Wildfire decision support tools: an exploratory study of use in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 581
Author(s):  
Claire Rapp ◽  
Emily Rabung ◽  
Robyn Wilson ◽  
Eric Toman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Behaviour Models

In the United States, many decision support tools exist to provide fire managers with weather and fire behaviour information to inform and facilitate risk-based decision-making. Relatively little is known about how managers use these tools in the field and when and how they may serve to influence decisions. To address this gap, we conducted exploratory interviews with 27 wildfire management and fire weather professionals across the United States. Results reveal that barriers to the use of decision support tools are structural and social. Specifically, fire weather and behaviour models may not generate reliable output and managers may not use the information they provide, but technical specialists on incident management teams (IMTs) play an active role in trying to overcome these barriers through their technical expertise and their relationships with other members of the IMT. Although researchers suggest tools such as the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) inform broad, strategic decision-making for line officers and IMTs, our results suggest fire weather and behaviour models are also important for communication and strategic or tactical planning within the IMT, especially for operations. We find that ultimately, managers may make use of fire weather and behaviour models, but they do not dictate decisions.

scholarly journals Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: a choice experiment

Fire Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire E. Rapp ◽  
Robyn S. Wilson ◽  
Eric L. Toman ◽  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
In Fire

Abstract Background Weather plays an integral role in fire management due to the direct and indirect effects it has on fire behavior. However, fire managers may not use all information available to them during the decision-making process, instead utilizing mental shortcuts that can bias decision-making. Thus, it is important to evaluate if (and how) fire managers use information like weather forecasts when making tactical decisions. We explore USDA Forest Service fire manager confidence in relative humidity, precipitation, and wind models. We then use a choice experiment where key weather attributes were varied to explore how sensitive fire managers were to changes in specific weather variables when choosing to directly or indirectly attack a fire that is transitioning to extended attack. Results Respondents were less confident in the accuracy of wind and precipitation forecasts than relative humidity or weather forecasts more generally. The influence of weather information on the decision depended on the framing used in the choice experiment; specifically, whether respondents were told the initial strategy had been to directly or indirectly attack the fire. Across conditions, fire managers generally preferred to indirectly attack the fire. Decisions about the tactics to apply going forward were more sensitive to time in season when the fire was occurring and wind and precipitation forecasts than to other attributes. Conclusions The results have implications for the design of decision support tools developed to support fire management. Results suggest how fire managers’ use of fire weather information to evaluate forecast conditions and adjust future management decisions may vary depending on the management decision already in place. If fire weather-based decision support tools are to support the use of the best available information to make fire management decisions, careful attention may be needed to debias any effect of prior decisions. For example, decision support tools may encourage users to “consider the opposite,” i.e., consider if they would react differently if different initial decision with similar conditions were in place. The results also highlight the potential importance of either improving wind and precipitation forecast models or improving confidence in existing models.

scholarly journals Decision support tools to improve cancer diagnostic decision making in primary care: a systematic review

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (689) ◽  
pp. e809-e818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Chima ◽  
Jeanette C Reece ◽  
Kristi Milley ◽  
Shakira Milton ◽  
Jennifer G McIntosh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Diagnostic Decision ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Diagnostic Decision Making

BackgroundThe diagnosis of cancer in primary care is complex and challenging. Electronic clinical decision support tools (eCDSTs) have been proposed as an approach to improve GP decision making, but no systematic review has examined their role in cancer diagnosis.AimTo investigate whether eCDSTs improve diagnostic decision making for cancer in primary care and to determine which elements influence successful implementation.Design and settingA systematic review of relevant studies conducted worldwide and published in English between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2018.MethodPreferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched, and a consultation of reference lists and citation tracking was carried out. Exclusion criteria included the absence of eCDSTs used in asymptomatic populations, and studies that did not involve support delivered to the GP. The most relevant Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklists were applied according to study design of the included paper.ResultsOf the nine studies included, three showed improvements in decision making for cancer diagnosis, three demonstrated positive effects on secondary clinical or health service outcomes such as prescribing, quality of referrals, or cost-effectiveness, and one study found a reduction in time to cancer diagnosis. Barriers to implementation included trust, the compatibility of eCDST recommendations with the GP’s role as a gatekeeper, and impact on workflow.ConclusioneCDSTs have the capacity to improve decision making for a cancer diagnosis, but the optimal mode of delivery remains unclear. Although such tools could assist GPs in the future, further well-designed trials of all eCDSTs are needed to determine their cost-effectiveness and the most appropriate implementation methods.

Opportunities and Strategies to Incorporate Ecosystem Services Knowledge and Decision Support Tools into Planning and Decision Making in Hawai‘i

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 884-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah L. Bremer ◽  
Jade M. S. Delevaux ◽  
James J. K. Leary ◽  
Linda J. Cox ◽  
Kirsten L. L. Oleson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Support Tools

The role of depression pharmacogenetic decision support tools in shared decision making

2017 ◽  
Vol 126 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarina Arandjelovic ◽  
Harris A. Eyre ◽  
Eric Lenze ◽  
Ajeet B. Singh ◽  
Michael Berk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Shared Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Shared Decision ◽  
Support Tools

A Knowledge-Based Imaging Informatics Approach for Managing Proton Beam Therapy of Cancer Patients

2007 ◽  
Vol 6 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 77-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent J. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Radiation Therapy ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Treatment Planning ◽  
Imaging Informatics ◽  
Patient Treatment ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Dicom Rt

The need for a unified patient-oriented information system to handle complex proton therapy (PT) imaging and informatics data during the course of patient treatment is becoming steadily apparent due to the ever increasing demands for better diagnostic treatment planning and more accurate information. Currently, this information is scattered throughout each of the different treatment and information systems in the oncology department. Furthermore, the lack of organization with standardized methods makes it difficult and time-consuming to navigate through the maze of data, resulting in challenges during patient treatment planning. We present a methodology to develop this electronic patient record (ePR) system based on DICOM standards and perform knowledge-based medical imaging informatics research on specific clinical scenarios where patients are treated with PT. Treatment planning is similar in workflow to traditional radiation therapy (RT) methods such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), which utilizes a priori knowledge to drive the treatment plan in an inverse manner. In March 2006, two new RT objects were drafted in a DICOM-RT Supplement 102 specifically for ion therapy, which includes PT. The standardization of DICOM-RT-ION objects and the development of a knowledge base as well as decision-support tools that can be add-on features to the ePR DICOM-RT system were researched. This methodology can be used to extend to PT and the development of future clinical decision-making scenarios during the course of the patient's treatment that utilize “inverse treatment planning.” We present the initial steps of this imaging and informatics methodology for PT and lay the foundation for development of future decision-support tools tailored to cancer patients treated with PT. By integrating decision-support knowledge and tools designed to assist in the decision-making process, a new and improved “ knowledge-enhanced treatment planning” approach can be realized.

scholarly journals Decision Support Tools for Selecting Organisational Improvement Initiatives: a Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.7) ◽  
pp. 153
Author(s):  
Musli Mohammad ◽  
Ligesh Manni Vattiyan ◽  
Mohd Shahir Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Improvement Team

Decision support tools are used in many organisations to support organisational decision making activities. However, very limited studies have been found focussing on the decision support tools for selecting organisational improvement initiatives. Improvement initiatives are approaches, management systems, tools and/or techniques that can be used for managing and improving organisations, such as Lean, ISO9001 and Improvement Team. Four existing decision support tools were reviewed and compared. All four decision support tools consist of decision matrix, rating and ranking to assist in selecting appropriate improvement initiative. Finally, several potential future studies have been proposed.  

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