Predicting the effect of immunocontraceptive recombinant murine cytomegalovirus on population outbreaks of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) in mallee wheatlands

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 631 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Arthur ◽  
R. P. Pech ◽  
G. R. Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Murine Cytomegalovirus ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Single Strain ◽  
Mouse Population ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Population Outbreak ◽  
Successful Control

Virally vectored immunocontraception using a modified murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) is being developed for the control of house mice in Australia. In this paper, we develop disease–host models using a combination of laboratory and field data. We then combine these models with a model of a previous mouse population outbreak to explore the likely effectiveness of modified MCMV for controlling mice. Models of homogeneous mixing with and without vertical/pseudovertical transmission provided reasonable fits to field serological data collected during the onset and development of a mouse population outbreak in south-eastern Australia. Both models include the high transmission rate of MCMV suggested by the data. We found no strong support for non-linear contact rates or heterogeneous mixing. When applied to a past outbreak of mice both models gave similar results and suggested that immunocontraceptive MCMV could be effective at reducing agricultural damage to acceptable levels. Successful control was still possible when lags in the development of infertility of up to 10 weeks were added to the model, provided high levels of infertility were achieved. These lags were added because mice can become pregnant just before becoming infertile – the resultant litter would not emerge for 6–7 weeks. Trade-offs between two parameters that could be altered by engineering strains of MCMV – the level of infertility in infected mice and the virus transmission rate – were explored and suggest that a variety of parameter combinations could produce successful control. Our results are encouraging for the future development of virally vectored immunocontraception control of house mice, but future work will need to consider some of the assumptions of these single-strain models.

The transmission rate of MCMV in house mice in pens: implications for virally vectored immunocontraception

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 386 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Arthur ◽  
C. J. Krebs ◽  
R. P. Pech ◽  
L. N. Farroway ◽  
G. R. Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Wild Mouse ◽  
Fertility Control ◽  
Murine Cytomegalovirus ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Recombinant Viruses ◽  
Economic Thresholds ◽  
Rapid Transmission ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Free Ranging

Pest mammals have severe economic, environmental and social impacts throughout the world. Fertility control could reduce these impacts. Murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) is being considered as an immunocontraceptive vector to control outbreaks of house mice (Mus domesticus) in Australian grain-growing regions. For successful control, a modified MCMV must transmit at a sufficient rate to keep populations of house mice below acceptable economic thresholds. We used disease models developed previously by using observations of free-ranging wild-mouse populations to assess the transmission rate of two laboratory strains of MCMV (N1 and G4) collected in a previous experiment. Mice contained in pens were deliberately infected with the N1 strain only, or with the N1 strain followed by the G4 strain. If we assume density-dependent transmission, which is the more likely mode of transmission, we found the N1 strain of MCMV transmitted at a rate ~1/300 of the rate of field strains, and hence too slowly for successful virally vectored immunocontraception (VVIC). If transmission was frequency-dependent, the rate of transmission was ~1/3 of the rate of field strains, and hence may allow successful VVIC. The G4 strain transmitted at least as slowly as the N1 strain, and possibly much more slowly; however, we could not determine whether this was an inherent property of the G4 strain or whether it was caused by competition with the N1 strain. Given the reliance of successful VVIC on rapid transmission, we recommend that future work in any VVIC system explicitly quantifies the transmission rate of recombinant viruses relative to field strains, both in the presence and absence of competing strains.

Can outbreaks of house mice in south-eastern Australia be predicted by weather models?

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Krebs ◽  
Alice J. Kenney ◽  
Grant R. Singleton ◽  
Greg Mutze ◽  
Roger P. Pech ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Mouse Population ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
South Eastern Australia

Outbreaks of house mice (Mus domesticus) occur irregularly in the wheat-growing areas of south-eastern Australia, and are thought to be driven by weather variability, particularly rainfall. If rainfall drives grass and seed production, and vegetation production drives mouse dynamics, we should achieve better predictability of mouse outbreaks by the use of plant-production data. On a broader scale, if climatic variability is affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, large-scale weather variables might be associated with mouse outbreaks. We could not find any association of mouse outbreaks over the last century with any ENSO measurements or other large-scale weather variables, indicating that the causal change linking mouse numbers with weather variation is more complex than is commonly assumed. For the 1960–2002 period we were only partly successful in using variation in cereal production to predict outbreaks of mice in nine areas of Victoria and South Australia, and we got better predictability of outbreaks from rainfall data alone. We achieved 70% correct predictions for a qualitative model using rainfall and 58% for a quantitative model using rainfall and spring mouse numbers. Without the detailed specific mechanisms underlying mouse population dynamics, we may not be able to improve on these simple models that link rainfall to mouse outbreaks.

scholarly journals Coordinated shifts in allocation among reproductive tissues across 14 coexisting plant species

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Wenk ◽  
K. Abramowicz ◽  
M. Westoby ◽  
D. S. Falster
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Seed Size ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Reproductive Tissues ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Eastern Australia

AbstractPlant species differ in the amounts of energy allocated to different reproductive tissues, driving differences in their ecology and energy flows within ecosystems. While it is widely agreed that energy allocation is key to reproductive outcomes, few studies have estimated how reproductive effort (RE) is partitioned among different pools, for multiple species in a community. In plants, RE can be partitioned in several meaningful ways: seed versus non-seed tissues; into flowers that form seeds and those that fail to develop; into pre-versus post-pollination tissues, and into successful versus aborted ovules. Evolutionary theory suggests several hypotheses about how these tissues should be coordinated across species. To quantify variation in allocation to different reproductive tissues, we collected detailed RE measurements for a year from 14 perennial species in a recurrent-fire coastal heath community in eastern Australia. Overall we found that total accessory costs – the proportion of RE not directly invested in provisioning the seed – were very large, varying from 95.8% to 99.8% across the study species. These results suggest that studies using seed or fruit production as measures of RE may underestimate it by 10-to 500-fold. We propose a suitable alternative that well-approximates true RE. When comparing species, we found strong support for three evolutionary trade-offs that are predicted to arise when a given energy pool is divided into different tissue masses and counts across species: 1) between successful pollen-attraction costs and mature ovule count, 2) between total reproductive costs and seed count, and 3) between seedset and relative investment in pollen-attraction costs. As a result of these trade-offs, species were also predicted to show coordinated shifts in the amounts invested in floral construction, in seedset and seed size. These shifts in investment were indeed observed, with the amount allocated to discarded tissues increasing with seed size and the amount allocated to pollen-attraction decreasing with seed size. It is already well-established that the seed size axis aligns with the colonization-competition life history spectrum; here we show that relative construction costs of pollen-attraction versus provisioning tissues and seedset are also part of this trajectory, expanding our understanding of the relatives sizes of floral and fruiting structures observed across angiosperms.

Murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) infections in house mice: a matter of age or sex?

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Jacob ◽  
Duncan R. Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Control ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Murine Cytomegalovirus ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Agricultural Pest ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Old Mice

The murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) may be used as a vector for fertility control in house mice, which are a significant agricultural pest in south-eastern Australia. The transmission of MCMV can be density dependent and is mostly subclinical in its effect on mice; however, little is known about which individual parameters influence whether an animal is likely to be infected or not.We examined the impact of age and reproductive history on seroprevalence of MCMV in house mice during the breeding season. MCMV seroprevalence was density dependent and there was a linear increase in seroprevalence with increasing age, starting at 25% for 1-month-old mice and 100% for all individuals older than five months. There was no clear indication that the number of previous pregnancies was related to MCMV seroprevalence.The high prevalence of MCMV among adult female house mice (84%) implies that an Australian field strain of MCMV could be a promising vector for an immunocontraceptive for house mice.

The impact of murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) on enclosure populations of house mice (Mus domesticus)

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. N. Farroway ◽  
G. R. Singleton ◽  
M. A. Lawson ◽  
D. A. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Control ◽  
Murine Cytomegalovirus ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Host Immune System ◽  
High Survival ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Young Mice

Feral house mice are a significant agricultural pest in south-eastern Australia. Fertility control is favoured as a long-term control strategy, using murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) as a viral delivery system for an immunocontraceptive. We examined the impact of one and two non-sterilising field strains of MCMV on populations of house mice housed under semi-natural conditions. MCMV had no effect on the proportion of females pregnant or lactating or on the number of placental scars per female. However, females in enclosures with two strains of MCMV produced fewer litters. No impact of MCMV was detected on adult survival, with high survival (>95%) detected in all enclosures. Similar numbers of the first cohort of young entered the trappable population of all enclosures. There was no significant impact of MCMV on survival of young mice, although there was a trend for reduced numbers of the second cohort of young and less successful recruitment in enclosures with two strains of MCMV. The two cohorts of young mice in enclosures with MCMV had poorer body condition. These impacts of infection on young mice imply that MCMV may have negative effects on survival only when the host immune system is not fully developed or the host is immunocompromised. Overall, there was no effect of MCMV on the rate of increase of the mouse populations. Therefore, the effects of MCMV were minor at a demographic level, confirming the suitability of an Australian field strain of MCMV as a vector for an immunocontraceptive of mice.

scholarly journals Host subspecific viral strains in European house mice: Murine cytomegalovirus in the Eastern (Mus musculus musculus) and Western house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus)

Virology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 521 ◽  
pp. 92-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagmar Čížková ◽  
Stuart J.E. Baird ◽  
Jana Těšíková ◽  
Sebastian Voigt ◽  
Ďureje Ľudovít ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Mouse ◽  
Mus Musculus ◽  
Murine Cytomegalovirus ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Mus Musculus Domesticus ◽  
Mus Musculus Musculus

Robust modelling to address UPH19 to predict future hydrological responses for water resources adaptation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Chiew ◽  
Hongxing Zheng ◽  
Jai Vaze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Projected Range ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Robust Modelling

<p>This paper addresses the implications of UPH19 in extrapolating hydrological models to predict the future and assessing water resources adaptation to climate change. Many studies have now shown that traditional application of hydrological models calibrated against past observations will underestimate the range in the projected future hydrological impact, that is, it will underestimate the decline in runoff where a runoff decrease is projected, and underestimate the increase in runoff where a runoff increase is projected. This study opportunistically uses data from south-eastern Australia which recently experienced a long and severe drought lasting more than ten years and subsequent partial hydrological recovery from the drought. The paper shows that a more robust calibration of rainfall-runoff models to produce good calibration metrics in both the dry periods and wet periods, at the expense of the best calibration over the entire data period, can produce a more accurate estimate of the uncertainty in the projected future runoff, but cannot entirely eliminate the modelling limitation of underestimating the projected range in future runoff. This is because of the need to consider trade-offs between the calibration objectives, particularly in simulating the dry periods, versus enhanced bias that results from the consideration. Hydrological models must therefore also need to be adapted to reflect the non-stationary nature of catchment and vegetation responses in a changing climate under warmer conditions, higher CO<sub>2</sub> and changed precipitation patterns. This is an active area of research in UPH19, and some ideas relevant to this region will be presented.</p>

Morphological, phytochemical and molecular analyses define species limits in Eucalyptus magnificata (Myrtaceae) and lead to the discovery of a new rare species

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy L. Collins ◽  
Rose L. Andrew ◽  
Jeremy J. Bruhl
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Full Description ◽  
Species Limits ◽  
Single Nucleotide ◽  
Test Species ◽  
Field Collection ◽  
Snp Data ◽  
Eastern Australia

Abstract. Eucalyptus magnificata L.A.S.Johnson & K.D.Hill is an endangered species endemic to the New England Tablelands Bioregion of eastern Australia, with taxonomic conflict regarding its recognition. Analyses of morphology, phytochemistry and genomic DNA were used to test species limits of E. magnificata. Morphometric and phytochemical phenetic analyses found distinct differences among E. magnificata, E. baueriana and a putative entity recognised during field collection, i.e. E. sp. Dalveen. Another putative entity, E. sp. Oxley, was morphologically and phytochemically intermediate between E. magnificata and E. conica. Phenetic analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data supported the results from morphological and phytochemical analyses. The original circumscription of E. magnificata, as distinct from E. baueriana, was strongly corroborated. Eucalyptus magnificata was found to be restricted in distribution to the Macleay Gorges area south-east of Armidale. Multiple lines of evidence provided strong support for the recognition of E. sp. Dalveen as a separately evolving entity at a species level, here described as Eucalyptus dalveenica T.L.Collins, R.L.Andrew & J.J.Bruhl. A full description of the new species, a table distinguishing E. dalveenica from closely related taxa, and an identification key are provided. Distribution, habitat and conservation status are discussed.

scholarly journals Understanding the Evolutionary Ecology of host–pathogen Interactions Provides Insights into the Outcomes of Insect Pest Biocontrol

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
David J. Páez ◽  
Arietta E. Fleming-Davies
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Single Strain ◽  
Classical Biocontrol ◽  
Life History Tradeoffs ◽  
Pathogen Strains

The use of viral pathogens to control the population size of pest insects has produced both successful and unsuccessful outcomes. Here, we investigate whether those biocontrol successes and failures can be explained by key ecological and evolutionary processes between hosts and pathogens. Specifically, we examine how heterogeneity in pathogen transmission, ecological and evolutionary tradeoffs, and pathogen diversity affect insect population density and thus successful control. We first review the existing literature and then use numerical simulations of mathematical models to further explore these processes. Our results show that the control of insect densities using viruses depends strongly on the heterogeneity of virus transmission among insects. Overall, increased heterogeneity of transmission reduces the effect of viruses on insect densities and increases the long-term stability of insect populations. Lower equilibrium insect densities occur when transmission is heritable and when there is a tradeoff between mean transmission and insect fecundity compared to when the heterogeneity of transmission arises from non-genetic sources. Thus, the heterogeneity of transmission is a key parameter that regulates the long-term population dynamics of insects and their pathogens. We also show that both heterogeneity of transmission and life-history tradeoffs modulate characteristics of population dynamics such as the frequency and intensity of “boom–bust" population cycles. Furthermore, we show that because of life-history tradeoffs affecting the transmission rate, the use of multiple pathogen strains is more effective than the use of a single strain to control insect densities only when the pathogen strains differ considerably in their transmission characteristics. By quantifying the effects of ecology and evolution on population densities, we are able to offer recommendations to assess the long-term effects of classical biocontrol.

scholarly journals A longitudinal study of phenotypic changes in early domestication of house mice

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 172099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine Geiger ◽  
Marcelo R. Sánchez-Villagra ◽  
Anna K. Lindholm
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
House Mice ◽  
Free Living ◽  
Mouse Population ◽  
Domestication Syndrome ◽  
Phenotypic Changes ◽  
Wild House Mice ◽  
Term Data

Similar phenotypic changes occur across many species as a result of domestication, e.g. in pigmentation and snout size. Experimental studies of domestication have concentrated on intense and directed selection regimes, while conditions that approximate the commensal and indirect interactions with humans have not been explored. We examine long-term data on a free-living population of wild house mice that have been indirectly selected for tameness by regular exposure to humans. In the course of a decade, this mouse population exhibited significantly increased occurrence of white patches of fur and decreased head length. These phenotypic changes fit to the predictions of the ‘domestication syndrome'.

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