Precision, accuracy and bias of walked line-transect distance sampling to estimate eastern grey kangaroo population size

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Glass ◽  
David M. Forsyth ◽  
Graeme Coulson ◽  
Marco Festa-Bianchet
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Good Precision ◽  
Design Elements ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Grey Kangaroo ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Free Ranging

Context Distance sampling is widely used to estimate the size of wildlife populations, including kangaroos. However, the performance of distance-sampling abundance estimates has seldom been evaluated for wild mammal populations of known size. Aims We evaluated the precision, accuracy, bias and interval coverage of abundance estimates from walked line-transect sampling, a commonly used distance-sampling method, for a marked free-ranging population of eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) at Yanakie Isthmus, Wilsons Promontory National Park, south-eastern Australia. Methods In each of two study periods (November 2012 and May 2013) we first determined the true size of the uniquely marked kangaroo population by conducting 10 intensive searches of the study area. We then conducted distance sampling along six systematically spaced line transects. We walked each transect four times in November 2012 and seven times in May 2013. Data were analysed using Program DISTANCE. Key results Our intensive searches revealed that 141 and 124 collared kangaroos were present in the study area in November 2012 and May 2013, respectively. When transects were walked four or more times (i.e. ≥400 observations), maximum precision (coefficient of variation; CV of ~13%) was achieved in both survey periods. Walking transects twice (i.e. ~200 observations) produced abundance estimates with CVs of <20% in each study period. The accuracy (root mean square error) of abundance estimates varied from 1 to 13 (November 2012) and from 3 to 28 (May 2013). Bias ranged from −9% to +23%, but stabilised at between −1% and −9% when transects were walked four or more times in each study period. The 95% confidence intervals for the abundance estimates always included the true population size. Conclusions Our results indicated that walked line-transect distance sampling is a precise and accurate method for estimating eastern grey kangaroo abundance. The small negative biases that occurred when sample sizes were large were likely to be due to some animals moving outside the study area. Implications Provided that the key design elements and assumptions are met, estimates of kangaroo abundance from walked line-transect distance sampling should have good precision (CV < 20%) and minimal (<10%) bias.

Bridled Quail-dove Geotrygon mystacea population assessment after hurricanes Irma and Maria, St. Eustatius, Caribbean Netherlands

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
FRANK F. RIVERA-MILÁN ◽  
HANNAH MADDEN ◽  
KEVIN VERDEL
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Food Limitation ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Detection Mode ◽  
Limited Food ◽  
Seed Eating ◽  
Free Ranging

Summary Structural vegetation damage and food limitation are important effects of major hurricanes, particularly for fruit/seed-eating, forest-dependent Caribbean birds with restricted distributions and small populations, such as the Bridled Quail-dove Geotrygon mystacea. Motivated by the lack of abundance estimates, corrected for detection probability, we conducted distance-sampling surveys inside and outside the Quill National Park each May in 2016-2019. Detection mode was the most important covariate, with others receiving no support from the data. Detectability of available single individuals and clusters of individuals within 60 m of transect centrelines averaged 0.957 ± 0.114 standard error for audio detections, 0.434 ± 0.052 for visual detections, and 0.693 ± 0.064 for detection modes combined. Availability averaged 0.475 ± 0.138 and the product of detectability and availability averaged 0.329 ± 0.098. Density averaged 1.459 ± 0.277 individuals ha-1 and population size averaged 642 ± 122 individuals in 440 ha. Density did not differ along and away from forest trails, but was higher inside than outside the park and at elevations within 201-400 m than 100-200 m and 401-600 m. Density declined by 76% after hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. We suggest that major hurricanes together with free-ranging livestock overgrazing degraded foraging habitats, limited food supply, and caused a population bottleneck. Our methodology can be implemented across the distribution range to assess population status and trends and evaluate the result of management actions at key conservation sites. Bridled Quail-dove populations probably were declining on most islands before the 2017 hurricanes and population status warrants revision.

The importance of survey design in distance sampling: field evaluation using domestic sheep

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom A. Porteus ◽  
Suzanne M. Richardson ◽  
Jonathan C. Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Field Evaluation ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Domestic Sheep ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Mobile Species

Context Sampling methods to estimate animal density require good survey design to ensure assumptions are met and sampling is representative of the survey area. Management decisions are often made based on these estimates. However, without knowledge of true population size it is not possible for wildlife biologists to evaluate how biased the estimates can be if survey design is compromised. Aims Our aims were to use distance sampling to estimate population size for domestic sheep free-ranging within large enclosed areas of hill country and, by comparing estimates against actual numbers, examine how bias and precision are impaired when survey design is compromised. Methods We used both line and point transect sampling to derive estimates of density for sheep on four farms in upland England. In Stage I we used limited effort and different transect types to compromise survey design. In Stage II we increased effort in an attempt to improve on the Stage I estimates. We also examined the influence of a walking observer on sheep behaviour to assess compliance with distance sampling assumptions and to improve the fit of models to the data. Key results Our results show that distance sampling can lead to biased and imprecise density estimates if survey design is poor, particularly when sampling high density and mobile species that respond to observer presence. In Stage I, walked line transects were least biased; point transects were most biased. Increased effort in Stage II reduced the bias in walked line transect estimates. For all estimates, the actual density was within the derived 95% confidence intervals, but some of these spanned a range of over 100 sheep per km2. Conclusions Using a population of known size, we showed that survey design is vitally important in achieving unbiased and precise density estimation using distance sampling. Adequate transect replication reduced the bias considerably within a compromised survey design. Implications Management decisions based on poorly designed surveys must be made with an appropriate understanding of estimate uncertainty. Failure to do this may lead to ineffective management.

scholarly journals Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

2005 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 807-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artur Andriolo ◽  
Ubiratan Piovezan ◽  
Mateus José Rodrigues Paranhos da Costa ◽  
Jeff Laake ◽  
José Maurício Barbanti Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Sampling Methodology ◽  
Future Analysis ◽  
Line Transect Survey ◽  
Blastocerus Dichotomus ◽  
The Impact

The objective was to estimate abundance of marsh deer in the Paraná River basin of this work. The results provided information to support further analysis of the impact of the Porto Primavera flooding lake over population. Sixty-nine animals were recorded by aerial survey using distance sampling methodology. Animals were widely distributed throughout the study area. The uncorrected data resulted in a estimate density of 0.0035 ind/ha and a population size of 636 individuals. Correcting the g for the animals that could be missed the calculated abundance was 896 (CV=0.27) individuals. This methodology was applied with success to survey marsh deer. The result was important to evaluate the marsh deer status in the area, and for future analysis of the impact of the flooding dam.

Estimating the population size of a threatened arboreal marsupial: use of distance sampling to dispense with ad hoc survey techniques

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. de Tores ◽  
Sue Elscot
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Biological Information ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Land Use Decisions

Context. Long-term land-use decisions potentially affecting the conservation status of rare fauna are often based on a dearth of relevant biological information and population estimates are regularly derived from ad hoc methodologies. This can significantly affect the outcomes from development assessment and approval processes. Aim. Our aims were to apply distance-sampling techniques to derive robust, quantitative estimates of the population size of a threatened arboreal marsupial, the western ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus occidentalis Thomas, 1888), demonstrate the advantages of this approach and, in doing so, provide conservation managers, decision makers and consultants with a reliable framework for surveying the species. Methods. We used line-transect sampling to derive estimates of density and abundance for P. occidentalis at two sites in south-western Western Australia where estimates were previously derived through ad hoc techniques. Key results. Our findings support the assertion that previous surveys of P. occidentalis populations have underestimated the population size to a varying extent at both of our survey sites. Land-use and development-application decisions have previously been based on similar surveys. Conclusions. Distance sampling, if applied routinely when surveying P. occidentalis, will reduce the uncertainty associated with derived estimates of abundance. Implications. Appropriate use of distance-sampling methods will enable managers and decision makers to assess more quantitatively the potential effect from, and place appropriate approval conditions on, proposals that modify or destroy P. occidentalis habitat. The use of the program Distance will enable such decisions to be based on robust, repeatable estimates of population size, with quantified confidence limits and variance estimates.

Use of line transect methods to estimate abundance of benthic stream fishes

1995 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 213-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
William E. Ensign ◽  
Paul L. Angermeier ◽  
C. Andrew Dolloff
Keyword(s):  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Stream Fishes ◽  
Visual Estimation ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Benthic Stream ◽  
Roanoke Logperch ◽  
Strip Transect ◽  
Stream Salmonid

Visual estimation of stream salmonid abundance using strip transect sighting models has become commonplace. Application of visual estimation to other stream fishes, particularly benthic forms, has been limited. Examination of the distribution of sighting distances for the Roanoke darter (Percina roanoka), Roanoke logperch (P. rex), and black jumprock (Moxostoma cervinum) indicates that strip transect sighting models that assume probability of sighting remaining constant out to the limits of observer visibility are not appropriate for these benthic species. Our datasets indicate that distance sampling models that assume decreased sighting probability with increasing distance of the target from the observer provide a reasonable alternative to strip transect sighting models. There was a strong positive correlation between abundance estimates calculated using two alternative distance sampling models, as well as between the distance sampling model estimates and an estimate of abundance obtained with a backpack electroshocker.

scholarly journals Added Value: Gopher Tortoise Surveys Provide Estimates of Gopher Frog Abundance in Tortoise Burrows

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lora L Smith ◽  
Jennifer M. Howze ◽  
Jennifer S. Staiger ◽  
Eric R. Sievers ◽  
Deborah Burr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Gopher Tortoise ◽  
Gopherus Polyphemus ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Mean Width ◽  
The Status ◽  
Terrestrial Life

The gopher frog Lithobates capito is one of the most terrestrial frogs in the southeastern U.S. and often inhabits gopher tortoise burrows Gopherus polyphemus outside of the breeding season. Gopher frog populations have declined, and the species is under review for listing as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Much of our knowledge on the status of gopher frogs is based on detections of larvae at breeding wetlands, which can be challenging due to environmental variability and provides no information on the terrestrial life stages of the species. Therefore, an alternative method is called for. We recorded observations of gopher frogs during gopher tortoise surveys at four conservation lands in Florida and used line transect distance sampling to estimate frog abundance. We also recorded burrow size, incidence of frog co-occupancy with tortoises, and distance from frog-occupied burrows to breeding wetlands. We observed 274 gopher frogs in 1,097 tortoise burrows at the four sites. The proportion of burrows occupied by gopher frogs among sites ranged from 0.17 to 0.25. Gopher frog abundance in tortoise burrows was 742 (512–1,076 95% CL) at Etoniah Creek State Forest, 465 (352–615) at Ft. White Wildlife Environmental Area, 411(283–595) at Mike Roess Gold Head Branch State Park, and 134 (97–186) at Watermelon Pond Wildlife Environmental Area. We observed up to four frogs in a single burrow. The proportion of frogs detected in burrows occupied by a gopher tortoise ranged from 0.46 to 0.79 among sites, and overall, gopher frogs preferred burrows occupied by tortoises over unoccupied burrows (χ 2 = 15.875, df=3, p = 0.001). Gopher frogs used burrows from 7 to 43 cm in width; mean width of frog-occupied burrows did not differ from that of unoccupied burrows ( F 1,3 = 0.0492, p = 0.8245). Distance from frog-occupied tortoise burrows to the nearest breeding wetland ranged from 141 to 3,402 m. Our data on gopher frogs collected in conjunction with gopher tortoise monitoring efforts using line transect distance sampling and burrow cameras provided novel information on frog abundance in their terrestrial habitat and required no additional effort. However, the extent to which frogs use tortoise burrows relative to other available refuges (small mammal burrows, stumps, or other structures) is unknown, thus our estimates should be considered conservative. We suggest that terrestrial abundance estimates for gopher frogs can complement efforts to monitor breeding activity to provide a more comprehensive means of monitoring population trends in this cryptic species.

scholarly journals Abundance estimates and trends for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Antarctic Areas IV and V based on JARPA sightings data

2020 ◽  
pp. 75-94
Author(s):  
Koji Matsuoka ◽  
Takashi Hakamada ◽  
Hiroshi Kiwada ◽  
Hiroto Murase ◽  
Shigetoshi Nishiwaki
Keyword(s):  
Selection Criterion ◽  
Megaptera Novaeangliae ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Additional Variance

Sighting survey data from the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPA) are analysed to obtain abundanceestimates for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) south of 60°S. The surveys were conducted during the 1989/90–2004/05 austral summerseasons (mainly in January and February); the survey areas alternated between Area IV (70°E–130°E) and Area V (130°E to 170°W) each year.Primary sighting effort totalled 293,811 n.miles over 6,188 days. Abundance estimates are obtained using standard line transect analysis methodsand the program DISTANCE. Estimated densities of humpback whales were highest east of the Kerguelen Plateau (80°E–120°E). Abundanceestimates for Area IV range from 2,747 (CV = 0.153) in 1993/94 to 31,134 (CV = 0.123) in 2001/02, while those for Area V range from 602 (CV= 0.343) in 1990/91 to 9,342 (CV = 0.337) in 2004/05. The estimates are similar to those obtained from the International Whaling Commission’sIDCR-SOWER surveys, which were conducted in Area IV (in 1978/79, 1988/89 and 1998/99) and in Area V (in 1980/81, 1991/92 and 2001/02–2003/04). Estimated annual rates of increase for Area IV (16.4%; 95% CI = 9.5–23.3%) and Area V (12.1%; 95% CI = 1.7–22.6%) are also similarto those obtained from the IDCR-SOWER surveys. The total abundance in Areas IV and V based on the most recent JARPA surveys (2003/04 and2004/05 combined) is 37,125 (95% CI = 21,349–64,558); the confidence interval incorporates estimated additional variance. Results of severalsensitivity tests are presented that suggest that estimates of abundance and trends are not appreciably affected by factors such as different approachesto deal with survey coverage (which in some cases was poor or included gaps). Changes in the order in which survey strata were covered andpotential effects are investigated using a nested GLM approach; a QAIC model selection criterion suggests a preference for not attempting to adjustfor such changes. Under various sensitivity approaches, the point estimates of increase rates are not greatly affected for Area IV. Although theydrop by typically a half for most approaches for Area V, they nevertheless remain within the confidence limits of the base case estimate of 12.1%per year (95% CI = 1.7–22.6%). The presented results thus suggest that the estimated abundance of humpback whales in Area IV has increasedrapidly. Although there is also an increase indicated for Area V, it is neither as rapid nor as precisely estimated. Taking these results together withthe similar rates of increase estimated from coastal surveys off western and eastern Australia for Breeding Stocks D and E respectively, and givendemographic limitations on the increase rates possible for closed populations of humpback whales, the hypothesis is advanced that whales fromBreeding Stock E may have shifted their feeding distribution westward as their numbers have increased, perhaps to take advantage of the higherdensities of krill to be found to the west.

Methods for Small-Scale Surveys of Grey Kangaroo Populations

1985 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119 ◽  
Author(s):  
GM Coulson ◽  
JA Raines
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Faecal Pellet ◽  
Critical Conditions ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Faecal Pellets ◽  
Grey Kangaroo ◽  
Pellet Counts ◽  
Transect Counts

Small-scale survey methods which have previously been applied to grey kangaroos were evaluated on a population of known size. The total population size of free-ranging eastern grey kangaroos, Macropus giganteus, on Rotamah Island in the Gippsland Lakes of Victoria was determined by a drive count. Two types of small-scale survey methods were evaluated against this total: line transect counts and faecal pellet counts. The line transect estimates were not significantly different from the known population size, and grey kangaroos appear to meet the critical conditions of the models. Counts of individual faecal pellets gave an acceptable estimate of population density, whereas counts based on pellet groups had significant positive bias.

scholarly journals Abundance estimation for line transect sampling: A comparison of distance sampling and spatial capture-recapture models

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252231
Author(s):  
Nathan J. Crum ◽  
Lisa C. Neyman ◽  
Timothy A. Gowan
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Abundance Estimation ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Line Transects ◽  
Nominal Coverage

Accurate and precise abundance estimation is vital for informed wildlife conservation and management decision-making. Line transect surveys are a common sampling approach for abundance estimation. Distance sampling is often used to estimate abundance from line transect survey data; however, search encounter spatial capture-recapture can also be used when individuals in the population of interest are identifiable. The search encounter spatial capture-recapture model has rarely been applied, and its performance has not been compared to that of distance sampling. We analyzed simulated datasets to compare the performance of distance sampling and spatial capture-recapture abundance estimators. Additionally, we estimated the abundance of North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States with two formulations of each model and compared the estimates. Spatial capture-recapture abundance estimates had lower root mean squared error than distance sampling estimates. Spatial capture-recapture 95% credible intervals for abundance had nominal coverage, i.e., contained the simulating value for abundance in 95% of simulations, whereas distance sampling credible intervals had below nominal coverage. Moreover, North Atlantic right whale abundance estimates from distance sampling models were more sensitive to model specification compared to spatial capture-recapture estimates. When estimating abundance from line transect data, researchers should consider using search encounter spatial capture-recapture when individuals in the population of interest are identifiable, when line transects are surveyed over multiple occasions, when there is imperfect detection of individuals located on the line transect, and when it is safe to assume the population of interest is closed demographically. When line transects are surveyed over multiple occasions, researchers should be aware that individual space use may induce spatial autocorrelation in counts across transects. This is not accounted for in common distance sampling estimators and leads to overly precise abundance estimates.

scholarly journals Getting the Most From Surveys: How Method Selection and Method Modification Impact Butterfly Survey Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine C Kral-O’Brien ◽  
Adrienne K Antonsen ◽  
Torre J Hovick ◽  
Ryan F Limb ◽  
Jason P Harmon
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
New Species ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Similar Species ◽  
Method Selection ◽  
M 10 ◽  
Sampling Procedures

Abstract Many methods are used to survey butterfly populations, with line transect and area surveys being prominent. Observers are typically limited to search within 5 or 10 m from the line, while observers are unrestricted in larger specified search regions in area surveys. Although methods differ slightly, the selection is often based on producing defendable data for conservation, maximizing data quality, and minimizing effort. To guide method selection, we compared butterfly surveys using 1) line versus area methods and 2) varying width transects (5 m, 10 m, or unrestricted) using count data from surveys in North Dakota from 2015 to 2018. Between line and area surveys, we detected more individuals with area surveys, even when accounting for effort. However, both methods accumulated new species at similar rates. When comparing transect methodology, we detected nearly 60% more individuals and nine more species when transect width increased from 5 m to unrestricted, despite similar effort across methodology. Overall, we found line surveys slightly less efficient at detecting individuals, but they collected similar species richness to area surveys when accounting for effort. Additionally, line surveys allow the use of unrestricted-width transects with distance sampling procedures, which were more effective at detecting species and individuals while providing a means to correct count data over the same transect length. Methods that reduce effort and accurately depict communities are especially important for conservation when long-term datasets are unavailable.

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