scholarly journals A Cautionary Note Regarding the Use of Cumulative Burnt Areas for the Determination of Fire Danger Index Breakpoints

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Pimont ◽  
J. Ruffault ◽  
N.K. Martin-StPaul ◽  
J.-L. Dupuy
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Cautionary Note ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Research Fields ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Burnt Areas ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
The Relationship

Identifying the links between fire danger metrics and fire activity is critical in various operational and research fields. A common methodology consists in analysing the relationship between cumulative burnt areas and fire danger metrics. Building on this approach, it has been proposed that fuel moisture content (FMC) drives fire activity in some ecosystems through between one and three breakpoints corresponding to the onset or saturation of fire activity. We demonstrate, through two different approaches, that this methodology is incorrect, because it is biased by the frequency distribution of FMC values. From comparison with a neutral fire distribution and correction for the frequency bias, we show that cumulative burnt area breakpoints are spurious: an upper breakpoint might exist (but would be higher than expected), while no evidence of reduced fire danger was detected for the lowest values of FMC (on the contrary, a secondary increase was detected). Our findings clearly suggest that previous breakpoints resulting from this methodology should be considered with caution, as erroneous conclusions regarding fire danger breakpoints could have major consequences for both fire safety and science outcomes. Finally, we discuss widespread confusion between fire danger breakpoints and fire danger levels, which explains most previous erroneous conclusions.

Characterising vegetation fuel moisture conditions from microwave satellite observations for fire danger prediction at continental to global scales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Forkel ◽  
Niels Andela ◽  
Wouter A. Dorigo ◽  
Markus Drüke ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

<p>Spatial patterns and temporal changes in live fuel moisture content (LFMC) have been intensively estimated from satellite observations in the optical domain of the electromagnetic spectrum. Such estimates are valuable to predict regional to local variations in fire danger (Yebra et al., 2018). However, optical satellite measurements saturate fast in dense canopies and are generally hampered during cloud cover. Microwave satellite observations can penetrate clouds and the canopy (dependent on the wavelength) and hence have been intensively used to derive surface soil moisture (SSM) or vegetation optical depth (VOD), which is a proxy for vegetation water content (Moesinger et al., 2019). However, the relationship of microwave VOD to LFMC and the predictive capabilities of VOD for fire dynamics have not yet been investigated at large scales. Here we aim to assess how VOD reflects changes in LFMC and the sensitivity of VOD to different properties of fire dynamics such as fire occurrence, size, burned area, and fire radiative power.</p><p>We compared VOD in different microwave bands (Ku-, X-, and C-band) from the VODCA dataset (Moesinger et al., 2019) with LFMC from MODIS retrievals (Yebra et al., 2018). Our results demonstrate that VOD and LFMC are moderately to highly correlated but the strength and shape of the relationship depends on land cover type. In a preliminary analysis, we then predicted the probability of fire occurrence (Andela et al., 2019) and fire radiative power (Kaiser et al., 2012) from VOD, SSM, and climate data using the random forest machine learning approach. The initial results show that VOD is a skilful predictor for continental-scale fire dynamics. Furthermore, our results suggest that the combination of LFMC from optical satellites with microwave SSM and VOD might allow to comprehensively estimate ecosystem fuel moisture conditions. Hence microwave satellite observations will be valuable for the development of integrated fire danger prediction systems.</p><p> </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Andela, N., Morton, D.C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., Werf, G.R. van der, Randerson, J.T., 2019. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 11, 529–552. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019</p><p>Kaiser, J.W., Heil, A., Andreae, M.O., Benedetti, A., Chubarova, N., Jones, L., Morcrette, J.-J., Razinger, M., Schultz, M.G., Suttie, M., van der Werf, G.R., 2012. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power. Biogeosciences 9, 527–554. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-527-2012</p><p>Moesinger, L., Dorigo, W., Jeu, R. de, Schalie, R. van der, Scanlon, T., Teubner, I., Forkel, M., 2019. The Global Long-term Microwave Vegetation Optical Depth Climate Archive VODCA. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 1–26. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-42</p><p>Yebra, M., Quan, X., Riaño, D., Rozas Larraondo, P., van Dijk, A.I.J.M., Cary, G.J., 2018. A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing. Remote Sens. Environ. 212, 260–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.04.053</p>

A global review of remote sensing of live fuel moisture content for fire danger assessment: Moving towards operational products

2013 ◽  
Vol 136 ◽  
pp. 455-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Yebra ◽  
Philip E. Dennison ◽  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
David Riaño ◽  
Philip Zylstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 2284-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Alexandros P Dimitrakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Ignition

Fuel moisture content (FMC) estimation is a critical part of any fire danger rating system, since fuel water status is determinant in fire ignition and fire propagation. However, FMC alone does not provide a comprehensive assessment of fire danger, since other factors related to fire ignition (lightning, human factors) or propagation (wind, slope) also need to be taken into account. The problem in integrating all these factors is finding a common scale of danger rating that will make it possible to derive synthetic indices. This paper reviews the importance of FMC in fire ignition and fire propagation, as well as the most common methods of estimating FMC values. A simple method to convert FMC values to danger ratings is proposed, based on computing ignition potential from thresholds of moisture of extinction adapted to each fuel. The method has been tested for the Madrid region (central Spain), where a fire danger assessment system has been built. All the variables related to fire danger were integrated into a dedicated geographic information system and information provided to fire managers through a web mapping server.

scholarly journals Estimation of dead fuel moisture content from meteorological data in Mediterranean areas. Applications in fire danger assessment

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 390 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Aguado ◽  
E. Chuvieco ◽  
R. Borén ◽  
H. Nieto
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Mediterranean Areas ◽  
Field Samples ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
In Fire

The estimation of moisture content of dead fuels is a critical variable in fire danger assessment since it is strongly related to fire ignition and fire spread potential. This study evaluates the accuracy of two well-known meteorological moisture codes, the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Content and the US 10-h, to estimate fuel moisture content of dead fuels in Mediterranean areas. Cured grasses and litter have been used for this study. The study was conducted in two phases. The former aimed to select the most efficient code, and the latter to produce a spatial representation of that index for operational assessment of fire danger conditions. The first phase required calibration and validation of an estimation model based on regression analysis. Field samples were collected in the Cabañeros National Park (Central Spain) for a six-year period (1998–2003). The estimations were more accurate for litter (r2 between 0.52) than for cured grasslands (r2 0.11). In addition, grasslands showed higher variability in the trends among the study years. The two moisture codes evaluated in this paper offered similar trends, therefore, the 10-h code was selected since it is simpler to compute. The second phase was based on interpolating the required meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) to compute the 10-h moisture code. The interpolation was based on European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) predictions. Finally, a simple method to combine the estimations of dead fuel moisture content with other variables associated to fire danger is presented in this paper. This method estimates the probability of ignition based on the moisture of extinction of each fuel type.

scholarly journals Live fuel moisture content time series in Catalonia since 1998

2021 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Gabriel ◽  
Ruth Delgado-Dávila ◽  
Miquel De Cáceres ◽  
Pere Casals ◽  
Antoni Tudela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
R Package ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Plant Responses ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Abstract Key message We present a structured and curated database covering 21 years of LFMC measurements in the Catalan region, along with an associated R package to manage updates and facilitate quality processing and visualisation. The data set provides valuable information to study plant responses to drought and improve fire danger prediction. Dataset access is at10.5281/zenodo.4675335, and associated metadata are available athttps://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/metadata/583fdbae-3200-4fa7-877c-54df0e6c5542.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic Impacts of Forest Fires upon Portugal: An Analysis for the Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vítor Martinho
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Returns To Scale ◽  
Increasing Returns ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Increasing Returns To Scale ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Burnt Areas ◽  
The Impact

Recent forest fire activity has resulted in several consequences across different geographic locations where both natural and socioeconomic conditions have promoted a favorable context for what has happened in recent years in a number of countries, including Portugal. As a result, it would be interesting to examine the implications of forest fire activity in terms of the socioeconomic dynamics and performance of the agroforestry sectors in the context of those verified in the Portuguese municipalities. For this purpose, data from Statistics on Portugal was considered for output and employment from the business sector related to agricultural and forestry activities, which were disaggregated at the municipality level, for the period 2008–2015. Data for the burnt area was also considered in order to assess the impact of forest fires. The data was analyzed using econometric models in panel data based on the Keynesian (Kaldor laws) and convergence (conditional approaches) theories. The results from the Keynesian approaches show that there are signs of increasing returns to scale in the Portuguese agroforestry sectors, where the burnt area increased employment growth in agricultural activities and decreased employment in the forestry sector. Forest fires seem to create favorable conditions for agricultural employment in Portuguese municipalities and the inverse occurs for forestry employment. Additionally, some signs of convergence were identified between Portuguese municipalities for agroforestry output and employment, as well for the burnt areas. However, signs of divergence (increasing returns to scale) from the Keynesian models seem to be stronger. On the other hand, the evidence of beta convergence for the burnt areas are stronger than those verified for other variables, showing that the impacts from forest fires are more transversal across the whole country (however not enough to have sigma convergence).

Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Isabel González ◽  
Felipe Verdú ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Marta Yebra
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

The present paper presents and discusses the relationships between live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) measurements and fire occurrence (number of fires and burned area) in a Mediterranean area of central Spain. Grasslands and four shrub species (Cistus ladanifer L., Rosmarinus officinalis L., Erica australis L. and Phillyrea angustifolia L.) were sampled in the field from the spring to the summer season over a 9-year period. Higher seasonal FMC variability was found for the herbaceous species than for shrubs, as grasslands have very low values in summertime. Moisture variations of grasslands were found to be good predictors of number of fires and total burned surface, while moisture variation of two shrubs (C. ladanifer L. and R. officinalis L.) was more sensitive to both the total burned area and the occurrence of large fires. All these species showed significant differences between the FMC of high and low occurrence periods. Three different logistic regression models were built for the 202 periods of analysis: one to predict periods with more and less than seven fires, another to predict periods with and without large fires (>500 ha), and the third to predict periods with more and less than 200 ha burned. The results showed accuracy in predicting periods with a high number of fires (94%), and extensive burned area (85%), with less accuracy in estimating periods with large fires (58%). Finally, empirical functions based on logistic regression analysis were successfully related to fire ignition or potential burned area from FMC data. These models should be useful to integrate FMC measurements with other variables of fire danger (ignition causes, for instance), to provide a more comprehensive assessment of fire danger conditions.

The relationship between the monsoonal summer rain and dry-season fire activity of northern Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 674 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Harris ◽  
N. Tapper ◽  
D. Packham ◽  
B. Orlove ◽  
N. Nicholls
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Area Distribution ◽  
Burnt Areas ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Summer Rain

Fire is an essential element of the northern Australian ecosystems with extensive areas burnt each year. The basic climate condition of high rainfall during the summer monsoon, followed by an extended warm dry winter, along with highly combustible vegetation (much of which grows rapidly during summer and senesces during winter), creates a highly flammable environment. These vegetation conditions change under various naturally occurring climate oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present paper investigates the link between burnt areas of northern Australia, rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SST) for a 9-year period (1997–2005). The burnt area distribution is compared with the strength and timing of the monthly averaged rainfall, SOI and SST. Results indicate a strong relationship between antecedent rainfall and ENSO indices with area burnt. This is especially strong between the burnt areas of June–October and the preceding rainfall of November–March (r = 0.90), the SOI of November–February (r = 0.78) and the SST of June–August (r = –0.64). The results from the present study reveal the ability to forecast annual burnt areas and present some of the dynamics of the climate–fire interactions and their value for management systems.

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