Potentially limited detectability of short-term changes in boreal fire regimes: a simulation study

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juha M. Metsaranta
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Null Model ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Boreal Plains ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Climate change is expected to increase area burned in the boreal plains ecozone of Canada in the early 21st century (2001–50). I examined the influence of inter-annual variability in area burned and short observed time series on the probability of detecting if an increase has occurred, using a null model of present and future fire regimes. A wide range of fire cycles are consistent with annual area burned in the late 20th century (1959–99). Fire cycles estimated from the reciprocal of the average annual burn fraction over a 50-year period are not very precise, and overestimate the fire cycle if years with large annual area burned have not recently occurred. Under the default assumptions, the probability of detecting a doubling of annual area burned during 2001–50 is 73% if it occurred instantaneously, but only 31% if it occurred gradually. Imprecise estimates and uncertainty in the ability to detect changes in fire cycles poses challenges for implementing aspects of sustainable forest management. Alternate empirical or model-based statistics, such as return periods for annual areas burned of a given magnitude, may be useful for inferring frequencies and magnitudes of large fire years that have not yet been observed.

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

scholarly journals Timing of fire relative to seed development controls availability of non-serotinous aerial seed banks

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 16705-16751 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Michaletz ◽  
E. A. Johnson ◽  
W. E. Mell ◽  
D. F. Greene
Keyword(s):  
Seed Development ◽  
Picea Glauca ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Seed Banks ◽  
Conduction Model ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Germinable Seed

Abstract. The existence of non-serotinous, non-sprouting species in fire regimes where serotiny confers an adaptive advantage is puzzling, particularly when these species recruit poorly from soil seed banks or from burn edges. In this paper, white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) was used to show that the timing of fire relative to seed development can control aerial seed bank availability for non-serotinous species. To estimate seed survival in closed cones during crown fires, cone heating was simulated using a one-dimensional conduction model implemented in a computational fluid dynamics (Navier–Stokes) fire spread model. To quantify the area burned when germinable seed would be contained in closed cones, empirical fire occurrence and seed development (germinability and cone opening) data were compared for multiple locations across the white spruce range. Approximately 12% of cones contained viable seed following crown fire simulations (0.072 m s−1 mean spread rate; 9147 kW m−1 mean intensity), and roughly half of the historical area burned resulted from fires that occurred when closed cones would contain germinable seed. Post-fire recruitment from in situ aerial seed banks can occur for non-serotinous species, and may be an important cause of their existence in fire regimes to which they otherwise seem poorly suited.

Mixed-severity fire regimes: How well are they represented by existing fire-regime classification systems?

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 658-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène M. Marcoux ◽  
Sarah E. Gergel ◽  
Lori D. Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Classification Systems ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Natural Fire ◽  
In Fire

Maps depicting historic fire regimes provide critical baselines for sustainable forest management and wildfire risk assessments. However, given our poor understanding of mixed-severity fire regimes, we asked if there may be considerable errors in fire-regime classification systems used to create landscape-level maps. We used dendrochronological field data (fire scars and tree establishment dates) from 20 randomly selected sites in southern British Columbia to evaluate two classification systems (Natural Disturbance Type (NDT) and Historical Natural Fire Regime (HNFR)) used by managers to map fire regimes. We found evidence of mixed-severity fires at 55% of sites. Each classification system made considerable and contrasting errors predicting mixed-severity regimes (relative to field data), and the discrepancies varied with elevation. The NDT system underrepresented low-to-moderate-severity fires at lower elevations, whereas the HNFR system overpredicted their occurrence at higher elevations. Errors are attributed to underlying assumptions about disturbances in the two classification systems, as well as limitations of the research methods used to estimate fire frequency in mixed-severity regimes (i.e., methods more relevant to high- versus low-severity regimes). Ecological heterogeneity created by mixed-severity regimes potentially influences decisions related to conservation, silviculture, wildfire, and fuel mitigation. Thus, understanding underlying assumptions and errors in mapping fire regimes is critical.

scholarly journals Timing of fire relative to seed development may enable non-serotinous species to recolonize from the aerial seed banks of fire-killed trees

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 5061-5078 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Michaletz ◽  
E. A. Johnson ◽  
W. E. Mell ◽  
D. F. Greene
Keyword(s):  
Seed Development ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Seed Banks ◽  
Conduction Model ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Germinable Seed

Abstract. The existence of non-serotinous, non-sprouting species in fire regimes where serotiny confers an adaptive advantage is puzzling, particularly when these species recruit poorly from soil seed banks or from burn edges. In this paper, white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) was used to show how the timing of fire relative to seed development may permit non-serotinous species to recolonize burned areas from the aerial seed banks of fire-killed trees. To estimate survival of seeds within closed cones during crown fires, cone heating was simulated using a one-dimensional conduction model implemented in a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model. To quantify the area burned when germinable seed would be contained within closed cones during a mast year, empirical fire occurrence and seed development (germinability and cone opening) data were compared for multiple locations across the white spruce range. Approximately 12% of cones contained viable seed following crown fire simulations (0.072 m s−1 mean spread rate; 9147 kW m−1 mean intensity), and roughly half of the historical area burned resulted from fires that occurred when closed cones would contain germinable seed. Together, these results suggest that non-serotinous species may recolonize burned areas from in situ aerial seed banks, and that this may be an important cause of their existence in fire regimes to which they otherwise seem poorly suited.

Natural fire frequency for the eastern Canadian boreal forest: consequences for sustainable forestry

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 384-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Victor Kafka ◽  
Patrick Lefort ◽  
Daniel Lesieur
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Clear Cutting ◽  
In Fire

Given that fire is the most important disturbance of the boreal forest, climatically induced changes in fire frequency (i.e., area burnt per year) can have important consequences on the resulting forest mosaic age-class distribution and composition. Using archives and dendroecological data we reconstructed the fire frequency in four large sectors along a transect from eastern Ontario to central Quebec. Results showed a dramatic decrease in fire frequency that began in the mid-19th century and has been accentuated during the 20th century. Although all areas showed a similar temporal decrease in area burned, we observed a gradual increase in fire frequency from the west to Abitibi east, followed by a slight decrease in central Quebec. The global warming that has been occurring since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850) may have created a climate less prone to large forest fires in the eastern boreal forest of North America. This interpretation is corroborated by predictions of a decrease in forest fires for that region of the boreal forest in the future. A longer fire cycle (i.e., the time needed to burn an area equivalent to the study area) has important consequences for sustainable forest management of the boreal forest of eastern Canada. When considering the important proportion of overmature and old-growth stands in the landscape resulting from the elongation of the fire cycles, it becomes difficult to justify clear-cutting practices over all the entire area as well as short rotations as a means to emulate natural disturbances. Alternative practices involving the uses of variable proportion of clear, partial, and selective cutting are discussed.

Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelene C. Hanes ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
John M. Little ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire

Contemporary fire regimes of Canadian forests have been well documented based on forest fire records between the late 1950s to 1990s. Due to known limitations of fire datasets, an analysis of changes in fire-regime characteristics could not be easily undertaken. This paper presents fire-regime trends nationally and within two zonation systems, the homogeneous fire-regime zones and ecozones, for two time periods, 1959–2015 and 1980–2015. Nationally, trends in both area burned and number of large fires (≥200 ha) have increased significantly since 1959, which might be due to increases in lightning-caused fires. Human-caused fires, in contrast, have shown a decline. Results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later. At the regional level, trends in fire regimes are variable across the country, with fewer significant trends. Area burned, number of large fires, and lightning-caused fires are increasing in most of western Canada, whereas human-caused fires are either stable or declining throughout the country. Overall, Canadian forests appear to have been engaged in a trajectory towards more active fire regimes over the last half century.

An overview of mountain meteorological effects relevant to fire behaviour and bushfire risk

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason J. Sharples
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Rugged Terrain ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Meteorological Effects

Many of the processes that can occur in mountainous landscapes have the potential to significantly affect fire behaviour and bushfire risk in general. These processes can lead to otherwise unexpected fire behaviour and escalation in fire size and severity that could endanger firefighting crews and compromise suppression activities. Interaction of upper winds with rugged terrain can often result in highly variable and turbulent wind patterns and variations in temperature and humidity that can affect fire regimes in the long and short term. More generally, the effect of rugged terrain on atmospheric flows can give rise to complex dynamics and emergent properties that are discontinuous in nature. Hence, the ‘fire weather continuum’ that is often assumed in fire management practices is of reduced validity in mountainous or hilly landscapes. This paper presents an overview of the main elements of mountain meteorology relevant to fire weather and discusses the potential roles they may play in bushfire behaviour, development and risk. As such, the paper is intended to promote understanding, across the wide range of professions concerned with bushfire, of how mountain meteorological effects might contribute to fire potential and fire behaviour.

scholarly journals Invasive grasses increase fire occurrence and frequency across US ecoregions

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (47) ◽  
pp. 23594-23599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily J. Fusco ◽  
John T. Finn ◽  
Jennifer K. Balch ◽  
R. Chelsea Nagy ◽  
Bethany A. Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Grass Species ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Invasive Grass ◽  
Pennisetum Ciliare ◽  
Fire Cycle ◽  
Invasive Grasses ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Grass Invasion

Fire-prone invasive grasses create novel ecosystem threats by increasing fine-fuel loads and continuity, which can alter fire regimes. While the existence of an invasive grass-fire cycle is well known, evidence of altered fire regimes is typically based on local-scale studies or expert knowledge. Here, we quantify the effects of 12 nonnative, invasive grasses on fire occurrence, size, and frequency across 29 US ecoregions encompassing more than one third of the conterminous United States. These 12 grass species promote fire locally and have extensive spatial records of abundant infestations. We combined agency and satellite fire data with records of abundant grass invasion to test for differences in fire regimes between invaded and nearby “uninvaded” habitat. Additionally, we assessed whether invasive grass presence is a significant predictor of altered fire by modeling fire occurrence, size, and frequency as a function of grass invasion, in addition to anthropogenic and ecological covariates relevant to fire. Eight species showed significantly higher fire-occurrence rates, which more than tripled for Schismus barbatus and Pennisetum ciliare. Six species demonstrated significantly higher mean fire frequency, which more than doubled for Neyraudia reynaudiana and Pennisetum ciliare. Grass invasion was significant in fire occurrence and frequency models, but not in fire-size models. The significant differences in fire regimes, coupled with the importance of grass invasion in modeling these differences, suggest that invasive grasses alter US fire regimes at regional scales. As concern about US wildfires grows, accounting for fire-promoting invasive grasses will be imperative for effectively managing ecosystems.

Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy E. Hessl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
In Fire

Fire is a global process affecting both the biosphere and the atmosphere. As a result, measuring rates of change in wildland fire and understanding the mechanisms responsible for such changes are important research goals. A large body of modeling studies projects increases in wildfire activity in future decades, but few empirical studies have documented change in modern fire regimes. Identifying generalizable pathways through which climate change may alter fire regimes is a critical next step for understanding, measuring, and modeling fire under a changing climate. In this progress report, I review recent model-, empirical-, and fire history-based studies of fire and climate change and propose three pathways along which fire regimes might respond to climate change: changes in fuel condition, fuel volume, and ignitions. Model- and empirical-based studies have largely focused on changes in fuel condition with some models projecting up to 50% increases in area burned under a 2 x CO2 climate. Fire history data derived from tree-rings, sediment charcoal, and soil charcoal have helped identify past trajectories of change in fire regimes and can point to possible future conditions. However, most fire history research has focused on changes in area burned and fire frequency. Changes in fire severity may be equally important for the earth system and require further attention. Critical research needs include next generation dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) that consider changes in vegetation alongside changes in human activities and long fire history records from a variety of vegetation types suitable for validating these DGVMs.

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