Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 479 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Crystal A. Kolden
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire

Efforts to quantify relationships between climate and wildfire in Alaska have not yet explored the role of higher-frequency meteorological conditions on individual wildfire ignition and growth. To address this gap, meteorological data for 665 large fires that burned across the Alaskan interior between 1980 and 2007 were assessed to determine the respective influence of higher-frequency weather and lower-frequency climate, in terms of both antecedent and post-ignition conditions on fire growth. Antecedent climate exhibited no discernable influence on eventual fire size. In contrast, fire size was sensitive to weather in the days to weeks following ignition, particularly the post-ignition timing of precipitation. Prolonged periods of warm and dry conditions coincident with blocking that persists for several weeks after ignition enabled growth of large wildfires, whereas the return of wetting precipitation generally within a week after ignition inhibited growth of smaller wildfires. These results suggest that daily weather data are a critical predictor of fire growth and large fire potential and encourage their use in fire management and modelling.

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON FOREST FIRES OCCURRENCES IN LICHINGA DISTRICT, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE

FLORESTA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aires Afonso Mbanze ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Alexandre França Tetto ◽  
Henrique Soares Koehler ◽  
Jose Bernardo Manteiga
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Tukey Test ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe aim of this study was to assess the influence of meteorological conditions on the fire occurrences in forest stands of Lichinga district, in the period from 2010 to 2012. Data about fire occurrences records of the district of Lichinga and two others close districts (Lago and Sanga) were provided by the Center for Monitoring and Control of Forest Fires (CCMIF) of the company Chikweti. Daily weather data: temperature, rainfall and relative humidity of the same period, recorded at 13:00 PM, by the meteorological station of the Institute of Agronomic Research of Mozambique (IIAM) in Lichinga district were also provided to this work. Meteorological data were submitted to regression analysis and Tukey test. The results showed a significant variation in temperature and humidity on both tests. The overlapping of fire occurrences and meteorological variables, suggested a great influence of the meteorological conditions in the occurrence of fires, mainly due to the very long dry periods. In 2010 there was a delay in the occurrence of fires; this was related to the rainy season which was slightly longer. September and October was the months that recorded the highest number of fire occurrences throughout the studied period.ResumoInfluência das condições meteorológicas na ocorrência dos incêndios florestais no distrito de Lichinga, norte de Moçambique. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a influência das variáveis meteorológicas na ocorrência de incêndios em povoamentos florestais no distrito de Lichinga, no período de 2010 a 2012. Para tal, foram analisados os registros de ocorrências de incêndios do distrito de Lichinga e de outros dois distritos vizinhos (Lago e Sanga), disponibilizados pelo Centro de Controle e Monitoramento de Incêndios Florestais (CCMIF) da empresa Chikweti Forest of Niassa, e dados meteorológicos diários de temperatura (máxima e mínima), precipitação e umidade relativa, do mesmo período, registrados às 13 horas, pela estação meteorológica do Instituto de Investigação Agronômica de Moçambique em Lichinga (IIAM-Lichinga). Os dados meteorológicos foram submetidos ao teste de análise de regressão e ao teste de Tukey, tendo sido observado uma variação significativa da temperatura e umidade em ambos os testes. A sobreposição das ocorrências dos incêndios com as variáveis meteorológicas demostrou uma grande influênca dessas variáveis na ocorrência dos incêndios, principalmente devido aos períodos secos prolongados. No ano 2010 observou-se um atraso na ocorrência dos incêndios, devido ao período chuvoso que foi ligeiramente mais longo. Os meses que registraram maior número de ocorrências em todo o período foram setembro e outubro.Palavras-chave: Povoamentos florestais; variáveis meteorológicas; prevenção de incêndios florestais.

scholarly journals The Role of Previous Fires in the Management and Expenditures of Subsequent Large Wildfires

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin J Belval ◽  
Christopher D O’Connor ◽  
Matthew P Thompson ◽  
Michael S Hand
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Percent Area

Previously burned areas can influence the occurrence, extent, and severity of subsequent wildfires, which may influence expenditures on large fires. We develop a conceptual model of how interactions of fires with previously burned areas may influence fire management, fire behavior, expenditures, and test hypotheses using regression models of wildfire size and suppression expenditures. Using a sample of 722 large fires from the western United States, we observe whether a fire interacted with a previous fire, the percent area of fires burned by previous fires, and the percent perimeter overlap with previous fires. Fires that interact with previous fires are likely to be larger and have lower total expenditures on average. Conditional on a fire encountering a previous fire, a greater extent of interaction with previous fires is associated with reduced fire size but higher expenditures, although the expenditure effect is small and imprecisely estimated. Subsequent analysis suggests that fires that interact with previous fires may be systematically different from other fires along several dimensions. We do not find evidence that interactions with previous fires reduce suppression expenditures for subsequent fires. Results suggest that previous fires may allow suppression opportunities that otherwise might not exist, possibly reducing fire size but increasing total expenditures.

Fire Growth and Acceleration

1997 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
NP Cheney ◽  
JS Gould
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium State ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Acceleration Phase ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Steady Rate ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Practical Implications

The use of the terms "growth" and "acceleration" appears to be inconsistent in the literature and we believe this inconsistency has hindered our understanding of behaviour in the early stages of a fire. The development of a fire from a point ignition to some equilibrium state and the associated increase in fire size and intensity has been referred to variously as the fire growth (Pyne 1984); build-up (Luke and McArthur 1978); or acceleration (Chandler et al. 1983) phase of the fire. More specifically the "acceleration phase" has been used to describe the increase in rate of spread from ignition to a quasi-steady rate of spread (Luke and McArthur 1978, McAlpine and Wakimoto 1991). Characteristic curves showing the increase in rate of spread are illustrated for different fuel and weather conditions (Luke and McArthur 1978). Hypothetical models to describe these curves have been proposed by Cheney and Bary (1969), Van Wagner (unpublished) and McAlpine and Wakimoto (1991). They have been called acceleration curves and acceleration models. The terms growth and acceleration, however, represent different concepts that are not interchangeable. We would like to clarify these concepts and discuss the practical implications for fire managers.

A computational method for optimising fuel treatment locations

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Finney
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Time Algorithm ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Random Patterns ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Weather Scenario

Modelling and experiments have suggested that spatial fuel treatment patterns can influence the movement of large fires. On simple theoretical landscapes consisting of two fuel types (treated and untreated), optimal patterns can be analytically derived that disrupt fire growth efficiently (i.e. with less area treated than random patterns). Although conceptually simple, the application of these theories to actual landscapes is made difficult by heterogeneity (fuels, weather, and topography). Here a computational method is described for heterogeneous landscapes that identifies efficient fuel treatment units and patterns for a selected fire weather scenario. The method requires input of two sets of spatial input data: (1) the current fuel conditions; and (2) the potential fuel conditions after a treatment is conducted (if treatment is permitted in a particular location). The contrast in fire spread rate between the two landscapes under the weather scenario conditions indicates where treatments are effective at delaying the growth of fires. Fire growth from the upwind edge of the landscape is then computed using a minimum travel time algorithm. This identifies major fire travel routes (areas needing treatment) and their intersections with the areas where treatments occurred and reduced the spread rate (opportunity for treatment). These zones of treatment ‘need and opportunity’ are iteratively delineated by contiguous patches of raster cells up to a user-supplied constraint on percentage of land area to be treated. This algorithm is demonstrated for simple and for complex landscapes.

Comment—A re-examination of the effects of fire suppression in the boreal forest

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 1462-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Miyanishi ◽  
E A Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire

A report by Ward and Tithecott (P.C. Ward and A.G. Tithecott. 1993. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Aviation, Flood and Fire Management Branch, Publ. 305.) is frequently cited in the literature as providing evidence of the effects of fire suppression on the boreal forest. The study is based on 15 years of fire data and stand age data from Ontario, Canada. A re-examination of this report reveals serious flaws that invalidate the conclusions regarding effects of fire suppression on fire size and fire frequency. The fire-size data from the unprotected zone are censored in the small size classes because of detection resolution, invalidating comparisons of shapes of the distributions between the protected and unprotected zones. Use of different plotting scales gives the false appearance of large differences in the number of large fires between the two zones. Stand age data are used to show a change in fire frequency in the 20th century, and this change is attributed to fire suppression. However, no evidence is presented to conclude that this change in fire frequency is attributable to fire suppression and not to climate change. The estimate of the current fire cycle is based on too short a record to give a reliable estimate given the variation in annual area burned. Therefore, this report does not present sound evidence of fire suppression effects and should not be cited as such.

scholarly journals Distribution and incidence of viruses in Irish seed potato crops

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hutton ◽  
J.H. Spink ◽  
D. Griffin ◽  
S. Kildea ◽  
D. Bonner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potato Virus ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Potato Production ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Potato Seed ◽  
Virus Diseases ◽  
Aphid Control ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Potato Crops

Abstract Virus diseases are of key importance in potato production and in particular for the production of disease-free potato seed. However, there is little known about the frequency and distribution of potato virus diseases in Ireland. Despite a large number of samples being tested each year, the data has never been collated either within or across years. Information from all known potato virus testing carried out in the years 2006–2012 by the Department of Agriculture Food and Marine was collated to give an indication of the distribution and incidence of potato virus in Ireland. It was found that there was significant variation between regions, varieties, years and seed classes. A definition of daily weather data suitable for aphid flight was developed, which accounted for a significant proportion of the variation in virus incidence between years. This use of weather data to predict virus risk could be developed to form the basis of an integrated pest management approach for aphid control in Irish potato crops.

scholarly journals Utilising Open Geospatial Data to Refine Weather Variables for Building Energy Performance Evaluation—Incident Solar Radiation and Wind-Driven Infiltration Modelling

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 802
Author(s):  
Kristian Skeie ◽  
Arild Gustavsen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Web Service ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Geospatial Data ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Building Site ◽  
Incident Solar Radiation

In building thermal energy characterisation, the relevance of proper modelling of the effects caused by solar radiation, temperature and wind is seen as a critical factor. Open geospatial datasets are growing in diversity, easing access to meteorological data and other relevant information that can be used for building energy modelling. However, the application of geospatial techniques combining multiple open datasets is not yet common in the often scripted workflows of data-driven building thermal performance characterisation. We present a method for processing time-series from climate reanalysis and satellite-derived solar irradiance services, by implementing land-use, and elevation raster maps served in an elevation profile web-service. The article describes a methodology to: (1) adapt gridded weather data to four case-building sites in Europe; (2) calculate the incident solar radiation on the building facades; (3) estimate wind and temperature-dependent infiltration using a single-zone infiltration model and (4) including separating and evaluating the sheltering effect of buildings and trees in the vicinity, based on building footprints. Calculations of solar radiation, surface wind and air infiltration potential are done using validated models published in the scientific literature. We found that using scripting tools to automate geoprocessing tasks is widespread, and implementing such techniques in conjunction with an elevation profile web service made it possible to utilise information from open geospatial data surrounding a building site effectively. We expect that the modelling approach could be further improved, including diffuse-shading methods and evaluating other wind shelter methods for urban settings.

scholarly journals A method for simulating risk profiles of wheat yield in data-sparse conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
G. Bracho-Mujica ◽  
P.T. Hayman ◽  
V.O. Sadras ◽  
B. Ostendorf
Keyword(s):  
Reference Site ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
Record Length ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Study Sites

Abstract Process-based crop models are a robust approach to assess climate impacts on crop productivity and long-term viability of cropping systems. However, these models require high-quality climate data that cannot always be met. To overcome this issue, the current research tested a simple method for scaling daily data and extrapolating long-term risk profiles of modelled crop yields. An extreme situation was tested, in which high-quality weather data was only available at one single location (reference site: Snowtown, South Australia, 33.78°S, 138.21°E), and limited weather data was available for 49 study sites within the Australian grain belt (spanning from 26.67 to 38.02°S of latitude, and 115.44 to 151.85°E of longitude). Daily weather data were perturbed with a delta factor calculated as the difference between averaged climate data from the reference site and the study sites. Risk profiles were built using a step-wise combination of adjustments from the most simple (adjusted series of precipitation only) to the most detailed (adjusted series of precipitation, temperatures and solar radiation), and a variable record length (from 10 to 100 years). The simplest adjustment and shortest record length produced bias of modelled yield grain risk profiles between −10 and 10% in 41% of the sites, which increased to 86% of the study sites with the most detailed adjustment and longest record (100 years). Results indicate that the quality of the extrapolation of risk profiles was more sensitive to the number of adjustments applied rather than the record length per se.

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2442
Author(s):  
Daniel Samano ◽  
Shubhayu Saha ◽  
Taylor Corbin Kot ◽  
JoNell E. Potter ◽  
Lunthita M. Duthely
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

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