scholarly journals Applications of simulation-based burn probability modelling: a review

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
Denyse A. Dawe ◽  
Carol Miller ◽  
Christopher A. Stockdale ◽  
O. Bradley Armitage
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Direct Examination ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Spatial Estimates ◽  
Hazard And Risk

Wildland fire scientists and land managers working in fire-prone areas require spatial estimates of wildfire potential. To fulfill this need, a simulation-modelling approach was developed whereby multiple individual wildfires are modelled in an iterative fashion across a landscape to obtain location-based measures of fire likelihood and fire behaviour (e.g. fire intensity, biomass consumption). This method, termed burn probability (BP) modelling, takes advantage of fire spread algorithms created for operational uses and the proliferation of available data representing wildfire patterns, fuels and weather. This review describes this approach and provides an overview of its applications in wildland fire research, risk analysis and land management. We broadly classify the application of BP models as (1) direct examination, (2) neighbourhood processes, (3) fire hazard and risk and (4) integration with secondary models. Direct examination analyses are those that require no further processing of model outputs; they range from a simple visual examination of outputs to an assessment of alternate states (i.e. scenarios). Neighbourhood process analyses examine patterns of fire ignitions and subsequent spread across land designations. Fire hazard combines fire probability and a quantitative assessment of fire behaviour, whereas risk is the product of fire likelihood and potential impacts of wildfire. The integration with secondary models represents situations where BP model outputs are integrated into, or used in conjunction with, other models or modelling platforms.

Mantras of wildland fire behaviour modelling: facts or fallacies?

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Martin E. Alexander ◽  
Andrew L. Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Science ◽  
Current State ◽  
Valid Data ◽  
Insight Into

Generalised statements about the state of fire science are often used to provide a simplified context for new work. This paper explores the validity of five frequently repeated statements regarding empirical and physical models for predicting wildland fire behaviour. For empirical models, these include statements that they: (1) work well over the range of their original data; and (2) are not appropriate for and should not be applied to conditions outside the range of the original data. For physical models, common statements include that they: (3) provide insight into the mechanisms that drive wildland fire spread and other aspects of fire behaviour; (4) give a better understanding of how fuel treatments modify fire behaviour; and (5) can be used to derive simplified models to predict fire behaviour operationally. The first statement was judged to be true only under certain conditions, whereas the second was shown not to be necessarily correct if valid data and appropriate modelling forms are used. Statements three through five, although theoretically valid, were considered not to be true given the current state of knowledge regarding fundamental wildland fire processes.

Empirical modelling of surface fire behaviour in maritime pine stands

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio S. Botelho ◽  
Francisco C. Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

An experimental burning program took place in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Portugal to increase the understanding of surface fire behaviour under mild weather. The spread rate and flame geometry of the forward and backward sections of a line-ignited fire front were measured in 94 plots 10–15 m wide. Measured head fire rate of spread, flame length and Byram’s fire intensity varied respectively in the intervals of 0.3–13.9 m min–1, 0.1–4.2 m and 30–3527 kW m–1. Fire behaviour was modelled through an empirical approach. Rate of forward fire spread was described as a function of surface wind speed, terrain slope, moisture content of fine dead surface fuel, and fuel height, while back fire spread rate was correlated with fuel moisture content and cover of understorey vegetation. Flame dimensions were related to Byram’s fire intensity but relationships with rate of spread and fine dead surface fuel load and moisture are preferred, particularly for the head fire. The equations are expected to be more reliable when wind speed and slope are less than 8 km h–1 and 15°, and when fuel moisture content is higher than 12%. The results offer a quantitative basis for prescribed fire management.

Physical modelling of forest fire spreading through heterogeneous fuel beds

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Simeoni ◽  
Pierre Salinesi ◽  
Frédéric Morandini
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiments ◽  
Heterogeneous Medium ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Physical Modelling ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Fire Spreading

Vegetation cover is a heterogeneous medium composed of different kinds of fuels and non-combustible parts. Some properties of real fires arise from this heterogeneity. Creating heterogeneous fuel areas may be useful both in land management and in firefighting by reducing fire intensity and fire rate of spread. The spreading of a fire through a heterogeneous medium was studied with a two-dimensional reaction–diffusion physical model of fire spread. Randomly distributed combustible and non-combustible square elements constituted the heterogeneous fuel. Two main characteristics of the fire were directly computed by the model: the size of the zone influenced by the heat transferred from the fire front and the ignition condition of vegetation. The model was able to provide rate of fire spread, temperature distribution and energy transfers. The influence on the fire properties of the ratio between the amount of combustible elements and the total amount of elements was studied. The results provided the same critical fire behaviour as described in both percolation theory and laboratory experiments but the results were quantitatively different because the neighbourhood computed by the model varied in time and space with the geometry of the fire front. The simulations also qualitatively reproduced fire behaviour for heterogeneous fuel layers as observed in field experiments. This study shows that physical models can be used to study fire spreading through heterogeneous fuels, and some potential applications are proposed about the use of heterogeneity as a complementary tool for fuel management and firefighting.

High-resolution infrared thermography for capturing wildland fire behaviour: RxCADRE 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph J. O'Brien ◽  
E. Louise Loudermilk ◽  
Benjamin Hornsby ◽  
Andrew T. Hudak ◽  
Benjamin C. Bright ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Oblique View ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Research Experiment

Wildland fire radiant energy emission is one of the only measurements of combustion that can be made at wide spatial extents and high temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, spatially and temporally explicit measurements are critical for making inferences about fire effects and useful for examining patterns of fire spread. In this study we describe our methods for capturing and analysing spatially and temporally explicit long-wave infrared (LWIR) imagery from the RxCADRE (Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiment) project and examine the usefulness of these data in investigating fire behaviour and effects. We compare LWIR imagery captured at fine and moderate spatial and temporal resolutions (from 1 cm2 to 1 m2; and from 0.12 to 1 Hz) using both nadir and oblique measurements. We analyse fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of fire radiant power and energy released in several experimental burns. There was concurrence between the measurements, although the oblique view estimates of fire radiative power were consistently higher than the nadir view estimates. The nadir measurements illustrate the significance of fuel characteristics, particularly type and connectivity, in driving spatial variability at fine scales. The nadir and oblique measurements illustrate the usefulness of the data for describing the location and movement of the fire front at discrete moments in time at these fine and moderate resolutions. Spatially and temporally resolved data from these techniques show promise to effectively link the combustion environment with post-fire processes, remote sensing at larger scales and wildland fire modelling efforts.

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 574 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Matt Jolly ◽  
Patrick H. Freeborn
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better inform fire management decisions if they were linked directly to observed fire behaviour. Here, we present a simple framework for relating fire danger indices to observed categorical wildland fire behaviour. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to model the probabilities of five distinct fire behaviour categories that are then combined with a safety-based weight function to calculate a Fire Behaviour Risk rating that can plotted over time and spatially mapped. We demonstrate its development and use across three adjacent US National Forests. Finally, we compare predicted fire behaviour risk ratings with observed variations in satellite-measured fire radiative power and we link these models with spatial fire danger maps to demonstrate the utility of this approach for landscape-scale fire behaviour risk assessment. This approach transforms fire weather conditions into simple and actionable fire behaviour risk metrics that wildland firefighters can use to support decisions that meet required objectives and keep people safe.

Flame behaviour, fire hazard and fire testing approach for lightweight composite claddings – a review

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Delwar Hossain ◽  
Md Kamrul Hassan ◽  
Anthony Chun Yin Yuen ◽  
Yaping He ◽  
Swapan Saha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Toxicity Testing ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Test Methods ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Smoke Toxicity ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Testing ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this study is to review and summarise the existing available literature on lightweight cladding systems to provide detailed information on fire behaviour (ignitibility, heat release rate and smoke toxicity) and various test method protocols. Additionally, the paper discusses the challenges and provides updated knowledge and recommendation on selective-fire mechanisms such as rapid-fire spread, air cavity and fire re-entry behaviours due to dripping and melting of lightweight composite claddings. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive literature review on fire behaviour, fire hazard and testing methods of lightweight composite claddings has been conducted in this research. In summarising all possible fire hazards, particular attention is given to the potential impact of toxicity of lightweight cladding fires. In addition, various criteria for fire performance evaluation of lightweight composite claddings are also highlighted. These evaluations are generally categorised as small-, intermediate- and large-scale test methods. Findings The major challenges of lightweight claddings are rapid fire spread, smoke production and toxicity and inconsistency in fire testing. Originality/value The review highlights the current challenges in cladding fire, smoke toxicity, testing system and regulation to provide some research recommendations to address the identified challenges.

scholarly journals The impact of aging on laboratory fire behaviour in masticated shrub fuelbeds of California and Oregon, USA

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse K. Kreye ◽  
J. Morgan Varner ◽  
Jeffrey M. Kane ◽  
Eric E. Knapp ◽  
Warren P. Reed
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Woody Debris ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Slow Combustion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Mastication of shrubs and small trees to reduce fire hazard has become a widespread management practice, yet many aspects of the fire behaviour of these unique woody fuelbeds remain poorly understood. To examine the effects of fuelbed aging on fire behaviour, we conducted laboratory burns with masticated Arctostaphylos spp. and Ceanothus spp. woody debris that ranged from 2 to 16 years since treatment. Masticated fuels that were 10 years or older burned with 18 to 29% shorter flame heights and 19% lower fireline intensities compared with the younger fuelbeds across three different fuel loads (25, 50 and 75 Mg ha–1). Older fuelbeds smouldered for almost 50% longer than the younger masticated fuelbeds. Fuel consumption was 96% in the two higher fuel load categories regardless of fuelbed age, whereas consumption was 77% in the lighter fuel load. Fire intensity in masticated fuels may decrease over time owing to particle degradation, but in dry environments where decomposition is slow, combustion of the remaining fuels may still pose risks for tree mortality and smoke production associated with protracted smouldering.

scholarly journals Fire behaviour in south-western Australian shrublands: evaluating the influence of fuel age and fire weather

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph B. Fontaine ◽  
Vanessa C. Westcott ◽  
Neal J. Enright ◽  
Janneke C. Lade ◽  
Ben P. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Rate Of Spread

Fuel age (time since last fire) is often used to approximate fire hazard and informs decisions on placement of shrubland management burns worldwide. However, uncertainty remains concerning the relative importance of fuel age and weather conditions as predictors of fire hazard and behaviour. Using data from 35 experimental burns across three types of shrublands in Western Australia, we evaluated importance of fuel age and fire weather on probability of fire propagation (hazard) and four metrics of fire behaviour (rate of spread, fireline intensity, residence time, surface temperature) under moderate to high fire danger weather conditions. We found significant support for a threshold effect of fuel age for fire propagation but limited evidence for an effect of fuel age or fire weather on rates of spread or fireline intensity, although surface heating and heating duration were significantly related to fuel age and shrubland type. Further analysis suggested that dead fuel mass and accumulation rate rather than live fuels were responsible for this relationship. Using BEHAVE, predicted spread rates and intensities were consistently lower than observed values, suggesting further refinement is needed in modelling shrubland fire behaviour. These data provide important insight into fire behaviour in globally significant, fire-adapted shrublands, informing fire management and relationships between fire frequency and fire intensity.

scholarly journals Resolving vorticity-driven lateral fire spread using the WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere–fire numerical model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2359-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. C. Simpson ◽  
J. J. Sharples ◽  
J. P. Evans
Keyword(s):  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Vertical Grid

Abstract. Vorticity-driven lateral fire spread (VLS) is a form of dynamic fire behaviour, during which a wildland fire spreads rapidly across a steep leeward slope in a direction approximately transverse to the background winds. VLS is often accompanied by a downwind extension of the active flaming region and intense pyro-convection. In this study, the WRF-Fire (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) coupled atmosphere–fire model is used to examine the sensitivity of resolving VLS to both the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling from within the model framework. The atmospheric horizontal and vertical grid spacing are varied between 25 and 90 m, and the fire-to-atmosphere coupling is either enabled or disabled. At high spatial resolutions, the inclusion of fire-to-atmosphere coupling increases the upslope and lateral rate of spread by factors of up to 2.7 and 9.5, respectively. This increase in the upslope and lateral rate of spread diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions, and VLS is not modelled for a horizontal and vertical grid spacing of 90 m. The lateral fire spread is driven by fire whirls formed due to an interaction between the background winds and the vertical circulation generated at the flank of the fire front as part of the pyro-convective updraft. The laterally advancing fire fronts become the dominant contributors to the extreme pyro-convection. The results presented in this study demonstrate that both high spatial resolution and two-way atmosphere–fire coupling are required to model VLS with WRF-Fire.

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