Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra-Nevada of California

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
JC Regelbrugge ◽  
SG Conard
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Stem Bark ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Bark Char

We modeled tree mortality occurring two years following wildfire in Pinus ponderosa forests using data from 1275 trees in 25 stands burned during the 1987 Stanislaus Complex fires. We used logistic regression analysis to develop models relating the probability of wildfire-induced mortality with tree size and fire severity for Pinus ponderosa, Calocedrus decurrens, Quercus chrysolepis, and Q. kelloggii. One set of models predicts mortality probability as a function of DBH and height of stem-bark char, a second set of models uses relative char height (height of stem-bark char as a proportion of tree height) as the predictor. Probability of mortality increased with increasing height of stem-bark char and decreased with increasing tree DBH and height. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicated that both sets of models perform well for all species, with 83 to 96 percent concordance between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. The models can be used to predict die probability of post-wildfire mortality of four tree species common in Pinus ponderosa forests in the central Sierra Nevada of California.

Postfire Tree Mortality in Relation to Wildfire Severity in Mixed Oak Forests in the Blue Ridge of Virginia

1994 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 90-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Regelbrugge ◽  
David Wm. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Stem Bark ◽  
Red Oak ◽  
Regression Diagnostics ◽  
Northern Red Oak ◽  
Blue Ridge ◽  
Stand Basal Area ◽  
Bark Char

Abstract Tree mortality in relation to fire severity was investigated in eight mixed oak stands in the second growing season following the 1900 ha Big Run Fire in May 1986, in Shenandoah National Park in the Blue Ridge of Virginia. Plots were located in four stands each burned by high- and low-severity fire. Prefire stands were evenaged (55-60 yr), of medium quality (upland oak 50 yr site index 18-20 m ), and dominated by chestnut oak, scarlet oak, northern red oak and pignut hickory. High-severity fire top-killed 67% of stand basal area and 81% of the trees, whereas low-severity fire top-killed 8% of stand basal area and 15% of the trees. Height of stem-bark char accounted for 93 % and 96% of the variation in fire-killed basal area and number of trees, respectively. Logistic regression models relating probability of top-kill of individual trees with tree dbh and height of stem-bark char were developed for chestnut oak, scarlet oak, northern red oak, black oak, pignut hickory, red maple, blackgum, and serviceberry. Regression diagnostics indicated that the models predicted well for all species, with 79 to 95% concordance between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. The models demonstrate the interaction of species-specific fire resistance, tree size, and fire severity in determining fire induced top-kill. These models can be used to estimate postfire mortality for a variety of purposes, including planning postwildfire timber salvage and regeneration operations, planning prescribed fires, and ecosystem process modeling. North. J. Appl. For. 11(3):90-97.

Post-fire survival and flushing in three Sierra Nevada conifers with high initial crown scorch

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad T. Hanson ◽  
Malcolm P. North
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Conifer Species ◽  
Mature Trees ◽  
Salvage Logging ◽  
Abies Magnifica ◽  
Crown Scorch ◽  
Tree Survival ◽  
Large Trees

With growing debate over the impacts of post-fire salvage logging in conifer forests of the western USA, managers need accurate assessments of tree survival when significant proportions of the crown have been scorched. The accuracy of fire severity measurements will be affected if trees that initially appear to be fire-killed prove to be viable after longer observation. Our goal was to quantify the extent to which three common Sierra Nevada conifer species may ‘flush’ (produce new foliage in the year following a fire from scorched portions of the crown) and survive after fire, and to identify tree or burn characteristics associated with survival. We found that, among ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) and Jeffrey pines (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf) with 100% initial crown scorch (no green foliage following the fire), the majority of mature trees flushed, and survived. Red fir (Abies magnifica A. Murr.) with high crown scorch (mean = 90%) also flushed, and most large trees survived. Our results indicate that, if flushing is not taken into account, fire severity assessments will tend to overestimate mortality and post-fire salvage could remove many large trees that appear dead but are not.

scholarly journals Is “Fuel Reduction” Justified as Fire Management in Spotted Owl Habitat?

Birds ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 395-403
Author(s):  
Chad T. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Fuel Reduction ◽  
Spotted Owl ◽  
California Spotted Owl

The California spotted owl is an imperiled species that selects mature conifer forests for nesting and roosting while actively foraging in the “snag forest habitat” created when fire or drought kills most of the trees in patches. Federal agencies believe there are excess surface fuels in both of these habitat conditions in many of California’s forests due to fuel accumulation from decades of fire suppression and recent drought-related tree mortality. Accordingly, agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service are implementing widespread logging in spotted owl territories. While they acknowledge habitat degradation from such logging, and risks to the conservation of declining spotted owl populations, agencies hypothesize that such active forest management equates to effective fuel reduction that is needed to curb fire severity for the overall benefit of this at-risk species. In an initial investigation, I analyzed this issue in a large 2020 fire, the Creek Fire (153,738 ha), in the southern Sierra Nevada mountains of California. I found that pre-fire snag density was not correlated with burn severity. I also found that more intensive forest management was correlated to higher fire severity. My results suggest the fuel reduction approach is not justified and provide indirect evidence that such management represents a threat to spotted owls.

scholarly journals Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J Koontz ◽  
Malcolm P. North ◽  
Chhaya M. Werner ◽  
Stephen E. Fick ◽  
Andrew M. Latimer
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Forest Structure ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Dry Forest ◽  
Structural Variability ◽  
Overstory Trees

A “resilient” forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behavior and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine-scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstory trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long-lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1,000 wildfires in California’s Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire-induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 x 90m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenization from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.

Applying LiDAR technology for tree measurements in burned landscapes

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Wing ◽  
Aaron Eklund ◽  
John Sessions
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Deciduous Trees ◽  
Recovery Planning ◽  
Lidar Measurements ◽  
Measurement Biases

Wildfires burn several million hectares in the United States annually. Time is critical in gathering information from burned landscapes for post-fire recovery planning. A technology to obtain spatial vegetation information across landscapes is Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR). We compared tree positional and height measurements, primarily from Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), between field-based and LiDAR-derived measurements at three south-western Oregon (USA) sites. The sites represented a range of tree mortality from minimal to extensive. Our primary objective was to determine whether significant differences existed between field and LiDAR tree measurements in burned landscapes. Secondary objectives were to examine whether LiDAR pulse intensities in burned landscapes could differentiate coniferous from deciduous trees, discern fire-killed from live trees, and whether other tree measurement parameters were related to pulse intensities. No significant differences were detected between field-based and LiDAR-derived horizontal positions. Tree height differences between field-based and LiDAR measurements were significant at one site likely owing to dense canopy and measurement biases. Mean and maximum LiDAR intensities were significantly different between live and dead (fire-killed) trees in two of three sites. Additionally, crown diameter and tree sweep were significant in explaining variation in maximum LiDAR intensities at all sites.

Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 920-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian J. Das ◽  
Nathan L. Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Tree Survival

Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

scholarly journals Assessing Tree Mortality Probability in Harvested Hardwood Stands Using Long-Term Forest Inventory Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-240
Author(s):  
Thomas J Brandeis ◽  
Consuelo Brandeis
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Private Lands ◽  
Stand Volume ◽  
Partial Harvesting ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
Commercial Species ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Stand Conditions

Abstract Partial harvesting (here defined as removal of ≤50% of preharvest volume) is the predominant silvicultural scheme applied to hardwood forest types in the eastern United States. Future stand conditions are largely reliant on trees retained after harvest, so their mortality because of harvesting activity damage should be minimized or taken into account when planning. We quantify partially harvested stand characteristics and postharvest mortality using data from 32,057 forested conditions, 366,953 trees with a diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥ 2.5 cm, of which 4,469 trees were cut and used in partially harvested stands. On average 23.3% of stand volume was selectively harvested with an additional 2.5% of volume lost to harvesting-caused mortality. Of the trees killed by logging activity in harvested stands, 90.7% were under 28 cm dbh. The likelihood of mortality was 1.31 times higher (95% CI of 1.20 to 1.44) for trees retained in stands that had undergone partial harvesting than for trees growing in unharvested stands. Commercial species had lower odds of mortality (0.88 times) in harvested stands than noncommercial species. Residual trees in harvested stands on private lands had a higher probability of mortality (1.23 times) than those on harvested public lands.

Comparison of burn severity assessments using Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio and ground data

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison E. Cocke ◽  
Peter Z. Fulé ◽  
Joseph E. Crouse
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Forest Structure ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Burn Severity ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio ◽  
Severity Levels ◽  
Normalized Burn Ratio

Burn severity can be mapped using satellite data to detect changes in forest structure and moisture content caused by fires. The 2001 Leroux fire on the Coconino National Forest, Arizona, burned over 18 pre-existing permanent 0.1 ha plots. Plots were re-measured following the fire. Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and the Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (ΔNBR) were used to map the fire into four severity levels immediately following the fire (July 2001) and 1 year after the fire (June 2002). Ninety-two Composite Burn Index (CBI) plots were compared to the fire severity maps. Pre- and post-fire plot measurements were also analysed according to their imagery classification. Ground measurements demonstrated differences in forest structure. Areas that were classified as severely burned on the imagery were predominantly Pinus ponderosa stands. Tree density and basal area, snag density and fine fuel accumulation were associated with severity levels. Tree mortality was not greatest in severely burned areas, indicating that the ΔNBR is comprehensive in rating burn severity by incorporating multiple forest strata. While the ΔNBR was less accurate at mapping perimeters, the method was reliable for mapping severely burned areas that may need immediate or long-term post-fire recovery.

Estimation of crown form for six conifer species of northern California

1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 1137-1142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greg S. Biging ◽  
Lee C. Wensel
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Wildlife Habitat ◽  
Conifer Species ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Crown Volume ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Individual Trees

Geometric models are presented for the prediction of crown volume and width at any height in the crown of six conifer species in the Sierra Nevada. Crown volume is defined as the geometric space occupied by the crown and is allometrically related to the diameter, height, and crown ratio of individual trees. Crown diameter is derived from crown volume, tree height, and crown ratio. The crown volumes and associated measures can be used to compute indices of individual tree competition such as those used in the CACTOS (California Conifer Timber Output Simulator) system or to compute other measures such as wildlife habitat suitability or insect damage potential. Estimation equations are developed by regression using data collected on crowns of 593 felled trees. The equations use dbh, total height, and crown ratio to estimate total crown volume, crown volume above a specified height, and cumulative crown cross sectional area at a specified height.

Sampling Aerial Photographs for Estimation of Pest-Caused Tree Mortality

1986 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 84-89
Author(s):  
William E. Waters ◽  
Robert W. Graebner
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Aerial Photo ◽  
Pest Damage ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Variable Probability

Abstract Six methods of estimating pest-caused tree mortality were evaluated by computer-based sampling of the aerial photo and numerical database of a 9,320 ha area of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in the central Sierra Nevada, California. Two sampling universes were defined, one comprising 9 X 9 in photo units, the other 70 mm photo units. Of the sampling designs simulated, 2-stage designs involving subsampling of photo strips with either equal or variable probability provided estimates with the lowest standard deviations, and hence would require smaller sample sizes (and less photo-interpretation time) for a specified precision. The findings of this study have application to operational surveys of pest damage for which complete aerial photo coverage is available, or to the design of surveys for which only sample aerial photo coverage is feasible. West J. Appl. For. 1:84-89, July 1986.

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