scholarly journals An empirically based approach to defining wildland firefighter safety and survival zone separation distances

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley G. Page ◽  
Bret W. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Burn Injury ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fuel Type ◽  
Safety Zone ◽  
Fatal Injury ◽  
Firefighter Safety ◽  
Injury Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Probability

Wildland firefighters in the US are mandated to identify areas that provide adequate separation between themselves and the flames (i.e. safety zones) to reduce the risk of burn injury. This study presents empirical models that estimate the distance from flames that would result in a low probability (1 or 5%) of either fatal or non-fatal injuries. The significant variables for the fatal injury model were fire shelter use, slope steepness and flame height. The separation distances needed to ensure no more than a 1 or 5% probability of fatal injury, without the use of a fire shelter, for slopes less than 25% were 20 to 50 m for flame heights less than 10 m, and 1 to 4 times the flame height for flames taller than 10 m. The non-fatal injury model significant variables were fire shelter use, vehicle use and fuel type. At the 1 and 5% probability thresholds for a non-fatal injury, without the use of a fire shelter, the separation distances were 1 to 2, 6 to 7, and 12 to 16 times greater than the current safety zone guideline (i.e. 4 times the flame height) for timber, brush and grass fuel types respectively.

scholarly journals Wildland firefighter safety zones: a review of past science and summary of future needs

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 295 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. W. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Burn Injury ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Flame Temperature ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Radiant Heating ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Safety Zone ◽  
Flat Terrain ◽  
Firefighter Safety

Current wildland firefighter safety zone guidelines are based on studies that assume flat terrain, radiant heating, finite flame width, constant flame temperature and high flame emissivity. Firefighter entrapments and injuries occur across a broad range of vegetation, terrain and atmospheric conditions generally when they are within two flame heights of the fire. Injury is not confined to radiant heating or flat terrain; consequently, convective heating should be considered as a potential heating mode. Current understanding of energy transport in wildland fires is briefly summarised, followed by an analysis of burn injury mechanisms within the context of wildland fire safety zones. Safety zone theoretical and experimental studies are reviewed and a selection of wildland fire entrapments are examined within the context of safe separation distances from fires. Recommendations are made for future studies needed to more fully understand and define wildland firefighter safety zones.

Core Temperature Responses To Exercise Using A Simulated Burn Injury Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (5S) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Matthew N. Cramer ◽  
Ken Kouda ◽  
Gilbert Moralez ◽  
Paula Y.S. Poh ◽  
Daniel Gagnon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Core Temperature ◽  
Burn Injury ◽  
Injury Model ◽  
Temperature Responses

scholarly journals Bridging the divide between fire safety research and fighting fire safely: how do we convey research innovation to contribute more effectively to wildland firefighter safety?

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore 'Ted' Adams ◽  
Bret W. Butler ◽  
Sara Brown ◽  
Vita Wright ◽  
Anne Black
Keyword(s):  
Fire Safety ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Media Richness ◽  
Primary Research ◽  
Safety Zone ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Firefighter Safety ◽  
Safety Research ◽  
Getting Lost

Creating a safe workplace for wildland firefighters has long been at the centre of discussion for researchers and practitioners. The goal of wildland fire safety research has been to protect operational firefighters, yet its contributions often fall short of potential because much is getting lost in the translation of peer-reviewed results to potential and intended users. When information that could enhance safety is not adopted by individuals, the potential to improve safety – to decipher the wildland fire physical or social environment and to recognise hazards – is lost. We use firefighter safety-zone research as a case study to examine how primary research is, and could be, transferred to fire managers, policy-makers and firefighters. We apply four core communication theories (diffusion, translation, discourse and media richness) to improve knowledge transfer.

Trump highlights pitfalls of election prediction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Analytical Quality ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Election Prediction ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
Take All

Subject Elections analysis versus prediction. Significance The nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican Party's candidate for the US presidency raises questions for how analysts ought to respond to unlikely scenarios and how 'analysis' differs in its construction from prediction. His victory raises the question whether the low probability assigned by many observers to his chance of winning was accurate, and he nevertheless won due to the inherent volatility of primary politics, or if it was the result of fundamentally flawed modelling from the outset. Impacts Past elections suggest Republicans will face hurdles in the Midwest and Northeast against Clinton, but Trump argues he has unique appeal. Gauging analytical quality on the basis of a single high-profile event may encourage misleading deference to previously correct analysts. Including uncertainty levels is a key, but often neglected, part of creating sound predictive models. Threshold events, such as a 'winner-take-all' primary or 'first-past-the-post' election, can see minor shifts lead to outsized outcomes.

The optimal time for early burn wound excision to reduce pro-inflammatory cytokine production in a murine burn injury model

Burns ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1059-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ko-Chang Chang ◽  
Hsu Ma ◽  
Wen-Chieh Liao ◽  
Chih-Kang Lee ◽  
Chia-Yi Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inflammatory Cytokine ◽  
Cytokine Production ◽  
Burn Injury ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Burn Wound ◽  
Inflammatory Cytokine Production ◽  
Injury Model ◽  
Wound Excision

Firefighter Safety Zones: A Theoretical Model Based on Radiative Heating

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
BW Butler ◽  
JD Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
General Rule ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Safety Zone ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Zone Radius ◽  
Height Model

Quantitative information regarding safety zone size for wildland firefighters is limited. We present a 3-surface theoretical model that describes the net radiant energy transfer to a firefighter standing a specified distance from a fire of specified height. Model predictions compare favorably with qualitative data from entrapments on four wildfires and two previously published models. Calculations indicate that for most fires, safety zones must be greater than 20 m wide to ensure firefighter survival. A general rule-of-thumb derived from this work is that a safety zone radius must be equal to or greater than 4 times the maximum flame height.

scholarly journals Methodology and applicability of the human contact burn injury model: A systematic review

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254790
Author(s):  
Anders Deichmann Springborg ◽  
Caitlin Rae Wessel ◽  
Lars Peter Kloster Andersen ◽  
Mads Utke Werner
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Burn Injury ◽  
Analgesic Efficacy ◽  
Drug Efficacy ◽  
Analgesic Drug ◽  
Pain Model ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Clinical Pain ◽  
Injury Model ◽  
Limited Testing

The contact burn injury model is an experimental contact thermode-based physiological pain model primarily applied in research of drug efficacy in humans. The employment of the contact burn injury model across studies has been inconsistent regarding essential methodological variables, challenging the validity of the model. This systematic review analyzes methodologies, outcomes, and research applications of the contact burn injury model. Based on these results, we propose an improved contact burn injury testing paradigm. A literature search was conducted (15-JUL-2020) using PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Sixty-four studies were included. The contact burn injury model induced consistent levels of primary and secondary hyperalgesia. However, the analyses revealed variations in the methodology of the contact burn injury heating paradigm and the post-burn application of test stimuli. The contact burn injury model had limited testing sensitivity in demonstrating analgesic efficacy. There was a weak correlation between experimental and clinical pain intensity variables. The data analysis was limited by the methodological heterogenicity of the different studies and a high risk of bias across the studies. In conclusion, although the contact burn injury model provides robust hyperalgesia, it has limited efficacy in testing analgesic drug response. Recommendations for future use of the model are being provided, but further research is needed to improve the sensitivity of the contact burn injury method. The protocol for this review has been published in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42019133734).

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