Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Rolland ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hostetler ◽  
Tommy C. Hines ◽  
Fred A. Johnson ◽  
H. Franklin Percival ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Winter Survival ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Annual Changes

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (λS = 0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, λS would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further.

scholarly journals Population growth rates: issues and an application

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1425) ◽  
pp. 1307-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Charles J. Godfray ◽  
Mark Rees
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategy ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Population Growth Rates

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering.

scholarly journals Identifying the paths of climate effects on population dynamics: dynamic and multilevel structural equation model around the annual cycle

Oecologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 195 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-538
Author(s):  
Vesa Selonen ◽  
Samuli Helle ◽  
Toni Laaksonen ◽  
Markus P. Ahola ◽  
Esa Lehikoinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Migration Route ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Climate Signal

AbstractHow environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal.

scholarly journals Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (110) ◽  
pp. 20150435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasmine Samia ◽  
Frithjof Lutscher ◽  
Alan Hastings
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Fish Population ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Migration Barriers ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Structural Indices

The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a ‘retention effect’. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics.

An Evaluation of RNA–DNA Ratio as a Measure of Long-Term Growth in Fish Populations

1973 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry A. Haines
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Smallmouth Bass ◽  
Fish Populations ◽  
Population Growth Rates

The value of RNA–DNA ratio as a measure of long-term growth of fish populations under semi-natural conditions and when subjected to environmental manipulations was determined. Populations of carp and smallmouth bass of known age distribution were established in artificial ponds maintained at two fertility levels. After 15 months, population growth rates (as percent increase in weight) and RNA–DNA ratios of muscle tissue from selected fish were measured. Each species exhibited a range of population growth rates. The relation between population growth rate and individual fish RNA–DNA ratio for each species was significant. When reproduction occurred, the relation was not significant unless young-of-the-year fish were excluded from population growth rate calculations. Age of fish was also found to have an important effect on RNA–DNA ratio, with the ratio being higher in younger fish.RNA–DNA ratio can be a reliable indicator of long-term population growth in fish when population age structure is known and recruitment is controlled. The method has potential for use in detecting response to environmental changes before growth rate changes become severe.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Diagnosing declining grassland wader populations using simple matrix models

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lia Hemerik ◽  
Chris Klok ◽  
Maja Roodbergen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Matrix Models ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Adult Stage ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Survival And Reproduction

AbstractMany populations of wader species have shown a strong decline in number in Western-Europe in recent years. The use of simple population models such as matrix models can contribute to conserve these populations by identifying the most profitable management measures. Parameterization of such models is often hampered by the availability of demographic data (survival and reproduction). In particular, data on survival in the pre-adult (immature) stage of wader species that remain in wintering areas outside Europe are notoriously difficult to obtain, and are therefore virtually absent in the literature. To diagnose population decline in the wader species; Black-tailed Godwit, Curlew, Lapwing, Oystercatcher, and Redshank, we extended an existing modelling framework in which incomplete demographic data can be analysed, developed for species with a pre-adult stage of one year. The framework is based on a Leslie matrix model with three parameters: yearly reproduction (number of fledglings per pair), yearly pre-adult (immature) and yearly adult (mature) survival. The yearly population growth rate of these populations and the relative sensitivity of this rate to changes in survival and reproduction parameters (the elasticity) were calculated numerically and, if possible, analytically. The results showed a decrease in dependence on reproduction and an increase in pre-adult survival of the population growth rate with an increase in the duration of the pre-adult stage. In general, adult survival had the highest elasticity, but elasticity of pre-adult survival increased with time to first reproduction, a result not reported earlier. Model results showed that adult survival and reproduction estimates reported for populations of Redshank and Curlew were too low to maintain viable populations. Based on the elasticity patterns and the scope for increase in actual demographic parameters we inferred that conservation of the Redshank and both Curlew populations should focus on reproduction. For one Oystercatcher and the Black-tailed Godwit populations we suggested a focus on both reproduction and pre-adult survival. For the second Oystercatcher population pre-adult survival seemed the most promising target for conservation. And for the Lapwing populations all demographic parameters should be considered.

scholarly journals A POPULATION OF LYCHNOPHORA ERICOIDES MART. (ARNICA) (ASTERACEAE) IS PRONE TO EXTINCTION IN A SAVANNA OF CENTRAL BRAZIL

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Ribeiro-Silva ◽  
M. B. Medeiros ◽  
V. V. F. Lima ◽  
A. B. Giroldo ◽  
S. E. de Noronha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Life Stages ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Non Timber Forest Products

Lychnophora ericoides Mart. (Asteraceae), popularly known as arnica, is a plant species subjected to non-timber forest products extraction. Evidence is mounting that some local populations are on the brink of extinction. However, demographic studies of Lychnophora ericoides are rare. Therefore, as a step towards conservation, a remnant population of Lychnophora ericoides located in an area of the Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) in Central Brazil was evaluated from 2010 through 2014. Disturbances such as wildfires and harvesting of Lychnophora ericoides were randomly distributed throughout the study period in this area. Four annual transition matrices (A1, A2, A3 and A4) were constructed, based on life stages. The main results of studies of population dynamics for this species are as follows: 1) population growth rates (λ) with 95% confidence intervals indicated a declining population in all periods from 2010 to 2014; 2) stochastic population growth rate considering the four matrices was < 1 with value λ = 0.358 and CI95% = (0.354–0.362); 3) survival with permanence at the same stage of reproductive adult individuals (46–80%) contributed most to population growth rate, based on elasticity analysis; 4) the population is much less likely to have increases in density, compared with reduction, for all intervals from 2010 to 2014, based on transient indices; 5) the low value of λ in the high-mortality year was caused by lower stasis of individuals in the seedling or sapling and juvenile life stages, as well as fecundity in the 2011–2012 and 2012–2013 intervals, as shown by a life table response experiment; and 6) 100% of the population will probably be extinct within 15 years. There is evidence that the main cause for local extinction of Lychnophora ericoides could be the effects of frequent wildfires. Based on these results, it is suggested that the time has come for significant conservation efforts to rescue this population, including monitoring, protection and education as the first steps towards protection of this vulnerable plant species.

scholarly journals Contrasting effects of climate on grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl populations

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Boyle ◽  
Jim Hone
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Barn Owl ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Grey Heron

Context The population dynamics of many wildlife species are associated with fluctuations in climate. Food and abundance may also influence wildlife dynamics. Aims The present paper aims to evaluate the relative effects of climate on the annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) of the following three bird species: grey heron and barn owl in parts of Britain and malleefowl in a part of Australia. Methods A priori hypotheses of mechanistic effects of climate are derived and evaluated using information theoretic and regression analyses and published data for the three bird species. Climate was measured as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for herons and owls, and rainfall and also the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for malleefowl. Key results Population dynamics of grey heron were positively related to the winter NAO, and of malleefowl were positively related to annual rainfall and related in a non-linear manner to SOI. By contrast, population dynamics of barn owl were very weakly related to climate. The best models for the grey heron differed between time periods but always included an effect of the NAO. Conclusions The annual population growth rate of grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl show contrasting relationships with climate, from stronger (heron and malleefowl) to weaker (barn owl). The results were broadly consistent with reported patterns but differed in some details. Interpretation of the effects of climate on the basis of analyses rather than visual assessment is encouraged. Implications Effects of climate differ among species, so effects of future climate change may also differ.

DETRITUS AS A FACTOR INFLUENCING POPULATION GROWTH RATES OF THREE TENEBRIONID BEETLES IN STORED CORN

1989 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 454-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard T. Arbogast
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Tribolium Castaneum ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Prime Factor ◽  
Fine Dust ◽  
Stored Grain ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Insect Activity

Experiments showed that changes in population growth rate due to detritus produced by insect activity in stored grain varies with species and is a prime factor determining ecological succession of secondary grain pests. Cynaeus angustus (LeConte), Latheticus oryzae Waterhouse, and Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) were reared on a 1:1 mixture of whole and cracked corn. On this diet, T. castaneum showed the highest rate of population growth and L. oryzae the lowest. Population growth of T. castaneum and L. oryzae was stimulated by adding fine dust (collected from infested corn) or dead moths to the diet, and this effect was much greater in L. oryzae than in T. castaneum. Population growth of C. angustus (as indicated by number of adults) was not affected by supplementation of the diet, but larger larval populations were produced on supplemented corn. The results are related to previously reported observations of succession in stored corn.

Inbreeding in the field: an experiment on root vole populations

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (10) ◽  
pp. 1901-1905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gry Gundersen ◽  
Jon Aars ◽  
Harry P Andreassen ◽  
Rolf A Ims
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Field Experiment ◽  
Inbreeding Depression ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Demographic Parameter ◽  
Microtus Oeconomus ◽  
Geographic Race ◽  
Reproductive Rates

We used a field experiment with replicate populations of a particular geographic race of root voles (Microtus oeconomus) with different degrees of inbreeding to test whether inbreeding effects were expressed in demographic parameters. This geographic race had been shown to exhibit reduced reproductive rates in the laboratory resulting from inbreeding depression. There were no effects of inbreeding on population growth rate or any demographic parameter. Inbred animals grew less than outbred animals early in the summer, but this had no demographic consequences. Our study is one of the few to compare the performance of the same species in the laboratory and in the field with respect to the extent of inbreeding depression. More such comparisons will be needed to determine whether inbreeding is detrimental more often in the field than in the laboratory.

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