A Logit Model for Predicting the Daily Occurrence of Human Caused Forest-Fires

1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
CV Garcia ◽  
PM Woodard ◽  
SJ Titus ◽  
WL Adamowicz ◽  
BS Lee
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Management Implications ◽  
Occurrence Data

The logit model was used to predict the number of fire-days in the Whitecourt Forest of Alberta. The database used included fire (1) and no-fire (0) observations for fire season days between April and October for the 1986 through 1990 period. There were 8,009 observations during this period of which 157 were fire observations. Using four variables, we were able to predict 79.0% of the fire-days and 81.5% of the no-fire-days. The model, Zi=-8.5171+7.6590xAREAi+0.7367xDISTRICTi+2.0478xBUIi+3.9563xISIi, failed to predict 37 of the fire-days and produced 29 ''false alarms''. When this model was tested on fire occurrence data from the Whitecourt Forest for 1991 and 1992 fire seasons it was correct 74.1% of the time. The management implications and limitations of this study are also discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Forest Fire Probability Mapping in Eastern Serbia: Logistic Regression versus Random Forest Method

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Slobodan Milanović ◽  
Nenad Marković ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Ljubomir Gigović ◽  
Pavle Kostić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Probability Mapping

Forest fire risk has increased globally during the previous decades. The Mediterranean region is traditionally the most at risk in Europe, but continental countries like Serbia have experienced significant economic and ecological losses due to forest fires. To prevent damage to forests and infrastructure, alongside other societal losses, it is necessary to create an effective protection system against fire, which minimizes the harmful effects. Forest fire probability mapping, as one of the basic tools in risk management, allows the allocation of resources for fire suppression, within a fire season, from zones with a lower risk to those under higher threat. Logistic regression (LR) has been used as a standard procedure in forest fire probability mapping, but in the last decade, machine learning methods such as fandom forest (RF) have become more frequent. The main goals in this study were to (i) determine the main explanatory variables for forest fire occurrence for both models, LR and RF, and (ii) map the probability of forest fire occurrence in Eastern Serbia based on LR and RF. The most important variable was drought code, followed by different anthropogenic features depending on the type of the model. The RF models demonstrated better overall predictive ability than LR models. The map produced may increase firefighting efficiency due to the early detection of forest fire and enable resources to be allocated in the eastern part of Serbia, which covers more than one-third of the country’s area.

scholarly journals COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE O PERFIL DOS INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS DE MONTE ALEGRE, BRASIL, E DE PINAR DEL RÍO, CUBA

FLORESTA ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Pedro Ramos Rodríguez ◽  
Ronaldo Viana Soares ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Alexandre França Tetto ◽  
Luis Wilfredo Martínez Becerra
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Control ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distributions ◽  
Del Rio ◽  
Pinus Spp ◽  
Control Service

 É importante se determinar onde, quando e porque ocorrem os incêndios florestais, com vistas a estruturar os serviços de prevenção e combate dentro de limites economicamente viáveis. Esta pesquisa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de comparar o comportamento histórico dos incêndios florestais ocorridos no período de 2002 a 2011 no Distrito Florestal de Monte Alegre, estado do Paraná, Brasil, e nas empresas florestais da Província de Pinar del Río, Cuba. Foram consideradas as distribuições temporal e espacial dos incêndios, tendo sido analisada também a eficiência do serviço de proteção. Os registros de ocorrência de incêndios foram fornecidos pela Klabin S/A e pelo Corpo de Guardabosques de Pinar del Río. Os resultados mostraram um maior número de ocorrências e uma menor área queimada em Monte Alegre. Os incêndios se concentraram nos meses de agosto a outubro (77,97% do total) em Monte Alegre e de março a maio (86,80%) em Pinar del Río. A cobertura vegetal mais afetada nas duas regiões foi “Pinus spp.” e a principal causa foi “incendiário” (71,66% do total) em Monte Alegre e “raios” (39,26%) em Pinar del Río. Conclui-se que há uma similaridade no perfil dos incêndios para os dois lugares, com exceção da época de incêndios.Palavras-chave: Estatísticas de incêndios; época de incêndios; prevenção de incêndios. AbstractComparison between the forest fires statistics in Monte Alegre, Brazil, and Pinar del Río, Cuba. It is important to determine where, when and why forest fires occur in order to structure the prevention and suppression within economically viable limits. This research was developed in order to compare the historical behavior of forest fires in the period 2002 to 2011 in the Forest District of Monte Alegre, Paraná State, Brazil, and forestry companies in the province of Pinar del Río, Cuba. Spatial and temporal distributions of fire occurrence were considered and the efficiency of fire control service was analyzed. Records of fire occurrence were provided by Klabin S/A and the Forest Department of Pinar del Río. The results revealed a higher number of occurrences and a lower burned area in Monte Alegre. The fires were concentrated from the month of August to October (77.97% of total) in Monte Alegre and March-May (86.80%) in Pinar del Río. The most affected vegetation in both regions was "Pinus spp" and the main cause of the occurrence was "incendiary" (71.66% of total) in Monte Alegre and "lightning" (39.26%) in Pinar del Río. There was a similarity in the fire profile for the two regions, except in the fire season.Keywords: Fire statistics; fire history; fire season; fire prevention.

scholarly journals OCORRÊNCIA DE INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS NO ESTADO DO PARANÁ, NO PERÍODO DE 2005 A 2010

FLORESTA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre França Tetto ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Ronaldo Viana Soares
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Department ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
The Third ◽  
Northwest Region

 O Paraná possui a terceira maior área de cultivos florestais do país. Uma das preocupações com a cobertura vegetal existente está relacionada com os danos causados pela ocorrência de incêndios florestais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o número e época de ocorrência de incêndios, a área atingida e as principais regiões do estado impactadas por esses eventos. Para isso foram analisados os dados do Corpo de Bombeiros do Estado, no período de 2005 a 2010. Os resultados permitiram concluir que nesse período ocorreram 54.793 incêndios, que atingiram 172.130 ha. O período normal de ocorrência de incêndios se concentrou nos meses de junho a setembro, com 52,5% dos registros. O maior impacto, com relação à vegetação atingida, se deu nos meses de julho a setembro, com 76,0% da área. A região mais atingida foi a noroeste, com 30,4% das ocorrências, seguida pela nordeste, com 17,3%. Em termos de área atingida, o destaque se dá para o noroeste, com 65,6% da área atingida, seguida pela sudoeste, com 19,0%. Conclui-se que a região norte foi a mais sujeita à ocorrência de incêndios florestais, em função dos fatores ambientais associados aos incêndios, sobretudo o clima, a tipologia florestal e o uso do fogo em práticas agropecuárias.Palavras-chave: Área queimada; estação normal de perigo de incêndios; prevenção. AbstractForest fire occurrence in Parana State, in the period 2005 to 2010. Parana holds the third largest area of forest plantations in the country. One of the concerns about the existing vegetation is related to the damages caused by forest fires. This research aimed to determine the fire season, the number of fire occurrences, the burned area, and the main state regions affected by these events. The analyzed data were collected from the State Fire Department, from 2005 to 2010. The results showed that in the analyzed period 54,793 fires, affecting 172,130 ha, were recorded.The main fire season was concentrated in the months of June to September, with 52.5% of the recorded occurrences. The biggest impact to the vegetation occurred in the months of July to September, with 76.0% of the affected area.The northwest region was the most affected, with 30.4% of the occurrences, followed by the northeast, with 17.3%. Regarding the affected area, the northwest region, with 65.6% of the total, run in first place, followed by the southwest, with 19.0%. The results allowed to conclude that the northern region was more susceptible to the occurrence of forest fires, due to environmental factors associated to the fires, like climate characteristics, vegetation cover, and the use of fire in agricultural practices.Keywords: Affected area; fire season; prevention. 

A Stochastic Model for the Occurrence of Man-caused Forest Fires

1973 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Cunningham ◽  
D. L. Martell
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Northwestern Ontario

This paper discusses the occurrence of man-caused forest fires during the summer fire season in a section of northwestern Ontario. Fire occurrence is viewed as being a chance process and a stochastic model is developed to describe it. The results of this study indicate that a Poisson model with the average number of fires per day depending on the Fine Fuel Moisture Code is appropriate.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Forest Fires in Southeastern Australia Using SAR Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2386
Author(s):  
Aqil Tariq ◽  
Hong Shu ◽  
Qingting Li ◽  
Orhan Altan ◽  
Mobushir Riaz Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Backscatter Coefficient ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Sar Imagery

Prescribed burning is a common strategy for minimizing forest fire risk. Fire is introduced under specific environmental conditions, with explicit duration, intensity, and rate of spread. Such conditions deviate from those encountered during the fire season. Prescribed burns mostly affect surface fuels and understory vegetation, an outcome markedly different when compared to wildfires. Data on prescribed burning are crucial for evaluating whether land management targets have been reached. This research developed a methodology to quantify the effects of prescribed burns using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery in the forests of southeastern Australia. C-band SAR datasets were specifically used to statistically explore changes in radar backscatter coefficients with the intensity of prescribed burns. Two modeling approaches based on pre- and post-fire ratios were applied for evaluating prescribed burn impacts. The effects of prescribed burns were documented with an overall accuracy of 82.3% using cross-polarized backscatter (VH) SAR data under dry conditions. The VV polarization indicated some potential to detect burned areas under wet conditions. The findings in this study indicate that the C-band SAR backscatter coefficient has the potential to evaluate the effectiveness of prescribed burns due to its sensitivity to changes in vegetation structure.

scholarly journals Tendencies of Fire Development in the Forests of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Yevhen Melnyk ◽  
Vladimir Voron
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zones ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zone

Preservation and increase of forest area are necessary conditions for the biosphere functioning. Forest ecosystems in most parts of the world are affected by fires. According to the latest data, the forest fire situation has become complicated in Ukraine, and this issue requires ongoing investigation. The aim of the study was to analyse the dynamics of wildfires in Ukrainian forests over recent decades and to assess the complex indicator of wildfire occurrence in various forest management zones and administrative regions. The average annual complex indicator of fire occurrence, in terms of wildfire number and burned area, was studied in detail in the forests of various administrative regions and forest management zones in Ukraine from 1998 to 2017. The results show that fire occurrence in both the number and area of fires can vary significantly in various forest management zones. There is a very noticeable difference in these indicators in some administrative regions within a particular forest management zone. The data show that the number of forest fires depends not only on the natural and climatic conditions of such regions, but also on anthropogenic factors.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1477-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
O. Hyvärinen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract. Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.

What drives forest fire in Fujian, China? Evidence from logistic regression and Random Forests

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Futao Guo ◽  
Guangyu Wang ◽  
Zhangwen Su ◽  
Huiling Liang ◽  
Wenhui Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Local Factors ◽  
Risk Zones

We applied logistic regression and Random Forest to evaluate drivers of fire occurrence on a provincial scale. Potential driving factors were divided into two groups according to scale of influence: ‘climate factors’, which operate on a regional scale, and ‘local factors’, which includes infrastructure, vegetation, topographic and socioeconomic data. The groups of factors were analysed separately and then significant factors from both groups were analysed together. Both models identified significant driving factors, which were ranked in terms of relative importance. Results show that climate factors are the main drivers of fire occurrence in the forests of Fujian, China. Particularly, sunshine hours, relative humidity (fire seasonal and daily), precipitation (fire season) and temperature (fire seasonal and daily) were seen to play a crucial role in fire ignition. Of the local factors, elevation, distance to railway and per capita GDP were found to be most significant. Random Forest demonstrated a higher predictive ability than logistic regression across all groups of factors (climate, local, and climate and local combined). Maps of the likelihood of fire occurrence in Fujian illustrate that the high fire-risk zones are distributed across administrative divisions; consequently, fire management strategies should be devised based on fire-risk zones, rather than on separate administrative divisions.

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

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