Calibration of the Fire Weather Index over Mediterranean Europe based on fire activity retrieved from MSG satellite imagery

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Teresa J. Calado ◽  
Sofia L. Ermida ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
Malik Amraoui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Relative Number ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Mediterranean Europe

Here we present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily maps of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. These are based on integrated use of vegetation cover maps, weather data and fire activity as detected by remote sensing from space. The study covers the period of July–August 2007 to 2009. It is demonstrated that statistical models based on two-parameter generalised Pareto (GP) distributions adequately fit the observed samples of fire duration and that these models are significantly improved when the Fire Weather Index (FWI), which rates fire danger, is integrated as a covariate of scale parameters of GP distributions. Probabilities of fire duration exceeding specified thresholds are then used to calibrate FWI leading to the definition of five classes of fire danger. Fire duration is estimated on the basis of 15-min data provided by Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites and corresponds to the total number of hours in which fire activity is detected in a single MSG pixel during one day. Considering all observed fire events with duration above 1h, the relative number of events steeply increases with classes of increasing fire danger and no fire activity was recorded in the class of low danger. Defined classes of fire danger provide useful information for wildfire management and are based on the Fire Risk Mapping product that is being disseminated on a daily basis by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis.

scholarly journals Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel M. Pinto ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
K. Feridun Turkman
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
Daily Energy

Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe aiming to improve state-of-the art modelling skills for classes of high fire danger. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological information by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a Daily Model based on a Generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated to daily probability estimated by the Daily Model. The model is calibrated using seven years of data (2010–2016) and validated against the period of January–August 2017. Results obtained show that about 80 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the Extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than the double of the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

scholarly journals Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 515-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel M. Pinto ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
K. Feridun Turkman
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
Daily Energy

Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016) and validated against the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the “extreme” class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

scholarly journals Development of Google Earth Engine Fire Weather Index Calculator for Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System

2021 ◽  
Vol 936 (1) ◽  
pp. 012040
Author(s):  
J S Matondang ◽  
H Sanjaya ◽  
R Arifandri
Keyword(s):  
Google Earth ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Google Earth Engine ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

Abstract Tropical peatlands make up almost ten percent of the land surface in Indonesia, making peat fires detrimental not only for global atmospheric carbon levels, but also to public health and socioeconomic activities in the region. Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) was developed based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS), using three different fuel codes and three indices representing fire behaviour. Daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) calculation is done by the Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) with data from its synoptic weather stations network. Distribution of such weather stations are sparse, therefore this paper reports on the development of Fire Weather Index calculator on Google Earth Engine, using high resolution weather data, provided by weather model and remote-sensing open datasets. The resulting application is capable of generating daily maps of FWI components to be used by the Indonesian Fire Danger Rating System.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 6291-6326
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
I. R. Urbieta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Understanding how fire-weather danger indices changed in the past, and detecting how changes affected forest fire activity is important in changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis datasets, ERA 40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest-fires statistical data from Greece and Spain to relate fire danger and fire activity. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA 40 (1960–1999) whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI and the number of high fire risk days shows an increasing trend which is significant at the 99% confidence level for South and East Europe. The cross-correlation calculated at national level in Greece and Spain between mean yearly area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order 0.5–0.6, and demonstrates the importance of the fire-season weather on forest fires. Our results show that, fire risk is multifaceted, and factors like changes in fire fighting capacity, ignition patterns, or landscapes might have played a role in forest fires trends. However, weather trends remain as important determinants of forest fires.

scholarly journals Proposal of an Iot Solution to Fire Risk Assessment Problem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bernardo ◽  
Pedro Silva ◽  
Paulo Fazendeiro
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Keywords Internet ◽  
The Common ◽  
Civic Awareness ◽  
Municipal Level

Several of the fighting weaknesses evidenced by the forest fires tragedies of the last years are rooted in the disconnection between the current technical/scientific resources and the availability of the resulting information to operational agents on the ground. In order to be effective, a pre-emptive response to similar disasters must include the articulation between local authorities at municipal level - in prevention, preparedness and initial response - and the common citizen who is on the field, resides there, and has a deeper knowledge about the field of operation. This work intends to take a first step in the development of a tool that can serve to improve the civic awareness of all and to support the decision-making of the competent authorities. Keywords: Internet of things, Citizen science, Fire weather index

scholarly journals Increased trends in global extreme fire weather driven predominantly by atmospheric humidity and temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽  
Sean Coogan ◽  
John Abatzoglou ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Global Analysis ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Humidity ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract Climate and weather greatly influence wildfire, and recent increases in wildfire activity have been linked to climate change. However, the atmospheric drivers of observed changes have not been articulated globally. We present a global analysis of trends in extreme fire weather from 1979–2020. Significant increases in extreme (95th percentile) annual values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI95), Initial Spread Index (ISI95), and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD95) occurred over 26.0%, 26.1%, and 46.1% of the global burnable landmass, respectively. Significant trends corresponded to a 35.8%, 36.0%, and 21.4% increase in mean global FWI95, ISI95, and VPD95, respectively. Relative humidity and temperature were identified as the drivers of significant trends in FWI95 and ISI95 in most regions, largely where temperature trends outpaced dew point trends. We identified relatively few regions in which wind speed or precipitation were drivers. These findings have wide-ranging implications for understanding fire risk in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1217-1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. de Jong ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
Karl Kitchen ◽  
Cathy Manley ◽  
Rob Gazzard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment. During periods of particularly fire-prone weather, wildfires can occur simultaneously across large areas, placing considerable stress upon the resources of fire and rescue services. Fire danger rating systems (FDRSs) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning and preparedness purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI), is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. The MOFSI currently provides daily operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian FWI System. However, it is known that the system has scope for improvement. Here we explore a climatology of the six FWI System components across the UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2km × 2km gridded numerical weather prediction data and supplemented by long-term meteorological station observations. We used this climatology to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System, optimised for UK conditions. We find this approach to be well justified, as the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation vary by more than an order of magnitude across the country. Therefore, a simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied in the MOFSI) may incur large errors of omission and commission with respect to the identification of periods of significantly elevated fire danger. We evaluate our approach to enhancing UK fire danger rating using records of wildfire occurrence and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and FWI components of the FWI System generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fire activity across Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile. When all wildfire events during the 2010–2012 period are considered, the 75th, 90th and 99th percentiles of at least one FWI component were exceeded during 85, 61 and 18 % of all wildfires respectively. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a percentile-based calibration approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe that our findings provide useful insights for future development of the current operational MOFSI UK FDRS.

scholarly journals Impact of More Frequent Observations on the Understanding of Tasmanian Fire Danger

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 1617-1626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Fox-Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Synoptic Observations ◽  
Climate Studies

AbstractHalf-hourly airport weather observations have been used to construct high-temporal-resolution datasets of McArthur Mark V forest fire danger index (FFDI) values for three locations in Tasmania, Australia, enabling a more complete understanding of the range and diurnal variability of fire weather. Such an understanding is important for fire management and planning to account for the possibility of weather-related fire flare ups—in particular, early in a day and during rapidly changing situations. In addition, climate studies have hitherto generally been able to access only daily or at best 3-hourly weather data to generate fire-weather index values. Comparison of FFDI values calculated from frequent (subhourly) observations with those derived from 3-hourly synoptic observations suggests that large numbers of significant fire-weather events are missed, even by a synoptic observation schedule, and, in particular, by observations made at 1500 LT only, suggesting that many climate studies may underestimate the frequencies of occurrence of fire-weather events. At Hobart, in southeastern Tasmania, only one-half of diurnal FFDI peaks over a critical warning level occur at 1500 LT, with the remainder occurring across a broad range of times. The study reinforces a perception of pronounced differences in the character of fire weather across Tasmania, with differences in diurnal patterns of variability evident between locations, in addition to well-known differences in the ranges of peak values observed.

Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Douglas J. McRae ◽  
Jizhong Jin ◽  
Lifu Shu ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

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