A comparison of the US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with recorded fire occurrence and final fire size

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas G. Walding ◽  
Hywel T. P. Williams ◽  
Scott McGarvie ◽  
Claire M. Belcher
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Staffing Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Most previous research has assessed the ability of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) to portray fire activity at either single sites or on small spatial scales, despite it being a nation-wide system. This study seeks to examine the relationships between a set of NFDRS fire danger indices (Fire Danger Ratings, Staffing Level and the Ignition Component) and measures of fire activity (fire occurrence and final fire size) across the entire conterminous US over an 8-year period. We reveal that different regions of the US display different levels of correspondence between each of the fire danger indices and recorded fire activity. Areas in the Southern and Eastern Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) exhibit weaker correlations than those in the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Basin and Northern California GACCs. Peaks in fire occurrence are shown to occur at mid–low values of fire danger whereas final fire sizes increase monotonically with each fire danger index. Our findings appear to align with perceived shifts in management practices currently employed across the US and indicate that the ability of the NFDRS to apportion the resources required to combat large fires is in general well developed.

scholarly journals Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: An Overview

1989 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 258-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Stocks ◽  
T. J. Lynham ◽  
B. D Lawson ◽  
M. E. Alexander ◽  
C. E. Van Wagner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Forest fire danger rating research in Canada was initiated by the federal government in 1925. Five different fire danger rating systems have been developed since that time, each with increasing universal applicability across Canada. The approach has been to build on previous danger rating systems in an evolutionary fashion and to use field experiments and empirical analysis extensively. The current system, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been under development by Forestry Canada since 1968. The first major subsystem of the CFFDRS, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations, and has been in use throughout Canada since 1970. The second major subsystem, the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System, accounts for variability in fire behavior among fuel types (predicting rate of spread, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity), was issued in interim form in 1984 with final production scheduled for 1990. A third major CFFDRS subsystem, the Canadian Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction (FOP) System, is currently being formulated. This paper briefly outlines the history and philosophy of fire danger rating research in Canada discussing in detail the structure of the current CFFDRS and its application and use by fire management agencies throughout Canada. Key words: fire danger, fire behavior, fire occurrence prediction, fuel moisture, fire danger rating system, fire management.

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: An Overview

1989 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 450-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Stocks ◽  
T. J. Lynham ◽  
B. D. Lawson ◽  
M. E. Alexander ◽  
C. E. Van Wagner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Forest fire danger rating research in Canada was initiated by the federal government in 1925. Five different fire danger rating systems have been developed since that time, each with increasing universal applicability across Canada. The approach has been to build on previous danger rating systems in an evolutionary fashion and to use field experiments and empirical analysis extensively. The current system, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been under development by Forestry Canada since 1968. The first major subsystem of the CFFDRS, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations, and has been in use throughout Canada since 1970. The second major subsystem, the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System, accounts for variability in fire behavior among fuel types (predicting rate of spread, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity), was issued in interim form in 1984 with final production scheduled for 1990. A third major CFFDRS subsystem, the Canadian Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction (FOP) System, is currectly being formulated. This paper briefly outline the history and philosophy of fire danger rating research in Canada discussing in detail the structure of the current CFFDRS and its application and use by fire management agencies throughout Canada. Key words: fire danger, fire behavior, fire occurrence prediction, fuel moisture, fire danger rating system, fire management.

Preliminary study on the validation of ECMWF with the ground-based data for the Indonesia Fire Danger Rating System (Ina-FDRS)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reni Sulistyowati ◽  
Fanny Meliani ◽  
Marina C. G. Frederik ◽  
Rizki Amaliyah ◽  
Zilda Dona Okta Permata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

The Oklahoma Fire Danger Model: An operational tool for mesoscale fire danger rating in Oklahoma

2002 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Carlson ◽  
Robert E. Burgan ◽  
David M. Engle ◽  
Justin R. Greenfield
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Usda Forest Service ◽  
University Of Oklahoma ◽  
Oklahoma Mesonet ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

This paper describes the Oklahoma Fire Danger Model, an operational fire danger rating system for the state of Oklahoma (USA) developed through joint efforts of Oklahoma State University, the University of Oklahoma, and the Fire Sciences Laboratory of the USDA Forest Service in Missoula, Montana. The model is an adaptation of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) to Oklahoma, but more importantly, represents the first time anywhere that NFDRS has been implemented operationally using hourly weather data from a spatially dense automated weather station network (the Oklahoma Mesonet). Weekly AVHRR satellite imagery is also utilized for live fuel moisture and fuel load calculations. The result is a near-real-time mesoscale fire danger rating system to 1-km resolution whose output is readily available on the World Wide Web (http://agweather.mesonet.ou.edu/models/fire). Examples of output from 25 February 1998 are presented.The Oklahoma Fire Danger Model, in conjunction with other fire-related operational tools, has proven useful to the wildland fire management community in Oklahoma, for both wildfire anticipation and suppression and for prescribed fire activities. Instead of once-per-day NFDRS information at two to three sites, the fire manager now has statewide fire danger information available at 1-km resolution at up to hourly intervals, enabling a quicker response to changing fire weather conditions across the entire state.

Application of the Nelson model to four timelag fuel classes using Oklahoma field observations: model evaluation and comparison with National Fire Danger Rating System algorithms

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 204 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Carlson ◽  
Larry S. Bradshaw ◽  
Ralph M. Nelson ◽  
Randall R. Bensch ◽  
Rafal Jabrzemski
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Field Observations ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Nelson Model ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Better Than

The application of a next-generation dead-fuel moisture model, the ‘Nelson model’, to four timelag fuel classes using an extensive 21-month dataset of dead-fuel moisture observations is described. Developed by Ralph Nelson in the 1990s, the Nelson model is a dead-fuel moisture model designed to take advantage of frequent automated weather observations. Originally developed for 10-h fuels, the model is adaptable to other fuel size classes through modification of the model’s fuel stick parameters. The algorithms for dead-fuel moisture in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), on the other hand, were originally developed in the 1970s, utilise once-a-day weather information, and were designed to estimate dead-fuel moisture for mid-afternoon conditions. Including all field observations over the 21-month period, the Nelson model showed improvement over NFDRS for each size fuel size class, with r2 values ranging from 0.51 (1000-h fuels) to 0.79 (10-h fuels). However, for observed fuel moisture at or below 30%, the NFDRS performed better than the Nelson model for 1-h fuels and was about the same accuracy as the Nelson for 10-h fuels. The Nelson model is targeted for inclusion in the next-generation NFDRS.

scholarly journals Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Central ◽  
Forest Fire Management

Forest fire management relies on the fire danger rating to optimize its suite of activities. Limiting fire size is the fire management target whenever minimizing burned area is the primary goal, such as in the Mediterranean Basin. Within the region, wildfire incidence is especially acute in Portugal, a country where fire-influencing anthropogenic and landscape features vary markedly within a relatively small area. This study establishes daily fire weather thresholds associated to transitions to increasingly larger fires for individual Portuguese regions (2001–2011 period), using the national wildfire and Canadian fire weather index (FWI) databases and logistic regression. FWI thresholds variation in relation to population density, topography, land cover, and net primary production (NPP) metrics is examined through regression and cluster analysis. Larger fires occur under increasingly higher fire danger. Resistance to fire spread (the fire-size FWI thresholds) varies regionally following biophysical gradients, and decreases under more complex topography and when NPP and occupation by flammable forest or by shrubland increase. Three main clusters synthesize these relationships and roughly coincide with the western north-central, eastern north-central and southern parts of the country. Quantification of fire-weather relationships can be improved through additional variables and analysis at other spatial scales.

A Method to Initialize the Keetch-Byram Drought Index

1993 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 109-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Burgan
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Dead Vegetation ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

Abstract The 1988 National Fire Danger Rating System implements the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. This index is output both as an estimator of drought in its own right and is used to modify fire danger calculations to account for deep drying of dead vegetation and duff. A method initializes this index for those fire danger rating stations that do not run the National Fire Danger Rating System all year long. West J. Appl. For. 8(4)109-115.

Reanalysis of ECMWF data for updating the Fire Weather Index for the Indonesia Fire Danger Rating System (InaFDRS)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andri Purwandani ◽  
Marina C. G. Frederik ◽  
Reni Sulistyowati ◽  
Lena Sumargana ◽  
Fanny Meliani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System
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