Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiganoush K. Preisler ◽  
Anthony L. Westerling ◽  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
Francisco Munoz-Arriola ◽  
Thomas P. Holmes
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Spatial Representation ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Federal Land ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Federal Land Management

In the last decade, increases in fire activity and suppression expenditures have caused budgetary problems for federal land management agencies. Spatial forecasts of upcoming fire activity and costs have the potential to help reduce expenditures, and increase the efficiency of suppression efforts, by enabling them to focus resources where they have the greatest effect. In this paper, we present statistical models for estimating 1–6 months ahead spatially explicit forecasts of expected numbers, locations and costs of large fires on a 0.125° grid with vegetation, topography and hydroclimate data used as predictors. As an example, forecasts for California Federal and State protection responsibility are produced for historic dates and compared with recorded fire occurrence and cost data. The results seem promising in that the spatially explicit forecasts of large fire probabilities seem to match the actual occurrence of large fires, with the exception of years with widespread lightning events, which remain elusive. Forecasts of suppression expenditures did seem to differentiate between low- and high-cost fire years. Maps of forecast levels of expenditures provide managers with a spatial representation of where costly fires are most likely to occur. Additionally, the statistical models provide scientists with a tool for evaluating the skill of spatially explicit fire risk products.

scholarly journals Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 749-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Praveen Noojipady ◽  
Douglas C. Morton ◽  
Wilfrid Schroeder ◽  
Kimberly M. Carlson ◽  
Chengquan Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Forest Loss ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
In Fire ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero deforestation.

scholarly journals Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2649 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Matt Davies ◽  
Colin J. Legg
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Management ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mahalanobis Distances ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Effects of drought on wildfires in forest landscapes of the Western Ghats, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narendran Kodandapani ◽  
Sean A. Parks
Keyword(s):  
Western Ghats ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Western Ghats

Wildland fire is an understudied yet highly important disturbance agent on the Indian subcontinent. In particular, there is uncertainty regarding the degree to which annual climate variation influences inter-annual variability in fire activity. In this study, we evaluate wildland fire at two complementary spatial scales in the southern portion of the Western Ghats mountain range (hereafter ‘Western Ghats’) in India. At the larger regional scale, we evaluate temporal and spatial variability in fire activity from 2001 to 2015. At the smaller scale, we evaluate the relationship between annual area burned and climate variation within two landscapes nested within the Western Ghats (from c. 1996 to 2015). At the regional scale, we found that most fire activity was restricted to January–March, although substantial inter-annual variation was evident. For example, in 2004, 2009 and 2012, fire activity was approximately five times greater compared with the 3 years with the lowest fire activity. The landscape-scale analysis also revealed weak to strong correlations between annual area burned and climate variation in both landscapes. Although not the only factor influencing area burned, episodes of drought could be exerting an increasingly significant effect on wildfire activity in the Western Ghats.

scholarly journals Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Praveen Noojipady ◽  
Douglas C. Morton ◽  
Wilfrid Schroeder ◽  
Kimberly M. Carlson ◽  
Chengquan Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Forest Loss ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation in and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one quarter of total forest losses in both certified and non-certified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined in certified plantations but did stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 6 % of forest loss in certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño event was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, non-certified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, rates of fire activity were 57 % and 44 % lower in certified plantations than non-certified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests and support legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero deforestation.

scholarly journals Temporal variations and change of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 6291-6326
Author(s):  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
N. Korhonen ◽  
N. Koutsias ◽  
F. Xystrakis ◽  
I. R. Urbieta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Understanding how fire-weather danger indices changed in the past, and detecting how changes affected forest fire activity is important in changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis datasets, ERA 40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest-fires statistical data from Greece and Spain to relate fire danger and fire activity. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA 40 (1960–1999) whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI and the number of high fire risk days shows an increasing trend which is significant at the 99% confidence level for South and East Europe. The cross-correlation calculated at national level in Greece and Spain between mean yearly area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order 0.5–0.6, and demonstrates the importance of the fire-season weather on forest fires. Our results show that, fire risk is multifaceted, and factors like changes in fire fighting capacity, ignition patterns, or landscapes might have played a role in forest fires trends. However, weather trends remain as important determinants of forest fires.

scholarly journals The Use of Citizen Science to Achieve Multivariate Management Goals on Public Lands

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 293
Author(s):  
Sara Souther ◽  
Vincent Randall ◽  
Nanebah Lyndon
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Ecological Integrity ◽  
Public Land ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Science Data ◽  
Public Land Management ◽  
Federal Land ◽  
Botanical Research ◽  
Federal Land Management

Federal land management agencies in the US are tasked with maintaining the ecological integrity of over 2 million km2 of land for myriad public uses. Citizen science, operating at the nexus of science, education, and outreach, offers unique benefits to address socio-ecological questions and problems, and thus may offer novel opportunities to support the complex mission of public land managers. Here, we use a case study of an iNaturalist program, the Tribal Nations Botanical Research Collaborative (TNBRC), to examine the use of citizen science programs in public land management. The TNBRC collected 2030 observations of 34 plant species across the project area, while offering learning opportunities for participants. Using occurrence data, we examined observational trends through time and identified five species with 50 or fewer digital observations to investigate as species of possible conservation concern. We compared predictive outcomes of habitat suitability models built using citizen science data and Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Models exhibited high agreement, identifying the same underlying predictors of species occurrence and, 95% of the time, identifying the same pixels as suitable habitat. Actions such as staff training on data use and interpretation could enhance integration of citizen science in Federal land management.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

The Human Reliability Analysis in Fire PSA Using Spar-H Method

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Study Results ◽  
In Fire

According to existing research results, fire risk makes a significant contribution to the total risk of a nuclear power plant (NPP). So fire probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for NPPs is becoming more and more important in recent years. How to perform human reliability analysis (HRA) which is an essential part of PSA is therefore being paid more and more attention in fire PSA. This paper describes the characteristics and special considerations of HRA in fire PSA, and demonstrates in fire PSA how to use SPAR-H method which is so-called an advanced second-generation HRA method and is being widely used in PSA for Chinese NPPs. The study results can be a reference for other HRA analysts to use SPAR-H method in fire PSA models or other PSA models in Chinese NPPs or the world-wide nuclear industry.

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