scholarly journals Fire history in the Araucaria araucana forests of Argentina: human and climate influences

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 194 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Mundo ◽  
T. Kitzberger ◽  
F. A. Roig Juñent ◽  
R. Villalba ◽  
M. D. Barrera
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Araucaria Araucana ◽  
Climate Influences

Little is known about drivers and trends of historic fire regimes in the Araucaria araucana forests of south-western Argentina. Fire history in these forests was reconstructed by the analysis of 246 fire-scarred partial cross-sections from this fire-resistant tree collected at 10 sites in Neuquén, northern Patagonia. Fire chronologies showed an increase in fire occurrence during the nineteenth century and a sharp decrease since the early twentieth century. The creation of Lanín National Park in 1937, the change in human activities, and the active suppression of wildfires led to a significant increase in mean fire intervals since 1930. In addition to these multidecadal to centennial scale drives of fire frequency, interannual variability in wildfire activity was associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Years of widespread fire are related to negative departures of both Niño 3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indexes (i.e. La Niña conditions), as well as coincident phases of positive Southern Annular Mode and La Niña events. Temporal variations in the Araucaria fire history in Argentina clearly show the combined effect of human and climate influences on fire regimes. A comparison with previous fire history studies in the Araucaria forests of Chile reveals substantial differences related to differences in human activities on both sides of the Andes and the earlier implementation of protected areas in Argentina.

Composite Analysis of the Effects of ENSO Events on Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1797-1808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee J. Welhouse ◽  
Matthew A. Lazzara ◽  
Linda M. Keller ◽  
Gregory J. Tripoli ◽  
Matthew H. Hitchman
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Previous investigations of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic climate have focused on regions that are impacted by both El Niño and La Niña, which favors analysis over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS). Here, 35 yr (1979–2013) of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data are analyzed to investigate the relationship between ENSO and Antarctica for each season using a compositing method that includes nine El Niño and nine La Niña periods. Composites of 2-m temperature (T2m), sea level pressure (SLP), 500-hPa geopotential height, sea surface temperatures (SST), and 300-hPa geopotential height anomalies were calculated separately for El Niño minus neutral and La Niña minus neutral conditions, to provide an analysis of features associated with each phase of ENSO. These anomaly patterns can differ in important ways from El Niño minus La Niña composites, which may be expected from the geographical shift in tropical deep convection and associated pattern of planetary wave propagation into the Southern Hemisphere. The primary new result is the robust signal, during La Niña, of cooling over East Antarctica. This cooling is found from December to August. The link between the southern annular mode (SAM) and this cooling is explored. Both El Niño and La Niña experience the weakest signal during austral autumn. The peak signal for La Niña occurs during austral summer, while El Niño is found to peak during austral spring.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

Spatial and temporal variations of fire regimes in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and Foothills of southern Alberta

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Pierre Rogeau ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Brad C. Hawkes ◽  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
Rick Arthur
Keyword(s):  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Ecological Integrity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Canadian Rocky Mountains ◽  
Southern Alberta ◽  
Fire Exclusion

Like many fire-adapted ecosystems, decades of fire exclusion policy in the Rocky Mountains and Foothills natural regions of southern Alberta, Canada are raising concern over the loss of ecological integrity. Departure from historical conditions is evaluated using median fire return intervals (MdFRI) based on fire history data from the Subalpine (SUB), Montane (MT) and Upper Foothills (UF) natural subregions. Fire severity, seasonality and cause are also documented. Pre-1948 MdFRI ranged between 65 and 85 years in SUB, between 26 and 35 years in MT and was 39 years in UF. The fire exclusion era resulted in a critical departure of 197–223% in MT (MdFRI = 84–104 years). The departure in UF was 170% (MdFRI = 104 years), while regions of continuous fuels in SUB were departed by 129% (MdFRI = 149 years). The most rugged region of SUB is within its historical range of variation with a departure of 42% (MdFRI = 121 years). More mixed-severity burning took place in MT and UF. SUB and MT are in a lightning shadow pointing to a predominance of anthropogenic burning. A summer fire season prevails in SUB, but occurs from spring to fall elsewhere. These findings will assist in developing fire and forest management policies and adaptive strategies in the future.

scholarly journals La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 4207-4225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kohyama ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The West ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals Analysis of GPS water vapor variability during the 2011 La Niña event over the western Pacific Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayan Suparta ◽  
Ahmad Iskandar ◽  
Mandeep Singh Jit Singh ◽  
Mohd. Alauddin Mohd. Ali ◽  
Baharudin Yatim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Western Pacific

<p>We analyzed the variability of global positioning system (GPS) water vapor during the 2011 La Niña events over the western Pacific Ocean. The precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from the UMSK (Malaysia) GPS station was investigated and compared with four other selected GPS stations: NTUS (Singapore), PIMO (Philippines), BAKO (Indonesia) and TOW2 (Australia). Analysis of the correlation between PWV and the sea-surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) on a weekly basis for the three La Niña cases of January–February–March, August–September–October, and October–November–December was used as an indicator of the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. A good relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa for the Niño 4 region, with correlation coefficients between -0.91 and -0.94, was observed for the August–September–October and October–November–December cases. During the 2011 La Niña events, the water vapor was seen to increase to about 8.39 mm for the October–November–December case, with decreases of about 4.20 mm for the remaining months, compared to the mean 2011 value. This implies that during these events, the precipitation in the western Pacific is increased, due to stronger easterly trade winds blowing along the eastern Pacific Ocean than along the western Pacific, and a mass of warm water moving westwards, thereby increasing the evaporation.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document