Evidence for the effect of homes on wildfire suppression costs

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia H. Gude ◽  
Kingsford Jones ◽  
Ray Rasker ◽  
Mark C. Greenwood
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Confounding Variables ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Wildfire Suppression ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Expected Increase

This paper uses wildfires in the Sierra Nevada area of California to estimate the relationship between housing and fire suppression costs. We investigated whether the presence of homes was associated with increased costs of firefighting after controlling for the effects of potential confounding variables including fire size, weather, terrain and human factors such as road access. This paper investigates wildfires in a way that other published studies have not; we analysed costs at the daily level, retaining information that would have been lost had we aggregated the data. We used linear mixed models to estimate the effects of homes on daily costs while incorporating within-fire variation. We conclude that the expected increase in the log daily cost with each unit increase in the log count of homes within 6 miles (~9.7 km) of an active fire is 0.07 (P = 0.005). The findings of this study are in agreement with most other previous empirical studies that have investigated the relationship between fire suppression costs and housing using cumulative fire costs and more generalised data on home locations. The study adds to mounting evidence that increases in housing lead to increases in fire suppression costs.

scholarly journals Drone Swarms in Fire Suppression Activities: A Conceptual Framework

Drones ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Elena Ausonio ◽  
Patrizia Bagnerini ◽  
Marco Ghio
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Water Flow Rate ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Mediterranean Scrub ◽  
In Fire

The recent huge technological development of unmanned aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can provide breakthrough means of fighting wildland fires. We propose an innovative forest firefighting system based on the use of a swarm of hundreds of UAVs able to generate a continuous flow of extinguishing liquid on the fire front, simulating the effect of rain. Automatic battery replacement and extinguishing liquid refill ensure the continuity of the action. We illustrate the validity of the approach in Mediterranean scrub first computing the critical water flow rate according to the main factors involved in the evolution of a fire, then estimating the number of linear meters of active fire front that can be extinguished depending on the number of drones available and the amount of extinguishing fluid carried. A fire propagation cellular automata model is also employed to study the evolution of the fire. Simulation results suggest that the proposed system can provide the flow of water required to fight low-intensity and limited extent fires or to support current forest firefighting techniques.

On the economic value of weather forecasts in wildfire suppression mobilization decisions

1988 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 1641-1649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara G. Brown ◽  
Allan H. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
National Forest ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
A Value ◽  
Wildfire Suppression ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Forecast Quality

Decision analysis is used to model the rational use and estimate the economic value of weather forecasts in a specific decision-making situation relating to wildfire suppression mobilization. In this situation two fires in a national forest that differ only in timber type and location may require fire-suppression assistance from an adjacent national forest, depending on the weather conditions. The assistance available in the adjacent national forest consists of one 20-man hand crew and one bulldozer. Decisions regarding whether to request assistance and whether and where to deploy these suppression resources are assumed to be made on the basis of weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are found to be useful in this context because they enable the fire manager to select in an optimal manner the fire at which the suppression resources are likely to be most beneficial on each occasion. Specifically, state of the art forecasts have an expected economic value of almost $61 00 in this situation, and perfect information would have a value of approximately $16 600. Sensitivity analysis reveals that these results are quite sensitive to variations in fire outcome (i.e., numbers of acres burned). Improvements in forecast quality would lead to substantial increases in the economic value of weather forecasts in this two-fire situation.

scholarly journals The effects of wildfire severity and pyrodiversity on bat occupancy and diversity in fire-suppressed forests

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. L. Steel ◽  
B. Campos ◽  
W. F. Frick ◽  
R. Burnett ◽  
H. D. Safford
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Habitat Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Burn Severity ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Occupancy Rates

AbstractWildfire is an important ecological process that influences species’ occurrence and biodiversity generally. Its effect on bats is understudied, creating challenges for habitat management and species conservation as threats to the taxa worsen globally and within fire-prone ecosystems. We conducted acoustic surveys of wildfire areas during 2014–2017 in conifer forests of California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains. We tested effects of burn severity and its variation, or pyrodiversity, on occupancy and diversity for the 17-species bat community while accounting for imperfect detection. Occupancy rates increased with severity for at least 6 species and with pyrodiversity for at least 3. Two other species responded negatively to pyrodiversity. Individual species models predicted maximum occupancy rates across burn severity levels but only one species occurred most often in undisturbed areas. Species richness increased from approximately 8 species in unburned forests to 11 in pyrodiverse areas with moderate- to high-severity. Greater accessibility of foraging habitats, as well as increased habitat heterogeneity may explain positive responses to wildfire. Many bat species appear well adapted to wildfire, while a century of fire suppression and forest densification likely reduced habitat quality for the community generally. Relative to other taxa, bats may be somewhat resilient to increases in fire severity and size; trends which are expected to continue with accelerating climate change.

scholarly journals Is fire severity increasing in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad T. Hanson ◽  
Dennis C. Odion
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Biological Effects ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Extent

Research in the Sierra Nevada range of California, USA, has provided conflicting results about current trends of high-severity fire. Previous studies have used only a portion of available fire severity data, or considered only a portion of the Sierra Nevada. Our goal was to investigate whether a trend in fire severity is occurring in Sierra Nevada conifer forests currently, using satellite imagery. We analysed all available fire severity data, 1984–2010, over the whole ecoregion and found no trend in proportion, area or patch size of high-severity fire. The rate of high-severity fire has been lower since 1984 than the estimated historical rate. Responses of fire behaviour to climate change and fire suppression may be more complex than assumed. A better understanding of spatiotemporal patterns in fire regimes is needed to predict future fire regimes and their biological effects. Mechanisms underlying the lack of an expected climate- and time since fire-related trend in high-severity fire need to be identified to help calibrate projections of future fire. The effects of climate change on high-severity fire extent may remain small compared with fire suppression. Management could shift from a focus on reducing extent or severity of fire in wildlands to protecting human communities from fire.

scholarly journals Calculation of Critical Water Flow Rates for Wildfire Suppression

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greg Penney ◽  
Daryoush Habibi ◽  
Marcus Cattani ◽  
Murray Carter
Keyword(s):  
Water Flow ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Water Suppression ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Forest Fuels ◽  
Fire Engineering ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Direct Head ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Wildfire Suppression

Predicting water suppression requirements and its impacts on firefighting strategies and logistics within the urban environment has been the subject of many previous studies, however the same level of research has yet to be applied in the realm of wildfire suppression. To work towards addressing this knowledge gap, this paper provides guidance for Incident Controllers in relation to critical water flow rates required to extinguish large wildfire across a wide range of forest fuel loads, fire weather and active fire front depths. This is achieved through mathematical empirical analysis of water flow rates required for head fire suppression during 540 simulated wildfires in forest vegetation. This research applies a fire engineering approach to wildfire suppression logistics and deterministically assess the suitability of appliance and aircraft based head fire suppression. The results highlight the limitations of offensive wildfire suppression involving direct head fire attacks by appliances once wildfires attain a quasi-steady state in forest fuels.

Spotting a liar by looking for microexpressions: Challenges and Opportunities

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xunbing Shen
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Deception Detection ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
High Stake ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Cues To Deception ◽  
The Relationship

Microexpressions do exist, and they are regarded as valid cues to deception by many researchers, furthermore, there is a lot of empirical evidence which substantiates this claim. However, some researchers don’t think the microexpression can be a way to catch a liar. The author elucidates the theories predicting that looking for microexpressions can be a way to catch a liar, and notes that some data can support for the utilization of microexpressions as a good way to detect deception. In addition, the author thinks that the mixed results in the area of investigating microexpressions and deception detection may be moderated by the stake. More empirical studies which employ high-stake lies to explore the relationship between microexpressions and deception detection are needed.

Humans and the Environment

2013 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Cultural Practice ◽  
Environmental Archaeology ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Way

The environment has always been a central concept for archaeologists and, although it has been conceived in many ways, its role in archaeological explanation has fluctuated from a mere backdrop to human action, to a primary factor in the understanding of society and social change. Archaeology also has a unique position as its base of interest places it temporally between geological and ethnographic timescales, spatially between global and local dimensions, and epistemologically between empirical studies of environmental change and more heuristic studies of cultural practice. Drawing on data from across the globe at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, this volume resituates the way in which archaeologists use and apply the concept of the environment. Each chapter critically explores the potential for archaeological data and practice to contribute to modern environmental issues, including problems of climate change and environmental degradation. Overall the volume covers four basic themes: archaeological approaches to the way in which both scientists and locals conceive of the relationship between humans and their environment, applied environmental archaeology, the archaeology of disaster, and new interdisciplinary directions.The volume will be of interest to students and established archaeologists, as well as practitioners from a range of applied disciplines.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

scholarly journals A Student’s Guide to the Classification and Operationalization of Variables in the Conceptualization and Design of a Clinical Study: Part 1

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chittaranjan Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Study ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Research Experience ◽  
Process Variables ◽  
Know How ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Confounding Variables ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
The Relationship

Students without prior research experience may not know how to conceptualize and design a study. This article explains how an understanding of the classification and operationalization of variables is the key to the process. Variables describe aspects of the sample that is under study; they are so called because they vary in value from subject to subject in the sample. Variables may be independent or dependent. Independent variables influence the value of other variables; dependent variables are influenced in value by other variables. A hypothesis states an expected relationship between variables. A significant relationship between an independent and dependent variable does not prove cause and effect; the relationship may partly or wholly be explained by one or more confounding variables. Variables need to be operationalized; that is, defined in a way that permits their accurate measurement. These and other concepts are explained with the help of clinically relevant examples.

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