Evaluation of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) to improve forest fire danger rating

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelene C. Hanes ◽  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Vincent Fortin ◽  
Guy Roy
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Precipitation Analysis ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
The Impact

The Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the basic method of fire danger rating for fire management agencies in Canada. The spatial interpolation of this weather-based system can be difficult in areas where weather stations are sparse. Previous studies have shown that interpolation of precipitation is especially problematic owing to the isolated nature of convective summer storms. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has recently developed the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), a gridded precipitation product that integrates forecast data, station observations and Doppler radar, to improve precipitation estimates. The objective of the present study was to evaluate whether CaPA is indeed superior to the currently used interpolation method (thin-plate spline), and to assess the impact of the two precipitation estimates on the FWI System for the province of Ontario. Overall, the results showed the CaPA had increased skill in areas of radar coverage. In non-radar areas, where the ECCC station network was much sparser, there were less significant differences between the methods. Precipitation estimates from the CaPA also significantly improved the estimation of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Initial Spread Index and FWI in areas of radar coverage, improving estimates of potential fire danger.

A Study on the Interpolation of Fire Danger Using Radar Precipitation Estimates

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan ◽  
BM Wotton ◽  
S Ziga
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Weather Stations

In Canada, many fire management agencies interpolate indexes of the Fire Weather Index System to estimate the fire danger between weather stations. Difficulties with interpolation arise because summer precipitation can be highly variable over short distances. This variability hinders the usefulness of interpolating precipitation, which is one of the inputs for the Fire Weather Index System. Precipitation estimates from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service radar at Upsala, Ontario, were used to determine if this will enable a more accurate measure of the fire danger over the region. Three methods of interpolation of the fire danger between weather stations were compared: first, the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes from weather stations to any specified location; second, interpolating the weather variables, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation from the weather station to any specified site and then calculating the fire weather indexes; third, interpolating weather variables as in Method 2 above except using the precipitation estimate from the radar and then calculating the fire weather indexes for any specified site. Overall, results indicate that the standard procedure of interpolating the fire weather indexes performs better than the other two methods. However, there are indexes where the other methods perform best (e.g., the fine fuel moisture code is best determined by using the radar precipitation estimation method). Fire management agencies should continue to use the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes to estimate fire danger between weather stations. Factors influencing the performance of the radar estimated precipitation method of estimating fire danger are discussed along with potential application of precipitation radar for fire management purposes.

Evaluation of ERS SAR data for prediction of fire danger in a Boreal region

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura L. Bourgeau-Chavez ◽  
Eric S. Kasischke ◽  
Mark D. Rutherford
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire

Research was conducted to determine the utility of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for measuring the fuel moisture status of boreal forests as reflected in Fire Weather Index Codes. Three years (May to August 1992–1995) of SAR data from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) were analysed over the 1990 Tok Alaska burned and adjacent unburned black spruce forests. Corresponding Fire Weather Index Codes of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System were obtained from Tok Area Forestry, Station number 500720. Strong relationships were expected between the SAR data and fire codes because of the dependence of ERS SAR backscatter on the moisture status of forests and exposed surfaces (burn scars). Astepwise multilinear regression procedure was used to analyse the relationships. Three statistically significant multilinear regression models resulted from this analysis procedure. The models developed show there is potential for using ERS SAR backscatter to generate indicators that are related to Fire Weather Index, Duff Moisture Code, and Drought Code. This research could lead to the ability for remote prediction of fire danger over large regions at relatively fine spatial resolution with minimal weather information.

scholarly journals Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassiliki Varela ◽  
Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽  
Athanasios Sfetsos ◽  
Stelios Karozis ◽  
Nadia Politi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Decision Support Process

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

scholarly journals APLICACIÓN DEL ÍNDICE METEOROLÓGICO DE INCENDIOS CANADIENSE EN UN PARQUE NACIONAL DEL CENTRO DE MÉXICO

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 25-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lourdes Villers-Ruiz ◽  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Para Determinar ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Entre los sistemas de alerta temprana de incendios forestales destaca el desarrollado por el Servicio Forestal de Canadá, denominado Fire Weather Index (FWI). Con el fin de contribuir a la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana, se utilizó este índice para determinar las condiciones de peligro a incendios en el Parque Nacional Malinche a partir de una serie de datos diarios de enero 2004 a octubre 2009 de cinco estaciones meteorológicas automáticas instaladas en el parque a una altitud de 3,000 m, se hicieron los cálculos de los elementos que contiene el índice; para ello, se empleó la versión automatizada del Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Se realizaron correlaciones y se crearon cuatro categorías con los valores de los componentes, según la frecuencia de incendios y el área siniestrada. También, se señalaron, los valores de temperatura máxima y mínima, humedad relativa y lluvia por categoría. Se constituyeron los umbrales mínimos de gran peligrosidad a incendios para cada uno de los elementos. En el caso del código de humedad de los combustibles finos, el umbral se estableció en 80 puntos; de superarse este valor, el número de incendios por día se incrementa sustancialmente. El código de sequía, el Índice de dispersión inicial del fuego; así como, el Índice acumulado fueron los más significativos en relación a la frecuencia de incendios, por lo que se calculó la probabilidad de estos eventos, para ciertos intervalos de los elementos considerados.

scholarly journals Development of Google Earth Engine Fire Weather Index Calculator for Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System

2021 ◽  
Vol 936 (1) ◽  
pp. 012040
Author(s):  
J S Matondang ◽  
H Sanjaya ◽  
R Arifandri
Keyword(s):  
Google Earth ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Google Earth Engine ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

Abstract Tropical peatlands make up almost ten percent of the land surface in Indonesia, making peat fires detrimental not only for global atmospheric carbon levels, but also to public health and socioeconomic activities in the region. Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) was developed based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS), using three different fuel codes and three indices representing fire behaviour. Daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) calculation is done by the Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) with data from its synoptic weather stations network. Distribution of such weather stations are sparse, therefore this paper reports on the development of Fire Weather Index calculator on Google Earth Engine, using high resolution weather data, provided by weather model and remote-sensing open datasets. The resulting application is capable of generating daily maps of FWI components to be used by the Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System.

A Comparison of Fire-Weather Severity in Northern Alberta During the 1980 and 1981 Fire Seasons

1986 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 507-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Harvey ◽  
M. E. Alexander ◽  
B. Janz
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Severity Rating ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Objective Basis ◽  
Northern Alberta

The burning potential of two major fire seasons in northern Alberta is evaluated with the use of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Fire danger class frequency and severity ratings based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component in the CFFDRS were utilized in the evaluation. Daily fire-danger reports from 16 selected fire weather stations distributed throughout the northern half of the province provided the basis for the analysis. Although the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) for 1981 was slightly higher (SSR = 3.1) than that of 1980 (SSR = 2.5), the area burned in 1981 was about double that of the previous year. The period of critical fire weather began early in the 1980 fire season and prior to the normal summer lightning pattern, whereas in 1981 it occurred during the latter half of the fire season and coincided with the majority of the lightning incidence. FWI severity ratings were not designed to portray a complete picture of the total potential fire containment job but rather to provide an objective basis on which to compare the severity of one season's fire weather with another. Key words: Fire Weather index, fire season seventy rating, critical fire weather, lightning occurrence, northern Alberta.

scholarly journals Forest Fire Risk Estimation in a Typical Temperate Forest in Northeastern China using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, Case of Autumn 2019 and 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maombi Mbusa Masinda ◽  
Fei Li ◽  
Qi Liu ◽  
Long Sun ◽  
Tongxin Hu
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Temperate Forest ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
P Value ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract China's forest cover has increased by about 10% as a result of sustainable forest management since the late 1970s. The forest ecosystems area affected by fire is increasing at the alarming rate of roughly 600.000 ha per year. The northeastern part of China, with a forest cover of 41.6%, has the greatest percentage of acres affected by forest fires. This study combines field and satellite weather data to determine factors that influence dead fuel moisture content (FMC). It assesses the use of the Canadian forest fire weather index (FWI) to determine the daily forest fire danger in a typical temperate forest in northeastern China in the fall season. Based on the Wilcoxon test for paired samples, the observed and predicted values of FMC showed similar variation in 63.6% of sampling sites, with p-value > 0.05; and 36.4 % of sampling sites presented lower predicted values of FMC than observed values, with p-value < 0.05. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System estimated the fire danger level as very low, low, moderate, high, or very high in our Maoer mountain forest ecosystems.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1477-1490 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
O. Hyvärinen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Abstract. Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.

Changes in forest fire danger for south-western China in the 21st century

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-rui Tian ◽  
Feng-jun Zhao ◽  
Li-fu Shu ◽  
Ming-yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Western China ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Extreme Fire

This paper predicts future changes in fire danger and the fire season in the current century for south-western China under two different climate change scenarios. The fire weather index (FWI) system calculated from daily outputs of a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 50×50km was used to assess fire danger. Temperature and precipitation demonstrated a gradually increasing trend for the future. Forest fire statistics for 1987–2011 revealed that the FWI, initial spread index and seasonal severity rating were significantly related to the number of forest fires between 100 and 1000ha in size. Over three future periods, the FWI component indices will increase greatly. The mean FWI value will increase by 0.83–1.85, 1.83–2.91 and 3.33–3.97 in the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The regions with predicted FWI increases are mainly in central and south-eastern China. The fire season (including days with high, very high and extreme fire danger ratings) will be prolonged by 9–13, 18–21 and 28–31 days over these periods. This fire season extension will mainly be due to days with an extreme fire danger rating. Considering predicted future changes in the forest fire danger rating and the fire season, it is suggested that climate change adaptation measures be implemented.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document