Population dynamics of feral horses (Equus caballus) in an exotic coniferous plantation in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena A. Zabek ◽  
David M. Berman ◽  
Simon P. Blomberg ◽  
Christina W. Collins ◽  
John Wright
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Body Condition Score ◽  
Equus Caballus ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Feral Horses ◽  
Adult Females ◽  
Coniferous Plantation ◽  
The Mean

Context Understanding population dynamics of invasive species is crucial for the development of management strategies. Feral horses (Equus caballus) are a growing problem in the Tuan–Toolara State Forest (TTSF), a coniferous plantation in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Aim The population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses was not known. Therefore, the study was designed to characterise the major vital parameters of this population and, using these data, develop a long-term management plan. Methods The study was conducted over 3 years (2011–14) involving 522 individually identified horses. Foaling rates were used to calculate fecundity. Body fat distribution was estimated using body condition score (BCS), which reflects the nutritional, metabolic and general health of individual animals. Multi state mark–capture population models were used to estimate age-specific survival, and the Leslie age-structured projection matrix model was used to determine the annual rate at which the population increased. Key results The mean annual fecundity was low (0.23 ± 0.07 s.d.). The mean BCS of the population was mid-range (2.55 ± 0.51 s.d.) with adult females having lower scores than other age and gender groups. Survival estimates were consistently high (0.92–0.95) across all age groups. The average annual finite rate of population increase (λ) for the 3 years of the study was 1.09. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the population growth rate was almost seven times more sensitive to changes in adult survival compared with juvenile survival, and almost twice as sensitive to changes in fecundity. Key conclusions Population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses were comparable to other feral horse populations similarly challenged by environmental nutritional limitations. Implications Defining population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses permits the formulation of management goals that can be audited and adapted as required. The most effective strategy for controlling population growth in the TTSF would involve the continuing removal of substantial numbers of adult females or manipulation of survival and/or fecundity. As selective removal will likely alter the adult sex ratio and age structure of the population, ongoing assessment is necessary to minimise adverse welfare outcomes.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

scholarly journals Spatial variation in giraffe demography: a test of 2 paradigms

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1015-1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek E. Lee ◽  
Monica L. Bond ◽  
Bernard M. Kissui ◽  
Yustina A. Kiwango ◽  
Douglas T. Bolger
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Adult Female ◽  
Vital Rate ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Adult Females ◽  
Calf Survival ◽  
Female Survival

Abstract Examination of spatial variation in demography among or within populations of the same species is a topic of growing interest in ecology. We examined whether spatial variation in demography of a tropical megaherbivore followed the “temporal paradigm” or the “adult survival paradigm” of ungulate population dynamics formulated from temperate-zone studies. We quantified spatial variation in demographic rates for giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) at regional and continental scales. Regionally, we used photographic capture-mark-recapture data from 860 adult females and 449 calves to estimate adult female survival, calf survival, and reproduction at 5 sites in the Tarangire ecosystem of Tanzania. We examined potential mechanisms for spatial variation in regional demographic rates. At the continental scale, we synthesized demographic estimates from published studies across the range of the species. We created matrix population models for all sites at both scales and used prospective and retrospective analyses to determine which vital rate was most important to variation in population growth rate. Spatial variability of demographic parameters at the continental scale was in agreement with the temporal paradigm of low variability in adult survival and more highly variable reproduction and calf survival. In contrast, at the regional scale, adult female survival had higher spatial variation, in agreement with the adult survival paradigm. At both scales, variation in adult female survival made the greatest contribution to variation in local population growth rates. Our work documented contrasting patterns of spatial variation in demographic rates of giraffes at 2 spatial scales, but at both scales, we found the same vital rate was most important. We also found anthropogenic impacts on adult females are the most likely mechanism of regional population trajectories.

scholarly journals Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10708
Author(s):  
Douglas C. Heard ◽  
Kathryn L. Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Supplemental Feeding ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Impact

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.

Age distribution of breeding female Antarctic fur seals in relation to changes in population growth rate

1990 ◽  
Vol 68 (10) ◽  
pp. 2209-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. L. Boyd ◽  
N. J. Lunn ◽  
P. Rothery ◽  
J. P. Croxall
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
South Georgia ◽  
Breeding Female ◽  
Fur Seals ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Antarctic Fur Seals

The age distribution of breeding female Antarctic fur seals at Bird Island, South Georgia, in 1988 was compared with the age distribution of a sample obtained in 1971–1973. The mean age in 1971–1973 was 7.41 (SE = 0.26) years and in 1988 it was 6.93 (SE = 0.20) years. After correction for age-dependent arrival time at the pupping beach in 1988, the mean age was 6.22 (SE = 0.14 years), which was significantly lower than in 1971–1973. Indicators of population size suggested that population growth at Bird Island had declined to below 3% annually by 1988 compared with rapid growth (17%) in 1958–1972. Exponential models fitted to the frequency distribution of age-classes greater than age 5 years and corrected for the rate of increase of the population gave adult survival rates of 0.66 (SE = 0.03) and 0.88 (SE = 0.02) for the 1988 and 1971–1973 samples, respectively. The reduced apparent adult survival rate in the 1988 sample was probably caused by emigration brought about by high densities of females on the pupping beaches. There are few signs from this analysis that the fur seal population at South Georgia is close to carrying capacity.

Population dynamics of the black-cheeked gnateater (Conopophaga melanops, Conopophagidae) in southern Brazil

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 605-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Magnani Xavier de Lima ◽  
James Joseph Roper
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Breeding Season ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Territory Size ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Annual Survival ◽  
Socially Monogamous ◽  
Population Structure And Dynamics

Abstract:Population structure and dynamics of the black-cheeked gnateater (Conopophaga melanops) were studied at Salto Morato Nature Reserve, in Paraná, southern Brazil, from October 2006 to September 2007. Territory size and population density, breeding season (timing and length), reproductive success and annual survival rates were estimated from sightings of 18 marked adult birds and the success of 18 nesting attempts. The black-cheeked gnateater is socially monogamous and territorial, with a breeding-season length of approximately 3 mo beginning in early October. Predation caused most nest failures, nest survival was 0.96 d−1and apparent annual nesting success was 22%, resulting in annual productivity of 0.36 individuals per adult. Apparent adult annual survival was ~0.44 y−1. Seventy-five per cent of fledglings survived at least 2 mo after fledging. Two methods of estimating population growth rate suggest very different rates: r = −0.04 (~ stable), or λ varies between 0.475–0.616 (declining). Yet, low apparent adult survival suggests that territories are not permanent, perhaps abandoned after nest failure. We find that by estimating population growth, even in short-term studies, testable hypotheses can be generated that will allow better understanding of population dynamics.

Estimating distribution and abundance of feral horses (Equus caballus) in a coniferous plantation in Australia, using line-transect surveys of dung

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena A. Zabek ◽  
David M. Berman ◽  
Simon Blomberg ◽  
John Wright
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Decay Rates ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Population Abundance ◽  
Horse Population ◽  
Feral Horses ◽  
Feral Horse ◽  
Coniferous Plantation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Strip Transect

Context Feral horses are a growing problem in Australia, despite implementation of management strategies. The incidence of horse sightings and horse-associated vehicle collisions within the Tuan and Toolara State Forest (TTSF), a coniferous plantation in south-eastern Queensland, has increased in the past decade, indicating an increase in population and the necessity to undertake an accurate appraisal of population abundance. Aim To determine the feasibility of using dung counts, defecation and dung-decay rates to determine the distribution and abundance of feral horse population in a managed coniferous plantation where dense vegetation prohibits the use of visual-based animal detection methods. Methods Population distribution was assessed by dung count incorporated into a vehicle strip-transect survey on 582 km of forest tracks. Population abundance was estimated from dung density, the mean defecation frequency of feral horses, and the mean number of days required for dung to decay. Dung density was obtained from on-ground distance line-transect survey that sampled all representative plantation habitats and consisted of 111 transects totalling 44.3 km. Key results The strip-transect survey clearly showed that although feral horses were dispersed across the plantation, the distribution was uneven, with the central region of the plantation being the most heavily populated. The combination of dung counts, defecation rate (mean ± s.d., 7.97 ± 8.74) over 24 h and dung-decay rate (444 ± 150.7 days) provided an estimation of the density of feral horses in various habitats and indicated that the plantation was occupied by 1321 (95% CI 940–1965) horses, which corresponded to an average density of 1.8 horses km–2. The method clearly identified variations in horse abundance among the various habitats within the surveyed areas. Open habitats, created following harvesting, showed higher occurrence rates, whereas the habitats of mature forest were scantily occupied. Key conclusions Dung counts are a simple, effective and practical technique that can provide information on distribution and abundance of feral horse population in densely forested habitats where visual-based techniques are not applicable. However, unbiased and precise defecation and decay rates must be estimated. Implications The study validated the use of dung counts to provide information on feral horse distribution and abundance in densely forested environments where direct methods of census may be difficult to obtain. The methods are applicable to a range of ecosystems, but defecation and dung-decay rates must be determined separately for each ecosystem.

scholarly journals Assessing the efficacy of medetomidine and tiletamine–zolazepam for remote immobilisation of feral horses (Equus caballus)

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (7) ◽  
pp. 615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena A. Zabek ◽  
John Wright ◽  
David M. Berman ◽  
Jordan O. Hampton ◽  
Christina W. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Vital Signs ◽  
Equus Caballus ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Feral Horses ◽  
Gps Collars ◽  
Physiological Variables ◽  
Management Actions

Context The study of any wild animal’s home range requires the collection of spatiotemporal data, obtained independently of climatic conditions or time of day. This can be achieved by the attachment of global positioning system (GPS) data loggers, which, in large species, is best achieved by remote immobilisation. Feral horses (Equus caballus) usually occupy remote areas of Australia; however, a considerable population increase has been observed in a close proximity to metropolitan areas of the Australian east coast, creating increasing conflict with human interests. Aim The aim of the present study was to investigate the efficacy of remote chemical immobilisation of feral horses with medetomidine combined with tiletamine–zolazepam to facilitate placement of satellite GPS collars. Methods Nine feral horses were darted from the ground with 60 mg (i.m.) medetomidine and 1500 mg (i.m.) tiletamine–zolazepam. The effects of medetomidine were reversed with 50–100 mg (i.m. or i.v.) atipamezole 30–40 min after induction (IV/IM). Physiological variables monitored during anaesthesia were heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature and oxygen haemoglobin saturation (Spo2). Key results All horses were successfully immobilised with between one and three darts (n = 9). The mean (± s.e.m.) dose of medetomidine was 0.15 ± 0.01 mg kg–1, whereas that of tiletamine–zolazepam was 3.61 ± 0.16 mg kg–1. Mean time from darting to lateral recumbency was 13.3 ± 2.7 min and mean recumbency time was 54 ± 13 min. Vital signs for all anaesthetised animals remained within the normal range during anaesthesia, with the exception of one animal exhibiting a transient drop in Spo2. There were no deaths. Key conclusions The combination of medetomidine and tiletamine–zolazepam provided adequate anaesthesia in feral horses in the field for application of GPS collars. Implications Although a limited number of horses was immobilised, the present study shows that the combination of medetomidine and tiletamine–zolazepam provides effective short-term anaesthesia for feral horses, affording a practical and field-accessible capture technique. This method could also be applied to other management actions requiring the safe and humane capture of feral horses.

scholarly journals Detecting Resource Limitation in a Large Herbivore Population Is Enhanced With Measures of Nutritional Condition

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan A. Oates ◽  
Kevin L. Monteith ◽  
Jacob R. Goheen ◽  
Jerod A. Merkle ◽  
Gary L. Fralick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Resource Limitation ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Nutritional Condition ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Environmental Covariates ◽  
Demographic Rates

Resource limitation at the population level is a function of forage quality and its abundance relative to its per capita availability, which in turn, determines nutritional condition of individuals. Effects of resource limitation on population dynamics in ungulates often occur through predictable and sequential changes in vital rates, which can enable assessments of how resource limitation influences population growth. We tested theoretical predictions of bottom-up (i.e., resource limitation) forcing on moose (Alces alces) through the lens of vital rates by quantifying the relative influence of intrinsic measures of nutritional condition and extrinsic measures of remotely sensed environmental data on demographic rates. We measured rates of pregnancy, parturition, juvenile, and adult survival for 82 adult females in a population where predators largely were absent. Life stage simulation analyses (LSAs) indicated that interannual fluctuations in adult survival contributed to most of the variability in λ. We then extended the LSA to estimate vital rates as a function of bottom-up covariates to evaluate their influence on λ. We detected weak signatures of effects from environmental covariates that were remotely sensed and spatially explicit to each seasonal range. Instead, nutritional condition strongly influenced rates of pregnancy, parturition, and overwinter survival of adults, clearly implicating resource limitation on λ. Our findings depart from the classic life-history paradigm of population dynamics in ungulates in that adult survival was highly variable and generated most of the variability in population growth rates. At the surface, lack of variation explained by environmental covariates may suggest weak evidence of resource limitation in the population, when nutritional condition actually underpinned most demographics. We suggest that variability in vital rates and effects of resource limitation may depend on context more than previously appreciated, and density dependence can obfuscate the relationships between remotely sensed data and demographic rates.

Persistence of giants: population dynamics of the limpet Scutellastra laticostata on rocky shores in Western Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 646 ◽  
pp. 79-92
Author(s):  
RE Scheibling ◽  
R Black
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Maximum Size ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Rocky Shores ◽  
Adult Size ◽  
Decadal Time Scale

Population dynamics and life history traits of the ‘giant’ limpet Scutellastra laticostata on intertidal limestone platforms at Rottnest Island, Western Australia, were recorded by interannual (January/February) monitoring of limpet density and size structure, and relocation of marked individuals, at 3 locations over periods of 13-16 yr between 1993 and 2020. Limpet densities ranged from 4 to 9 ind. m-2 on wave-swept seaward margins of platforms at 2 locations and on a rocky notch at the landward margin of the platform at a third. Juvenile recruits (25-55 mm shell length) were present each year, usually at low densities (<1 m-2), but localized pulses of recruitment occurred in some years. Annual survival rates of marked limpets varied among sites and cohorts, ranging from 0.42 yr-1 at the notch to 0.79 and 0.87 yr-1 on the platforms. A mass mortality of limpets on the platforms occurred in 2003, likely mediated by thermal stress during daytime low tides, coincident with high air temperatures and calm seas. Juveniles grew rapidly to adult size within 2 yr. Asymptotic size (L∞, von Bertalanffy growth model) ranged from 89 to 97 mm, and maximum size from 100 to 113 mm, on platforms. Growth rate and maximum size were lower on the notch. Our empirical observations and simulation models suggest that these populations are relatively stable on a decadal time scale. The frequency and magnitude of recruitment pulses and high rate of adult survival provide considerable inertia, enabling persistence of these populations in the face of sporadic climatic extremes.

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