Optimal management of Pinus pinaster in Galicia (Spain) under risk of fire

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 937 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Pasalodos-Tato ◽  
Timo Pukkala ◽  
Alberto Rojo Alboreca
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Pinus Pinaster ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Rotation Length ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Soil Expectation Value ◽  
Growth And Yield Models

Pinus pinaster is the most important conifer in Galicia in terms of volume and production, occurs mainly in plantations. Forest fires are the main threat to forest plantations, affecting optimal stand management. The aim of this study was to develop management prescriptions for P. pinaster based on growth and yield models and optimisations. The objective function was soil expectation value, calculated taking the expected fire losses into account. Fire risk was assumed to consist of two components, probability of occurrence and damage. As the main cause of forest fires in Galicia is arson, the manager cannot significantly influence fire occurrence, which was assumed to be exogenous. Salvage was treated as an endogenous factor depending on the management schedule followed in the stand. Optimisations were done for different initial stands, timber assortments, discount rates and probabilities of fire occurrence. Based on the optimisation results, regression models were developed for the optimal rotation length as well as the timing and intensity of thinnings. The results show that when fire risk is partly endogenous, optimal rotation lengths become shorter with increasing probability of fire occurrence, and optimal thinning becomes heavier and earlier. However, without a price reduction for burned timber, the optimal rotation length increases with increasing probability of fire.

scholarly journals Männi-, kuuse- ja kasepuistute majandamise tasuvus lühikese raieringi korral / Profitability analysis of short rotations in Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch stands

2011 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henn Korjus ◽  
Priit Põllumäe ◽  
Siim Rool
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Silver Birch ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Rotation Length ◽  
Profitability Analysis ◽  
Optimal Rotation

Abstract. Estonian forest management is based traditionally on long rotations. Recent trends in wood industry and wood consumption promote also production of small-size timber for bioenergy and timber products. This opens a discussion about shorter rotations and intensive forest management again in Estonia. In current study, profitability of Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch stand management on fertile soils was analyzed according to three different rotation lengths: traditional long rotation, short rotation and economically optimal rotation according Finnish TAPIO rules. Stand simulation software MOTTI was used to simulate and optimize forest growth and management. Simulation results were compared with actual data on forest growth and yield in Estonia. Economically optimal rotations were for Scots pine stand 58 years, Norway spruce stand 53 years and silver birch stand 41 years. Short and optimal rotation length enable 5.9-6.5% profitability for forest owner, traditional long rotation length enables 4.8-5.4% profitability. Rotation forestry is challenging task. Based on our analysis, it is likely that applied practices can intensify wood production and reduce forest management risks. However, theoretical approach is not enough for assessing practical feasibility of short rotations. Thus further studies and experiments are needed for careful analysis and recommendations

scholarly journals A Probabilistic Method Predicting Forest Fire Occurrence Combining Firebrands and the Weather-Fuel Complex in the Northern Part of the Daxinganling Region, China

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Sun ◽  
Yunlin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Rating Method ◽  
Actual Fire

The fire danger rating method currently used in the northern part of the Daxinganling Region with the most severe forest fires in China only uses weather variables without considering firebrands. The discrepancy between fire occurrence and fire risk by FFDWR (Forest Fire-Danger Weather Rating, a method issued by the National Meteorological Bureau, that is used to predict forest fire probability through links between forest fire occurrence and weather variables) in the northern part is more obvious than that in the southern part. Great discrepancy has emerged between fire danger predicted by the method and actual fire occurrence in recent years since a strict firebrand prohibition policy has significantly reduced firebrands in the region. A probabilistic method predicting fire probability by introducing an Ignition Component (IC) in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) adopted in the United States to depict effects of both firebrand and weather-fuel complex on fire occurrence is developed to solve the problem. The suitability and accuracy of the new method in the region were assessed. Results show that the method is suitable in the region. IC or the modified IC can be adopted to depict the effect of the weather-fuel complex on fire occurrence and to rate fire danger for periods with fewer firebrands. Fire risk classes and corresponding preparedness level can be determined from IC in the region. Methods of the same principle could be established to diminish similar discrepancy between actual fire occurrence and fire danger in other countries.

scholarly journals Forest Fire Probability Mapping in Eastern Serbia: Logistic Regression versus Random Forest Method

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Slobodan Milanović ◽  
Nenad Marković ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Ljubomir Gigović ◽  
Pavle Kostić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Probability Mapping

Forest fire risk has increased globally during the previous decades. The Mediterranean region is traditionally the most at risk in Europe, but continental countries like Serbia have experienced significant economic and ecological losses due to forest fires. To prevent damage to forests and infrastructure, alongside other societal losses, it is necessary to create an effective protection system against fire, which minimizes the harmful effects. Forest fire probability mapping, as one of the basic tools in risk management, allows the allocation of resources for fire suppression, within a fire season, from zones with a lower risk to those under higher threat. Logistic regression (LR) has been used as a standard procedure in forest fire probability mapping, but in the last decade, machine learning methods such as fandom forest (RF) have become more frequent. The main goals in this study were to (i) determine the main explanatory variables for forest fire occurrence for both models, LR and RF, and (ii) map the probability of forest fire occurrence in Eastern Serbia based on LR and RF. The most important variable was drought code, followed by different anthropogenic features depending on the type of the model. The RF models demonstrated better overall predictive ability than LR models. The map produced may increase firefighting efficiency due to the early detection of forest fire and enable resources to be allocated in the eastern part of Serbia, which covers more than one-third of the country’s area.

scholarly journals Geotechnology applied to predict the risk of occurrence of fire in the Atlantic Forest

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 707-720
Author(s):  
Antonio Henrique Cordeiro Ramalho ◽  
Eleon De Castro Neder ◽  
Nilton Cesar Fiedler ◽  
Taís Rizzo Moreira ◽  
Jeferson Pereira Martins Silva
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Conservation Units ◽  
Forest Road ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Influential Variable

The maintenance of biodiversity is a global concern in economic, social and environmental terms. Thus, conservation units for the protection of natural environments were created. Despite the importance of these areas, forest fires have caused immeasurable and constant damage to Conservation Units. In view of this, the objective of this study was to determine the risk areas of forest fire occurrence through Fuzzy logic modeling in the Córrego Grande Biological Reserve, located in the Mata Atlântica Brazilian biome. In order to prospect for areas at risk of forest fires, the following variables were inserted in the model: land use, road network, slope and relief orientation. Finally, the model was validated by comparing the location of fire occurrences between the years 2008 and 2018, and a layout of the risk classes in the study area. In doing so, it was found that 65.87% of the area is between the 'moderate' and 'very high' range of fire risk classes, and that 70.22% of the fires which occurred in the studied period also occurred in that class range. The study concluded that the most influential variable on the risk level of fire occurrence is the forest road network. In this way, the proposed methodology can be applied to any other areas and types of land cover.

scholarly journals The Effect of Carbon Revenues on the Rotation and Profitability of Loblolly Pine Plantations in East Texas

2006 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-Hsun Huang ◽  
Gary D. Kronrad
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Pinus Taeda ◽  
Loblolly Pine ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
High Productivity ◽  
Rotation Length ◽  
Optimal Rotation ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Soil Expectation Value ◽  
Final Harvest

Abstract This study determined the profitability and financially optimal thinning and final harvest rotation of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) managed exclusively for timber production or for dual products of timber production and carbon sequestration. The results suggest that 1) depending on landowner’s alternative rate of return, the inclusion of carbon revenues in forest management may shorten or prolong the optimal timber-carbon rotation length, compared to the optimal rotation that maximizes timber value only; 2) the effect of carbon revenues on the optimal rotation length and the percentage gain in soil expectation value is larger on low-productivity sites than on high-productivity sites, and is larger for high interest rates than for low interest rates; and 3) low-productivity, unprofitable sites may become profitable when carbon revenue is included and optimized together with the timber revenue.South. J. Appl. For.30(1):21–29.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Forest Fires in Southeastern Australia Using SAR Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2386
Author(s):  
Aqil Tariq ◽  
Hong Shu ◽  
Qingting Li ◽  
Orhan Altan ◽  
Mobushir Riaz Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Backscatter Coefficient ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Sar Imagery

Prescribed burning is a common strategy for minimizing forest fire risk. Fire is introduced under specific environmental conditions, with explicit duration, intensity, and rate of spread. Such conditions deviate from those encountered during the fire season. Prescribed burns mostly affect surface fuels and understory vegetation, an outcome markedly different when compared to wildfires. Data on prescribed burning are crucial for evaluating whether land management targets have been reached. This research developed a methodology to quantify the effects of prescribed burns using multi-temporal Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery in the forests of southeastern Australia. C-band SAR datasets were specifically used to statistically explore changes in radar backscatter coefficients with the intensity of prescribed burns. Two modeling approaches based on pre- and post-fire ratios were applied for evaluating prescribed burn impacts. The effects of prescribed burns were documented with an overall accuracy of 82.3% using cross-polarized backscatter (VH) SAR data under dry conditions. The VV polarization indicated some potential to detect burned areas under wet conditions. The findings in this study indicate that the C-band SAR backscatter coefficient has the potential to evaluate the effectiveness of prescribed burns due to its sensitivity to changes in vegetation structure.

Deriving Tree Diameter Growth and Probability of Survival Equations from Successive Diameter Distributions

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-35
Author(s):  
Thomas G. Matney ◽  
Emily B. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
General Procedure ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Tree Diameter ◽  
Growth And Yield Models ◽  
Diameter Distributions

Abstract Many growth and yield models have used statistical probability distributions to estimate the diameter distribution of a stand at any age. Equations for approximating individual tree diameter growth and survival probabilities from dbh can be derived from these models. A general procedure for determining the functions is discussed and illustrated using a loblolly pine spacing study. The results from the spacing study show that it is possible to define tree diameter growth and survival probability functions from diameter distributions with an accuracy sufficient to obtain a link between the individual tree and diameter growth and yield models.

scholarly journals Tendencies of Fire Development in the Forests of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Yevhen Melnyk ◽  
Vladimir Voron
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zones ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zone

Preservation and increase of forest area are necessary conditions for the biosphere functioning. Forest ecosystems in most parts of the world are affected by fires. According to the latest data, the forest fire situation has become complicated in Ukraine, and this issue requires ongoing investigation. The aim of the study was to analyse the dynamics of wildfires in Ukrainian forests over recent decades and to assess the complex indicator of wildfire occurrence in various forest management zones and administrative regions. The average annual complex indicator of fire occurrence, in terms of wildfire number and burned area, was studied in detail in the forests of various administrative regions and forest management zones in Ukraine from 1998 to 2017. The results show that fire occurrence in both the number and area of fires can vary significantly in various forest management zones. There is a very noticeable difference in these indicators in some administrative regions within a particular forest management zone. The data show that the number of forest fires depends not only on the natural and climatic conditions of such regions, but also on anthropogenic factors.

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