Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiganoush K. Preisler ◽  
Karin L. Riley ◽  
Crystal S. Stonesifer ◽  
Dave E. Calkin ◽  
W. Matthew Jolly

Fire danger and potential for large fires in the United States (US) is currently indicated via several forecasted qualitative indices. However, landscape-level quantitative forecasts of the probability of a large fire are currently lacking. In this study, we present a framework for forecasting large fire occurrence – an extreme value event – and evaluating measures of uncertainties that do not rely on distributional assumptions. The statistical model presented here incorporates qualitative fire danger indices along with other location and seasonal specific explanatory variables to produce maps of forecasted probability of an ignition becoming a large fire, as well as numbers of large fires with measures of uncertainties. As an example, 6 years of fire occurrence data from the Western US were used to study the utility of two fire danger indices: the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook issued by Predictive Services in the US and the National Fire Danger Rating’s Energy Release Component. This exercise highlights the potential utility of the quantitative risk index as a real-time decision support tool that can enhance managers’ abilities to discriminate among planning areas in terms of the likelihood and range of expected significant fire events. The approach is applicable wherever there are archived historical data from both observed fires and fire danger indices.

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Joshua Clark ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Nicholas J. Nauslar ◽  
Alistair M.S. Smith

Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) issued by the National Weather Service in the United States (U.S.) are an important early warning system for fire potential based on forecasts of critical fire weather that promote increased fire activity, including the occurrence of large fires. However, verification of RFWs as they relate to fire activity is lacking, thereby limiting means to improve forecasts as well as increase value for end users. We evaluated the efficacy of RFWs as forecasts of large fire occurrence for the Northwestern U.S.—RFWs were shown to have widespread significant skill and yielded an overall 124% relative improvement in forecasting large fire occurrences than a reference forecast. We further demonstrate that the skill of RFWs is significantly higher for lightning-ignited large fires than for human-ignited fires and for forecasts issued during periods of high fuel dryness than those issued in the absence of high fuel dryness. The results of this first verification study of RFWs related to actualized fire activity lay the groundwork for future efforts towards improving the relevance and usefulness of RFWs and other fire early warning systems to better serve the fire community and public.


2020 ◽  
pp. 088626052096186
Author(s):  
Ann C. Eckardt Erlanger ◽  
Richard E. Heyman ◽  
Amy M. Smith Slep

Child maltreatment and intimate partner abuse determinations often include judgments (e.g., severity) that go beyond whether or not the allegations are founded. Severity ratings inform multiple stakeholders (e.g., researchers, policymakers, clinicians, supervisors) and response pathways (e.g., “differential response” to child maltreatment). However, because severity guidelines typically only provide global direction for raters, these gradations are often of questionable reliability (and thus validity). Extending earlier work developing and implementing reliable and valid family maltreatment substantiation criteria (e.g., Heyman & Slep, 2006 , 2009 ), a classification system for maltreatment severity was created, refined, and field-tested with a sample of clinicians from the largest maltreatment protection agency in the United States The goal was to develop operationalized criteria delineating mild, moderate, and severe maltreatment that could be consistently applied across types of maltreatment, raters, and clinics. To facilitate proper use, a computerized clinical decision support tool for the criteria was created. First, the severity classification system was piloted and refined at four sites throughout the United States. Then, clinicians at these sites ( N = 28) and a master reviewer independently rated de-identified cases as part of the clinicians’ routine assessments. Agreement between clinicians and the master reviewer was excellent for all types of maltreatment. Implications for practical dissemination are discussed.


Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 1413-1413
Author(s):  
Paula Tanabe ◽  
Ted Wun ◽  
Victoria Thornton ◽  
Knox Todd ◽  
John S Lyons

Abstract Abstract 1413 Poster Board I-436 Objectives: There are relatively few centers across the United States that either specialize in SCD care or have day hospitals where patients can be evaluated and urgently treated for acute pain crises. While most patients come to the ED for management of an acute pain crisis, SCD patients are at risk for many life-threatening complications. Most patients with SCD require an ED visit at some point. The complexity of SCD warrants a comprehensive assessment in the emergency department. While it may be challenging to conduct such an assessment in the ED, a succinct decision support tool may help guide clinicians in the performance of such an assessment. The benefits of such an assessment would identify unmet patient needs and help guide ED management and referrals. The goal of this project was to develop a brief, easy to use tool that guides the emergency clinicians in the identification of such needs and aid in accomplishing the following goals: 1) rapidly and aggressively manage ED pain, 2) identify other life-threatening conditions, 3) decrease hospital admission rates, 4) decrease return visits to the ED, 5) identify and increase the number of referrals made from the ED setting, and 6) increase both patient and clinician satisfaction with the ED experience. Methods: A series of seven clinician and patient focus groups were conducted in four cities across the United States (Chicago, Denver, Durham, and New York) to obtain key stakeholder input. Visits at three SCD centers of excellence (University of Colorado Denver, Duke University, Virginia Commonwealth University) were conducted, a literature search was conducted, and the PI attended SCD clinics to observe practice patterns with sickle cell experts at the University of Illinois and University of Chicago sickle cell clinics. Focus group data was analyzed using qualitative methods and is reported elsewhere. All data was synthesized and a draft tool was created and reviewed by outside experts. Revisions were made. Results: The following six key decisions were identified as being critical in achieving the tools aims: (1) what is the correct triage level, (2) how should pain be treated, (3) does the patient require a diagnostic work-up, (4) should the patient be admitted to the hospital, (5) if discharged home, is there a need for analgesic prescriptions, and (6) does the patient need a referral to a sickle cell expert or mental health or social services? Supporting data elements for each decision were also identified and included as part of the tool which will be formulated into an easy to use algorithm. Data elements include key history and physical indicators of a potential high risk situation necessitating further evaluation, pain assessment and history of analgesic use, relationship with a sickle cell expert, ED and hospital utilization history, and evaluation of psychosocial needs (self-report of anxiety or depression, work/employment status, home situation). Conclusions: Critical decisions and associated supporting elements to facilitate ED management were identified. Future work will involve finalizing and testing this communimetric tool, which will guide emergency department evaluation and management, as well as guide analgesic management in real time. Disclosures: Tanabe: NIH, and Mayday Fund: Research Funding. Todd: NIH: Research Funding; Xanodyne: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; Alpharma: Consultancy; Abbott: Consultancy; Baxter Healthcare: Consultancy; Fralex Therapeutics: Consultancy; Intranasal Therapeutics: Consultancy; Baxter Health: Research Funding; Roxro: Consultancy.


Weed Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-473
Author(s):  
Douglas Bessette ◽  
Robyn Wilson ◽  
Christian Beaudrie ◽  
Clayton Schroeder

AbstractWeeds remain the most commonly cited concern of organic farmers. Without the benefit of synthetic herbicides, organic farmers must rely on a host of ecological weed management (EWM) practices to control weeds. Despite EWM’s ability to improve soil quality, the perceived rate of integrated EWM strategy adoption remains low. This low adoption is likely a result of the complexity in designing and evaluating EWM strategies, the tendency for outreach to focus on the risks of EWM strategies rather than their benefits, and a lack of quantitative measures linking the performance of EWM strategies to farmers’ on-farm objectives and practices. Here we report on the development and deployment of an easy-to-use online decision support tool (DST) that aids organic farmers in identifying their on-farm objectives, characterizing the performance of their practices, and evaluating EWM strategies recommended by an expert advisory panel. Informed by the principles of structured decision making, the DST uses multiple choice tasks to help farmers evaluate the short- and long-term trade-offs of EWM strategies, while also focusing their attention on their most important objectives. We then invited organic farmers across the United States, in particular those whose email addresses were registered on the USDA’s Organic Research Integrity Database, to engage the DST online. Results show considerable movement in participants’ (n = 45) preferences from practices focused on reducing weeding costs and labor in the short term to EWM strategies focused on improving soil quality in the long term. Indeed, nearly half of those farmers (48%) who initially ranked a strategy composed of their current practices highest ultimately preferred a better-performing EWM strategy focused on eliminating the weed seedbank over 5 yr.


2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 565-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd J. Hawbaker ◽  
Volker C. Radeloff ◽  
Susan I. Stewart ◽  
Roger B. Hammer ◽  
Nicholas S. Keuler ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
S. M. Howard ◽  
J. J. Picotte ◽  
M. J. Coan

In 2006, the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project began a cooperative effort between the US Forest Service (USFS) and the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess burn severity all large fires that have occurred in the United States since 1984. Using Landsat imagery, MTBS is mandated to map wildfire and prescribed fire that meet specific size criteria: greater than 1000 acres in the west and 500 acres in the east, regardless of ownership. Relying mostly on federal and state fire occurrence records, over 15,300 individual fires have been mapped. While mapping recorded fires, an additional 2,700 "unknown" or undocumented fires were discovered and assessed. It has become apparent that there are perhaps thousands of undocumented fires in the US that are yet to be mapped. Fire occurrence records alone are inadequate if MTBS is to provide a comprehensive accounting of fire across the US. Additionally, the sheer number of fires to assess has overwhelmed current manual procedures. To address these problems, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Applied Sciences Program is helping to fund the efforts of the USGS and its MTBS partners (USFS, National Park Service) to develop, and implement a system to automatically identify fires using satellite data. In near real time, USGS will combine active fire satellite detections from MODIS, AVHRR and GOES satellites with Landsat acquisitions. Newly acquired Landsat imagery will be routinely scanned to identify freshly burned area pixels, derive an initial perimeter and tag the burned area with the satellite date and time of detection. Landsat imagery from the early archive will be scanned to identify undocumented fires. Additional automated fire assessment processes will be developed. The USGS will develop these processes using open source software packages in order to provide freely available tools to local land managers providing them with the capability to assess fires at the local level.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Strifler ◽  
Jan M. Barnsley ◽  
Michael Hillmer ◽  
Sharon E. Straus

Abstract Background: Implementation theories, models and frameworks offer guidance when implementing and sustaining healthcare evidence-based interventions. However, selection can be challenging given the myriad of potential options. We propose to develop a decision support tool to facilitate the appropriate selection of an implementation theory, model or framework in practice. To inform tool development, this study aimed to explore barriers and facilitators to identifying and selecting implementation theories, models and frameworks in research and practice, as well as end-user preferences for features and functions of the proposed tool.Methods: We used an interpretive descriptive approach to conduct semi-structured interviews with implementation researchers and practitioners in Canada, the United States and Australia. Audio recordings were transcribed verbatim. Data were inductively coded by a single investigator with a subset of 20% coded independently by a second investigator and analyzed using thematic analysis.Results: Twenty-four individuals participated in the study. Categories of barriers/facilitators, to inform tool development, included characteristics of the individual or team conducting implementation and characteristics of the implementation theory, model or framework. Major barriers to selection included inconsistent terminology, poor fit with the implementation context and limited knowledge about and training in existing theories, models and frameworks. Major facilitators to selection included the importance of clear and concise language and evidence that the theory, model or framework was applied in a relevant health setting or context. Participants were enthusiastic about the development of a decision support tool that is user-friendly, accessible and practical. Preferences for tool features included key questions about the implementation intervention or project (e.g., purpose, stage of implementation, intended target for change) and a comprehensive list of relevant theories, models and frameworks to choose from along with a glossary of terms and the contexts in which they were applied.Conclusions: An easy to use decision support tool that addresses key barriers to selecting an implementation theory, model or framework in practice may be beneficial to individuals who facilitate implementation practice activities. Findings on end-user preferences for tool features and functions will inform tool development and design through a user-centered approach.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 202 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Horel ◽  
Robert Ziel ◽  
Chris Galli ◽  
Judith Pechmann ◽  
Xia Dong

A web-based set of tools has been developed to integrate weather, fire danger and fire behaviour information for the Great Lakes region of the United States. Weather parameters obtained from selected observational networks are combined with operational high-resolution gridded analyses and forecast products from the United States National Weather Service. Fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices in the Fire Weather Index subsystem of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are computed from these sources for current and forecast conditions. Applications of this Great Lakes Fire and Fuels System are demonstrated for the 2012 fire season. Fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices computed from gridded analyses differ from those derived from observations in a manner similar to the analysis errors typical for the underlying weather parameters. Indices that are particularly sensitive to seasonally accumulating precipitation, such as the Drought Code, exhibit the largest differences. The gridded analyses and forecasts provide considerable additional information for fire weather professionals to evaluate weather and fuel state in the region. The potential utility of these gridded analyses and forecasts throughout the continental United States is highlighted.


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