scholarly journals Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen J. King ◽  
Geoffrey J. Cary ◽  
A. Malcolm Gill ◽  
Andrew D. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Line Intensity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Grassland Fire ◽  
Initial Difference ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Grassland Types

Climate and fuel characteristics influence fire regimes, and both need to be realistically considered in bushfire projections. Previous south-eastern Australian studies have assumed maximum grassland fuel curing (100%) and average fuel load (4.5 t ha–1). This study is the first to include daily fuel curing and load dynamics, derived from the agricultural pasture growth model GRAZPLAN, in projections of Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) and potential fire-line intensity for future climate–CO2 combinations, and for alternate grasslands in the Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne regions. Climate-change projections were characterised by warmer, drier conditions, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations increasing for longer future timeframes. Projected shifts in GFDI and potential fire-line intensity arising from future climate–CO2 combinations were small compared with initial difference arising from using realistic GRAZPLAN-derived curing and fuel load values (compared with constant curing and fuel load) for grass dynamics, and this has important implications for the interpretation of earlier studies. Nevertheless, future grass curing and GFDI generally increased and fuel load generally decreased. The net effect on modelled future fire-line intensity was minimal because higher fire danger, and hence spread rate, was often largely compensated for by lower fuel load across the range of modelled grassland types and locations.

Australian grassland fire danger using inputs from the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 338 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Malcolm Gill ◽  
Karen J. King ◽  
Andrew D. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Perennial Grass ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Shoot Biomass ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Grass Model ◽  
Grassland Fire

Assessing and broadcasting the Fire Danger Rating each day of the fire season is an important activity in fire-prone nations. For grasslands in Australia, grass curing and biomass are biological variables that are not usually archived yet as inputs, along with weather data, to the calculation of Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) and potential fire intensity. To assess past changes in the index, the biological inputs for GFDI for Canberra in south-eastern Australia were obtained using a pasture simulator, GRAZPLAN. Shoot biomass (including leaf litter) and grass curing were modelled using three contrasting pasture models (exotic annual, exotic perennial and native perennial) in order to calculate two variants of McArthur’s GFDI Mark 4 (the original and a modified version which includes fuel load); values were either capped at 100 as in the original (the ‘worst possible’ condition) or left open-ended. GFDI, and the potential fire intensity for fires burning with the wind each afternoon during a 54-year period were calculated. The native perennial grass model gave contrasting results to those from the exotic perennial grass model, whereas the annual grass model usually was intermediate in behaviour. GRAZPLAN outputs allow not only retrospective examination, but also provide a basis for predicting potential fire danger and behaviour as a result of climate change.

Leaf flammability and fuel load increase under elevated CO2 levels in a model grassland

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Manea ◽  
Saskia Grootemaat ◽  
Michelle R. Leishman
Keyword(s):  
Elevated Co2 ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Plant Responses ◽  
P Availability ◽  
Soil P ◽  
Soil P Availability ◽  
Foliar N ◽  
Co2 Levels ◽  
Grassland Fire

Fire is a common process that shapes the structure of grasslands globally. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration may have a profound influence on grassland fire regimes. In this study, we asked (1) does CO2 and soil P availability alter leaf flammability (ignitibility and fire sustainability); (2) are leaf tissue chemistry traits drivers of leaf flammability, and are they modified by CO2 and soil P availability?; (3) does CO2 and soil P availability alter fuel load accumulation in grasslands; and (4) does CO2 and soil P availability alter the resprouting ability of grassland species? We found that leaf flammability increased under elevated CO2 levels owing to decreased leaf moisture content and foliar N, whereas fuel load accumulation increased owing to decreased foliar N (slower decomposition rates) and increased aboveground biomass production. These plant responses to elevated CO2 levels were not modified by soil P availability. The increase in leaf flammability and fuel load accumulation under elevated CO2 levels may alter grassland fire regimes by facilitating fire ignition as well as shorter fire intervals. However, the increased root biomass of grasses under elevated CO2 levels may enhance their resprouting capacity relative to woody plants, resulting in a shift in the vegetation structure of grasslands.

Soil arsenic toxicity differentially impacts C3 (barley) and C4 (maize) crops under future climate atmospheric CO2

2021 ◽  
Vol 414 ◽  
pp. 125331
Author(s):  
Hamada AbdElgawad ◽  
Sébastjen Schoenaers ◽  
Gaurav Zinta ◽  
Yasser M. Hassan ◽  
Mohamed Abdel-Mawgoud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Arsenic Toxicity ◽  
Soil Arsenic

scholarly journals Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3883-3910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Teckentrup ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Angelika Heil ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.

Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change

Ecography ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 606-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam M. Young ◽  
Philip E. Higuera ◽  
Paul A. Duffy ◽  
Feng Sheng Hu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Northern High Latitude

Mineral composition of durum wheat grain and pasta under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations

2018 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. 53-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romina Beleggia ◽  
Mariagiovanna Fragasso ◽  
Franco Miglietta ◽  
Luigi Cattivelli ◽  
Valeria Menga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Durum Wheat ◽  
Mineral Composition ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations
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