s):  
Dr. Sunita Rao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Systemic Change ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Accounting Profession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Climate change is real and immediate. The Green New deal (GND) is a set of policies, measures, events and actions designed to bring about systemic change to counter the effects of the catastrophic effects of climate change. These policies, measures, events and actions will deeply impact the accounting profession and the financial statements, since it aims to transform the US economy in a sustainable way by focusing on the long term. This article discusses the effects of GND on financial reporting and disclosure.

Puerto Rico faces rocky 2019 amid debt and aid needs

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
Outward Migration ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Trump’s commitment to building a US-Mexico border wall means he may try to redirect additional funds from elsewhere for the purpose. Some of these could come from Puerto Rican disaster relief money. If this occurs, or if Trump rejects the bipartisan deal, it will add to Puerto Rico’s long-term fiscal pressures and aid needs, amid wider questions about the island’s constitutional status and development. Impacts Outward migration is likely to rise, especially as the US economy grows, constraining Puerto Rico’s economic diversification. The Democratic US House majority will raise Hispanic-American and Puerto-Rican American issues’ profile. New legislation for Puerto Rican US statehood may be introduced, but passage is unlikely. Puerto Rico will sue the Trump administration if it redirects money bound for Puerto Rico for wall-building.

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