Using a statistical model of past wildfire spread to quantify and map the likelihood of fire reaching assets and prioritise fuel treatments

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen F. Price ◽  
Michael Bedward
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
R Package ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface ◽  
Ignition Probability ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Asset Location ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Fire Spreading

We present a method to quantify and map the probability of fires reaching the vicinity of assets in a wildfire-prone region, by extending a statistical fire spread model developed on historical fire patterns in the Sydney region, Australia. It calculates the mean probability of fire spreading along sample lines around assets, weights the probability according to ignition probability and also estimates the change in spread probability that fuel reduction in treatment blocks would achieve. We have developed an R package WildfireRisk to implement the analysis and demonstrate it with two case studies in forested eastern Australia. The probability of a fire reaching the vicinity of an asset was highest in the heavily forested parts of each case study, but when weighted for ignition probability, the high probability shifted to the wildland–urban interface. Further, when weighted by asset location, high-priority areas for treatment were in blocks next to the wildland–urban interface. This method is objective, fast and based on the behaviour of real historical fires. We recommend its use in wildfire risk planning, as an adjunct to heuristic methods and simulations. Additional functionality can be incorporated into our method, for instance via a function for building impact.

A new method for the analysis of fire spread modeling errors

2002 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis M. Fujioka
Keyword(s):  
Probability Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
New Method ◽  
Ratio Error ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
San Bernardino ◽  
Modeling Errors ◽  
Operational Tool

Fire spread models have a long history, and their use will continue to grow as they evolve from a research tool to an operational tool. This paper describes a new method to analyse two-dimensional fire spread modeling errors, particularly to quantify the uncertainties of fire spread predictions. Measures of error are defined from the respective spread distances of the actual and simulated fires at specified points around their perimeters. A ratio error provides a correction factor for the spread model bias. The characteristics of the error are defined by a probability model, which is used to construct error bounds on fire spread predictions. The method is applied to the Bee Fire, which burned 3848 ha on the San Bernardino National Forest, California, in summer 1996. The study focused on the early, presuppression stages of the fire. A mesoscale spectral model was used to simulate weather conditions on a grid interval of 2 km. The FARSITE system was used to simulate fire growth during the first 105 min of the fire. The case study showed how difficult fire spread modeling is under the conditions presented by the Bee Fire.

scholarly journals IMPROVING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF DISASTER MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF PROPOSING FIREML FOR FOREST FIRE MODEL

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 673-677
Author(s):  
W. Jiang ◽  
F. Wang ◽  
Q. Meng ◽  
Z. Li ◽  
B. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Markup Language ◽  
Fire Model ◽  
Geography Markup Language ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Forest Fire Model

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

scholarly journals A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

2015 ◽  
Vol XL-5/W7 ◽  
pp. 73-78
Author(s):  
C.H Chen ◽  
S.W Chien ◽  
M.C Ho
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Historical Buildings ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Historical Building ◽  
Safety Distance ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Taipei City ◽  
Fire Spreading ◽  
Fire Outbreak

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Ability of FARSITE to Simulate Wildfires Influenced by Extreme, Downslope Winds in Santa Barbara, California

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katelyn Zigner ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
Seth Peterson ◽  
Francis Fujioka ◽  
Gert-Jan Duine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Santa Barbara ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Fire Area ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
In Fire

Extreme, downslope mountain winds often generate dangerous wildfire conditions. We used the wildfire spread model Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) to simulate two wildfires influenced by strong wind events in Santa Barbara, CA. High spatial-resolution imagery for fuel maps and hourly wind downscaled to 100 m were used as model inputs, and sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the effects of ignition timing and location on fire spread. Additionally, burn area rasters from FARSITE simulations were compared to minimum travel time rasters from FlamMap simulations, a wildfire model similar to FARSITE that holds environmental variables constant. Utilization of two case studies during strong winds revealed that FARSITE was able to successfully reconstruct the spread rate and size of wildfires when spotting was minimal. However, in situations when spotting was an important factor in rapid downslope wildfire spread, both FARSITE and FlamMap were unable to simulate realistic fire perimeters. We show that this is due to inherent limitations in the models themselves, related to the slope-orientation relative to the simulated fire spread, and the dependence of ember launch and land locations. This finding has widespread implications, given the role of spotting in fire progression during extreme wind events.

scholarly journals HEAT RELEASE RATE AS A PARAMETER FOR FIRE SPREAD – A CASE STUDY

2020 ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Darko N. Zigar ◽  
Dusica J. Pesic ◽  
Milan Đ. Blagojevic
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Heat Release Rate ◽  
Release Rate ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Fire Spreading

Indoor fires very often may cause great material damage and endanger human lives. The heat produced by fire affects the heating and ignition of surrounding flammable materials, as well as the heating of the building structure, causing its damage. It is well known that fire spread mostly depends on flammability and quantity of surrounding material, but small differences in the amount of fuel can significantly affect the speed of fire spread, and consequently, rate of heat released by fire. In this paper, the influence of the heat release rate on fire spreading is shown. The Large Eddy Simulation method of Fire Dynamics Simulator software package has been used to investigate the prediction of fire dynamics in a compartment. Numerical results show that the fire dynamics in the compartment is largely dependent on the quantity of fire load mass and the heat release rate during the fire.

scholarly journals INTELLIGENT MANAGEMENT OCCURRENCE AND SPREAD OF FRONT FIRE IN GIS BY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA. CASE STUDY: GOLESTAN FOREST

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽  
pp. 475-481
Author(s):  
S. Hesam ◽  
K. Valizadeh Kamran
Keyword(s):  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Kappa Coefficient ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
Dynamic Events ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Wildfire Spread ◽  
Intelligent Management

Abstract. Jungles are a country’s treasures, and the survival of humans and the earth depends on the oxygen that they produce (trees). Three million hectares of jungle are destroyed each year as a result of natural or human-caused wildfires. The massive wildfires occurring in the world confirms that this destructive phenomenon leaves irreconcilable effects on regional ecosystems, vegetation and wildlife; presenting more effective approaches for preventing and managing this complex phenomenon has therefore always been the focus of environmental managers and planners. In other words, it is necessary to model the spread of wildfires, which can be used for utilizing forces and equipment most effectively. Cellular automaton is considered a very simple yet highly effective method that is very capable of modeling dynamic events, like urban development, spread of wildfires, disease outbreaks and others. This study used layers such as height, slope, aspect, vegetation density, roads, rivers and climate as its basis. This was a case study of the Golestan region’s jungles, which calculated the general accuracy of the wildfire spread model to be 65 percent, and the Cohen’s kappa coefficient to be 59 percent.

scholarly journals Forest Fire Spreading Using Free and Open-Source GIS Technologies

Geomatics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Michele Mangiameli ◽  
Giuseppe Mussumeci ◽  
Annalisa Cappello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Ignition Point ◽  
Gis Technologies ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Fire Spreading

Forest fires are one of the most dangerous events, causing serious land and environmental degradation. Indeed, besides the loss of a huge quantity of plant species, the effects of fires can go far beyond: desertification, increased risk of landslides, soil erosion, death of animals, etc. For these reasons, mathematical models able to predict fire spreading are needed in order to organize and optimize the extinguishing interventions during fire emergencies. This work presents a new system to simulate and predict the movement of the fire front based on free and open source Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and the Rothermel surface fire spread model, with the adjustments made by Albini. We describe the mathematical models used, provide an overview of the GIS design and implementation, and present the results of some simulations at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), characterized by high geomorphological heterogeneity, and where the native flora and fauna may be preserved and perpetuated. The results consist of raster maps representing the progress times of the fire front starting from an ignition point and as a function of the topography and wind directions. The reliability of results is strictly affected by the correct positioning of the fire ignition point, by the accuracy of the topography that describes the morphology of the territory, and by the setting of the meteorological conditions at the moment of the ignition and propagation of the fire.

Asset Location: Case Study of a Critical Variable

2001 ◽  
Vol 2001 (4) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
Jean L.P. Brunel
Keyword(s):  
Critical Variable ◽  
Asset Location

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Two Major Approaches for Mapping the Wildland-Urban Interface: A Case Study in California

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 679
Author(s):  
Avi Bar-Massada
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Practical Purpose ◽  
Spatial Arrangement ◽  
Spatial Accuracy ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface ◽  
Spatial Correspondence ◽  
Data Requirements

The Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) is where human settlements border or intermingle with undeveloped land, often with multiple detrimental consequences. Therefore, mapping the WUI is required in order to identify areas-at-risk. There are two main WUI mapping methods, the point-based approach and the zonal approach. Both differ in data requirements and may produce considerably different maps, yet they were never compared before. My objective was to systematically compare the point-based and the zonal-based WUI maps of California, and to test the efficacy of a new database of building locations in the context of WUI mapping. I assessed the spatial accuracy of the building database, and then compared the spatial patterns of WUI maps by estimating the effect of multiple ancillary variables on the amount of agreement between maps. I found that the building database is highly accurate and is suitable for WUI mapping. The point-based approach estimated a consistently larger WUI area across California compared to the zonal approach. The spatial correspondence between maps was low-to-moderate, and was significantly affected by building numbers and by their spatial arrangement. The discrepancy between WUI maps suggests that they are not directly comparable within and across landscapes, and that each WUI map should serve a distinct practical purpose.

A case study on fractal simulation of forest fire spread

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (S1) ◽  
pp. 104-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qijiang Zhu ◽  
Taizong Rong ◽  
Rui Sun
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fractal Simulation
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document