Conserving Australia’s threatened native mammals in predator-invaded, fire-prone landscapes

Inappropriate fire regimes and predation by introduced species each pose a major threat to Australia’s native mammals. They also potentially interact, an issue that is likely to be contributing to the ongoing collapse of native mammal communities across Australia. In the present review, I first describe the mechanisms through which fire could create predation pinch points, exacerbating the impacts of predators, including red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, and feral cats, Felis catus, on their native mammalian prey. These mechanisms include a localised increase in predator activity (a numerically mediated pathway) and higher predator hunting success after fire (a functionally moderated pathway), which could both increase native mammal mortality and limit population recovery in fire-affected landscapes. Evidence for such interactions is growing, although largely based on unreplicated experiments. Improving native mammal resilience to fire in predator-invaded landscapes requires addressing two key questions: how can the impacts of introduced predators on native mammals in fire-affected areas be reduced; and, does a reduction in predation by introduced species result in higher native mammal survival and population recovery after fire? I then examine potential management options for reducing predator impacts post-fire. The most feasible are landscape-scale predator control and the manipulation of fire regimes to create patchy fire scars. However, robust field experiments with adequate statistical power are required to assess the effectiveness of these approaches and preclude null (e.g. compensatory mortality) or adverse (e.g. mesopredator or competitor release) outcomes. Ongoing predator management and prescribed burning programs provide an opportunity to learn through replicated natural experiments as well as experimental manipulations. Standardised reporting protocols and cross-jurisdiction monitoring programs would help achieve necessary spatial and environmental replication, while multi-trophic, spatially explicit simulation models could help synthesise findings from disparate study designs, predict management outcomes and generate new hypotheses. Such approaches will be key to improving management of the complex mechanisms that drive threatened native mammal populations in Australia’s predator-invaded, fire-prone landscapes.