Resource-based model for automatic cash-flow forecasting

1995 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 501-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Navon
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting

scholarly journals CASH FLOW FORECASTING WITH RISK CONSIDERATION USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS (BBNS)

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1045-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa KHANZADI ◽  
Ehsan ESHTEHARDIAN ◽  
Mahdiyar MOKHLESPOUR ESFAHANI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Cash Flow Management ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting

Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identifica­tion of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reli­ability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.

scholarly journals DEVELOPING A COST-PAYMENT COORDINATION MODEL FOR PROJECT COST FLOW FORECASTING / SĄNAUDŲ IR MOKĖJIMO KOORDINAVIMO MODELIO, SKIRTO PROJEKTŲ SĄNAUDŲ SRAUTŲ PROGNOZĖMS, KŪRIMAS

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Long Chen ◽  
Wei Tong Chen ◽  
Nai-Chieh Wei
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Coordination Mechanisms ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Coordination Model ◽  
General Acceptance ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Over Time

Project operating cash flow forecasting techniques have evolved to enable detailed predictions relating to individual projects. These techniques, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) model, extensively use project cost estimates and schedule data. Despite CSI models having gained general acceptance, they have not been without criticism. Such criticism includes the problems of differential schedules between network and cost activities, ignoring the important information of payment conditions composed of payment lags, components, and frequency, and the combined adverse effects of payment irregularity and uniform distribution of cost over time. To resolve and alleviate these problems, this study develops a set of cost-payment coordination mechanisms for creating interaction among cost and payment activities. These mechanisms are then developed into a model. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing the historical flows on two case projects. The result shows that the patterns of predicted cost flows created with the model closely match those of the historical flows. Santrauka Su projektų veikla susijusių pinigų srautų prognozavimo metodai atsirado siekiant sudaryti detalias prognozes atskiriems projektams. Šiuose metoduose, o dažniausia sąnaudų ir darbų grafiko integracijos (angl. Cost-schedule integration, CSI) modelyje dažnai naudojamos projektų sąmatos ir duomenys apie darbų grafiką. Nors apskritai sąnaudų ir darbų grafiko integracijos modeliai pripažinti tinkamais, jie buvo kritikuoti, nes kyla problemų dėl skirtingų tinklinių ir su sąnaudomis susijusios veiklos grafikų, taip pat ignoruojama svarbi informacija apie mokėjimo sąlygas, kurias sudaro mokėjimų vėlavimas, komponentai bei dažnis, ir bendrą neigiamą nereguliaraus mokėjimo bei vienodo sąnaudų pasiskirstymo laikui bėgant poveikį. Siekiant šias problemas sumažinti ir išspręsti, šiame tyrime sukuriama sąnaudų ir mokėjimo koordinavimo mechanizmų grupė, sukurianti sąveiką tarp veiklos, susijusios su sąnaudomis ir mokėjimu. Tuomet iš šių mechanizmų sudaromas modelis. Modelio tikslumas įvertinamas lyginant dviejų atvejui tirti pasirinktų projektų srautų istoriją. Rezultatas rodo, kad su modeliu sudarytose sąnaudų srautų prognozėse tendencijos labai artimos realių sąnaudų srautų istorijos tendencijoms.

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