The dancing of the real exchange rate of US dollar and the US real trade balance

1996 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 807-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matiur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF OIL PRICES ON INDONESIA’S EXCHANGE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 303-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Wati Narayan ◽  
Telisa Falianty ◽  
Lutzardo Tobing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Real ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

This study tests for a long-run relation between oil prices and the rupiah–US dollarexchange rate. We discover, first, that the long-run cointegration relation between oilprices and the real exchange rate (RER) is sensitive to different exchange rate regimesin Indonesia. Second, we find a long-run cointegrating relation between oil prices andthe RER over the float exchange rate regime. However, in the managed float period,there is no evidence of a long-run relation between oil prices and the RER. In the longrun, higher oil prices lead to an appreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar in thefloat period (post-August 1997 period). We demonstrate that these results are robust todifferent data frequencies.

Modeling the real exchange rate: looking for evidence of the wage-share effect

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 178-194
Author(s):  
Verónica De Jesús Romo ◽  
Julio López Gallardo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Var Models ◽  
The Real ◽  
Wage Share ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Difference

In this paper we study the determinants of the real exchange rate (RER), analysing in particular its association with the share of wages in output. We model the behavior of the RER against the US dollar of the domestic currency of three countries: Mexico, Korea, and France. We specify econometric vector autoregression (VAR) models and find for each country a long-run relation for the RER. In the three cases, we identify a negative association between the RER and the wage share and the RER, and the difference between the domestic and the US nominal interest rate. We also find that the RER is positively associated with labor productivity in Korea and France, but negatively associated in Mexico. We then suggest theoretical reasons for the type of associations found. As a corollary, we discuss the reasons that may explain why the RER tends to return to a long-run ‘normal’ value.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110529
Author(s):  
Ying-Sing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Rate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

scholarly journals The Limits to Dollarization in Ecuador: Lessons from Argentina

2011 ◽  
pp. 457-462
Author(s):  
Matias Vernengo ◽  
Mathew Bradbury
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financing Gap ◽  
Us Dollar

The paper draws lessons from the failed Argentine experience with convertibility to highlight the dangers of dollarization in Ecuador. Argentina’s currency peg to the US dollar was successful in reducing inflation but given the overvalued real exchange rate, created burgeoning twin deficits and a chronic dependency on foreign capital. Ecuador too suffers from chronic current account imbalance. In contrast to Argentina, Ecuador seems to be relying on remittance income to close its external financing gap. Though perhaps this model is less unstable than that of relying on foreign capital it is no more sustainable. The paper closes with a realistic critique of thisdevelopment strategy.

scholarly journals External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1049-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip R. Lane ◽  
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real

Fiscal shocks, the real exchange rate and the trade balance: some evidence for emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves da Silva ◽  
Diogo Baerlocher ◽  
Henrique Veras de Paiva Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

AbstractThis paper implements a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) analysis to investigate the impacts and importance of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the trade balance in three emerging economies: Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We show that the effects of an unexpected increase in government spending are not uniform across countries with higher spending leading to a depreciation of the real exchange rate in Brazil and Chile, whereas in Mexico, we observe an appreciation. The trade balance deteriorates in all three countries. We also report that an unexpected increase in taxes leads to recessionary impacts and improves the trade balance. Only in Mexico is there evidence of a real exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we show that fiscal shocks account for roughly 20% of real exchange fluctuations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document