scholarly journals Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Dominic Cyr ◽  
Martin P. Girardin ◽  
Christopher Carcaillet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Clear Cutting ◽  
Canadian Boreal Forest

Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity of managed ecosystems. Because of their climate determinism, forest fires are likely to have consequences that could exacerbate biophysical and socioeconomical vulnerabilities in the context of climate change. We evaluated future trends in fire activity under climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest and investigated whether these changes were included in the variability observed during the last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records from three lakes. Prediction of future annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected from an ensemble of 19 global climate model experiments. The increase in burn rate that is predicted for the end of the 21st century (0.45% year–1 with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well within the long‐term past variability (0.37 to 0.90% year–1). Although our results suggest that the predicted change in burn rates per se will not move this ecosystem to new conditions, the effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with current rates of clear‐cutting or other low‐retention types of harvesting, which still prevail in this region, remain preoccupying.

Future emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 383-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.D. Amiro ◽  
A. Cantin ◽  
M.D. Flannigan ◽  
W.J. de Groot
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Canadian Boreal Forest ◽  
Almost All

New estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian forest fires were calculated based on a revised model for fuel consumption, using both the fire fuel load and the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. This model was applied to future climate scenarios of 2×CO2 and 3×CO2 environments using the Canadian Global Climate Model. Total forest floor fuel consumption for six boreal ecozones was estimated at 60, 80, and 117 Tg dry biomass for the 1×CO2, 2×CO2, and 3×CO2 scenarios, respectively. These ecozones cover the boreal and taiga regions and account for about 86% of the total fire consumption for Canada. Almost all of the increase in fuel consumption for future climates is caused by an increase in the area burned. The effect of more severe fuel consumption density (kilograms of fuel consumed per square metre) is relatively small, ranging from 0% to 18%, depending on the ecozone. The emissions of greenhouse gases from all Canadian fires are estimated to increase from about 162 Tg·year–1 of CO2 equivalent in the 1×CO2 scenario to 313 Tg·year–1 of CO2 equivalent in the 3×CO2 scenario, including contributions from CO2, CH4, and N2O.

scholarly journals Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5863-5874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Asadieh ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Streamflow Extremes

Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Analysis and Projection of Flood Hazards over China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulian Liang ◽  
Yongli Wang ◽  
Yinjun Zhao ◽  
Yuan Lu ◽  
Xiaoying Liu
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Floods have been experienced with greater frequency and more severity under global climate change. To understand the flood hazard and its variation in the future, the current and future flood hazards in the 21st century in China are discussed. Floods and their trends are assessed using the accumulation precipitation during heavy rainfall process (AP_HRP), which are calculated based on historical meteorological observations and the outputs of a global climate model (GCM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The flood-causing HRPs counted by the flood-causing critical precipitation (the 60% fractile of AP_HRP) capture more than 70% of historical flood events. The projection results indicate that the flood hazards could increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and increase slightly under RCP2.6 during the 21st century (2011–2099). The spatial characteristics of flood hazards and their increasing trends under the three RCPs are similar in most areas of China. More floods could occur in southern China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi and Fujian provinces, which could become more serious in southeastern China and the northern Yunnan province. Construction of water conservancy projects, reservoir dredging, improvement of drainage and irrigation equipment and enhancement of flood control and storage capacity can mitigate the impacts of floods and waterlogging on agriculture.

scholarly journals Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1429-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Trail ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
K. Tsigaridis ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1617-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Olaf Burghoff ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garijo ◽  
Luis Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

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