Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is a vital ecosystem responsible each year for producing 50%–80% of new recruits to the North American duck population. Climate variability and change can impact the hydrology and ecology of the region with implications for waterfowl populations. The historical relationship between PPR wetlands, duck populations, and seasonal hydroclimate are explored. Model experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are used to determine whether a recent wetting trend is due to natural variability or changing climate and how PPR hydroclimate will change into the future. Year-to-year variations in May duck populations, pond numbers, and the Palmer drought severity index are well correlated over past decades. Pond and duck numbers tend to increase in spring following La Niña events, but the correlation is not strong. Model simulations suggest that the strengthening of the precipitation gradient across the PPR over the past century is predominantly due to natural variability and therefore could reverse. Model projections of future climate indicate precipitation will increase across the PPR in all seasons except summer, but this gain for surface moisture is largely offset by increased evapotranspiration because of higher temperatures and increased atmospheric evaporative demand. In summer, the combined effects of warming and precipitation changes indicate seasonal surface drying in the future. The presented hydroclimate analyses produce potential inputs to ecological and hydrological simulations of PPR wetlands to inform risk analysis of how this North American waterfowl habitat will evolve in the future, providing guidance to land managers facing conservation decisions.

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Feeding Ecology of Arctic-Nesting Sandpipers During Spring Migration Through the Prairie Pothole Region

Journal of Wildlife Management ◽

10.2193/2006-416 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 73 (2) ◽

pp. 248-252 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jan L. Eldridge ◽

Gary L. Krapu ◽

Douglas H. Johnson

Keyword(s):

Feeding Ecology ◽

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Spring Migration ◽

Prairie Pothole

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Remote Sensing of Surface Water Dynamics Between 2015 and 2020 in the Prairie Pothole Region

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8737 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Stefan Schlaffer ◽

Marco Chini ◽

Wouter Dorigo

Keyword(s):

Surface Water ◽

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Water Area ◽

Water Bodies ◽

Water Dynamics ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Prairie Pothole ◽

Small Water ◽

Wide Range ◽

Small Water Bodies

<p>The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) consists of millions of wetlands and holds great importance for biodiversity, water storage and flood management. The wetlands cover a wide range of sizes from a few square metres to several square kilometres. Prairie hydrology is greatly influenced by the threshold behaviour of potholes leading to spilling as well as merging of adjacent wetlands. The knowledge of seasonal and inter-annual surface water dynamics in the PPR is critical for understanding this behaviour of connected and isolated wetlands. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors, e.g. used by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission, have great potential to provide high-accuracy wetland extent maps even when cloud cover is present. We derived water extent during the ice-free months May to October from 2015 to 2020 by fusing dual-polarised Sentinel-1 backscatter data with topographical information. The approach was applied to a prairie catchment in North Dakota. Total water area, number of water bodies and median area per water body were computed from the time series of water extent maps. Surface water dynamics showed strong seasonal dynamics especially in the case of small water bodies (<&#160;1&#160;ha) with a decrease in water area and number of small water bodies from spring throughout summer when evaporation rates in the PPR are typically high. Larger water bodies showed a more stable behaviour during most years. Inter-annual dynamics were strongly related to drought indices based on climate data, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index. During the extremely wet period of late 2019 to 2020, the dynamics of both small and large water bodies changed markedly. While a larger number of small water bodies was encountered, which remained stable throughout the wet period, also the area of larger water bodies increased, partly due to merging of smaller adjacent water bodies. The results demonstrate the potential of Sentinel-1 data for long-term monitoring of prairie wetlands while limitations exist due to the rather low temporal resolution of 12 days over the PPR.</p>

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Delineating Grassland Bird Conservation Areas in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management ◽

10.3996/jfwm-022 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 38-42 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Rex R. Johnson ◽

Diane A. Granfors ◽

Neal D. Niemuth ◽

Michael E. Estey ◽

Ronald E. Reynolds

Keyword(s):

Spatial Data ◽

Conceptual Models ◽

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Grassland Birds ◽

Spatial Models ◽

Bird Conservation ◽

Prairie Pothole ◽

Conservation Areas ◽

Grassland Bird ◽

Landscape Characteristics

Abstract Conservation of birds is increasingly focused on the importance of landscape characteristics to sustain populations. Implementing conservation on a landscape scale requires reliable spatial models that provide biological context for conservation actions. Before species-specific models relating grassland birds to their habitat at landscape scales existed, we created a conceptual model and applied it to spatial data to identify priority grassland habitats for the protection and restoration of populations of area sensitive grassland birds in the Prairie Pothole Region. Since that time, these Grassland Bird Conservation Areas have been widely used to guide conservation, and variations of these models have been adopted in other regions; however, the process used to delineate them (i.e., the conceptual models) is poorly understood by many users. We describe that process here and offer perspectives on the utility and limitations of conceptual models, especially on the value of making assumptions that commonly underlie management decisions explicitly, thereby making the assumptions testable, and hopefully increasing management transparency, credibility, and efficiency.

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Assessment of USGS DEMs for modelling pothole inundation in the prairie pothole region of Iowa

Geocarto International ◽

10.1080/10106049.2019.1573852 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 35 (9) ◽

pp. 1018-1032 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. Upadhyay ◽

A.L. Kaleita ◽

M.L. Soupir

Keyword(s):

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Prairie Pothole

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