Integrating new methods and tools in fire danger rating

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Vasilakos ◽  
Kostas Kalabokidis ◽  
John Hatzopoulos ◽  
George Kallos ◽  
Yiannis Matsinos
Keyword(s):  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Fire Ignition

Prevention is one of the most important stages in wildfire and other natural hazard management regimes. Fire danger rating systems have been adopted by many developed countries dealing with wildfire prevention and pre-suppression planning, so that civil protection agencies are able to define areas with high probabilities of fire ignition and resort to necessary actions. This present paper presents a fire ignition risk scheme, developed in the study area of Lesvos Island, Greece, that can be an integral component of a quantitative Fire Danger Rating System. The proposed methodology estimates the geo-spatial fire risk regardless of fire causes or expected burned area, and it has the ability of forecasting based on meteorological data. The main output of the proposed scheme is the Fire Ignition Index, which is based on three other indices: Fire Weather Index, Fire Hazard Index, and Fire Risk Index. These indices are not just a relative probability for fire occurrence, but a rather quantitative assessment of fire danger in a systematic way. Remote sensing data from the high-resolution QuickBird and the Landsat ETM satellite sensors were utilised in order to provide part of the input parameters to the scheme, while Remote Automatic Weather Stations and the SKIRON/Eta weather forecasting system provided real-time and forecasted meteorological data, respectively. Geographic Information Systems were used for management and spatial analyses of the input parameters. The relationship between wildfire occurrence and the input parameters was investigated by neural networks whose training was based on historical data.

scholarly journals Fire Danger Harmonization Based on the Fire Weather Index for Transboundary Events between Portugal and Spain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1087
Author(s):  
Daniela Alves ◽  
Miguel Almeida ◽  
Domingos Xavier Viegas ◽  
Ilda Novo ◽  
M. Yolanda Luna
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Buffer Strip

Portugal and Spain have a cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a buffer strip of 25 km for each side of the border. In spite of the success of this collaboration, there are issues to be improved, since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different methodologies to assess the daily fire danger. A methodology to harmonize fire danger and its interpretation by the Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities in the transboundary buffer strip area is hereby presented. The fire danger index used is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which requires input from meteorological data and gives an indication of fire intensity. The fire danger class is an important decision support tool for preventing and fighting wildfires. Since the meaning of FWI values change from region-to-region according to its specific characteristics, a calibration process was performed based on statistical data of the daily FWI values, the number of fires and burned area between 2005 and 2013. The results of the FWI calibration and harmonization of the data for the five danger classes minimizes the fire danger discrepancies across the border. This methodology has the potential to be reproduced in other areas.

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling Drying of Degenerated Calluna vulgaris for Wildfire and Prescribed Burning Risk Assessment

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torgrim Log
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Diffusion Coefficients ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Calluna Vulgaris ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Drying Process

Research highlights: Moisture diffusion coefficients for stems and branches of degenerated Calluna vulgaris L. have been obtained and a mathematical model for the drying process has been developed and validated as an input to future fire danger modeling. Background and objectives: In Norway, several recent wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires have been attributed to climate changes and accumulation of elevated live and dead biomass in degenerated Calluna stands due to changes in agricultural activities, i.e., in particular abandonment of prescribed burning for sheep grazing. Prescribed burning is now being reintroduced in these currently fire prone landscapes. While available wildfire danger rating models fail to predict the rapidly changing fire hazard in such heathlands, there is an increasing need for an adapted fire danger model. The present study aims at determining water diffusion coefficients and develops a numerical model for the drying process, paving the road for future fire danger forecasts and prediction of safe and efficient conditions for prescribed burning. Materials and methods: Test specimens (3–6 mm diameter) of dead Calluna stems and branches were rain wetted 48 h and subsequently placed in a climate chamber at 20 °C and 50% relative humidity for mass loss recordings during natural convection drying. Based on the diameter and recorded mass versus time, diffusion coefficients were obtained. A numerical model was developed and verified against recoded mass loss. Results: Diffusion coefficients were obtained in the range 1.66–10.4 × 10−11 m2/s. This is quite low and may be explained by the very hard Calluna “wood”. The large span may be explained by different growth conditions, insect attacks and a varying number of years of exposure to the elements after dying. The mathematical model described the drying process well for the specimens with known diffusion coefficient. Conclusions: The established range of diffusion coefficients and the developed model may likely be extended for forecasting moisture content of degenerated Calluna as a proxy for fire danger and/or conditions for efficient and safe prescribed burning. This may help mitigate the emerging fire risk associated with degenerated Calluna stands in a changing climate.

scholarly journals PENGEMBANGAN METODE ANALISIS RISIKO BENCANA: SEBUAH STUDI KASUS PULAU LOMBOK

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syamsuddin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
A Site ◽  
The City

Earthquakes often cause fatalities to human being. Unfortunately, the event of earthquakes cannot be forecasted. But, the hazard risk due to these earthquakes could be reduced if the geological, seismic and physical surface conditions are known. This reduction plays an important role in disaster mitigation. This paper discusses the development of a method for hazard risk analysis due to earthquakes. The development is based on the input parameters of the hazard and vulnerability components of a site being investigated. Each parameter is then rated, so the total rating of hazard and vulnerability input parameters is obtained. The comparison between the applied rating and the total rating of hazard and vulnerability input parameters results in an index of each input parameter, consecutively. Thus, the multiplication of indexes, (hazard and vulnerability), results in a hazard risk index. Based on the proposed hazard index, a case study in the city of Mataram of Lombok Island has been conducted. The result shows that the city of Mataram has a medium hazard risk index. This means that if an earthquake occurs in the city of Mataram, a medium scale of fatalities may be experienced by the city. However, this index should be considered as an early warning system in disaster mitigation. So, the real condition of the city should be evaluated in order to increase the degree of preparedness due to the event of earthquakes that could occur at any time.

scholarly journals Assessment of Fire Hazard on the Readymade Garment Industry in Chittagong City, Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahidul Islam ◽  
Rafion Islam Roman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Short Circuit ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Industrial Area ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Fire Hazards ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Average Condition

The Readymade Garments (RMG) industries are in Bangladesh is the largest contributor to the national export earnings and second largest in GDP of the country. Starting from the late Seventies as minor as well as non-traditional sector with a negligible of exporting, the RMG sector has dramatically grown up a geometric progression over the few decades. Although the country has a glorious history of textile, cloths and clothing’s from the ancient period of time. At present, about 75% of the total exports of the country having from this sector and one of the principle key points of employment. Over the preceding decade, fire and fire hazard is the continual problem in the country’s readymade garments industries. Only in 2012 about 169 people died and huge people are injured because of fire hazards in RMGs. Considering this as a crucial problem, the study was carried out a geo-spatial analysis on Chittagong Export Processing Zone (CEPZ) and Baizid Industrial hub of Chittagong city, Bangladesh. The study was mainly done by primary field survey while secondary sources were also used in comparing and basement of analysis. There are two types of parameters (Hard and Soft Parameters) generally used to assess the fire hazard of readymade garments. The research has been done by adopting the soft parameter, as exit door locked, emergency exit in the factory, fire extinguisher etc. The Fire Risk Index has been developed on the basis of 19 soft parameters. In Chittagong EPZ area 25 garments factories have been surveyed instantly to observe the current status of fire risk for the lack of 19 parameters. Results show that in CEPZ area for 19 parameters the mean safety is 90.45% or 9.55% deviation from the standard. On the contrary, the average condition of 19 parameters is 80.29% fluctuation from the benchmark in the Baizid Industrial area though it is considered as good condition but nearest to the average. Electric short circuit is the prime cause of fire in CEPZ area and also in Baizid industrial hub. At the eleventh hour, it is found from the study that about 80% garments in Baizid Industrial area under in good condition which is (10-20) % deviation from ideal case. On the other hand in CEPZ area about 80% garments are fallen excellent condition, it is only 8% seen in Baizid area. The study also reveals that there is no garments in both area which is in poor or average condition or vulnerable to fire hazards but in Baizid it is about 20% garments are fallen average condition or nearly vulnerable. Before conducting the study, it is seemed that it will be found the garments will be more vulnerable to fire hazards but at the end of the day it is proved as erroneous, for the recurrence of fire hazards in the last few years they have raised the magnitude of fire safety in almost every cases and now the garments are more secured in case of fire hazards.

scholarly journals Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel M. Pinto ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
K. Feridun Turkman
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
Daily Energy

Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe aiming to improve state-of-the art modelling skills for classes of high fire danger. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological information by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a Daily Model based on a Generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated to daily probability estimated by the Daily Model. The model is calibrated using seven years of data (2010–2016) and validated against the period of January–August 2017. Results obtained show that about 80 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the Extreme class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than the double of the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

Sensitivity of the CFFDRS Fire Weather Index parameters for Indian weather conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anasuya Barik ◽  
Somnath Baidya Roy
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Model

<p>The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used to assess and predict the fire behavior in various forest ecosystems all over the world. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) module of the CFFDRS models the relationship between meteorology and forest fires. It was observed in our earlier study that the values of the FWI and its related parameters were considerably different from the other countries that use the model for their operational fire weather simulation. In this study we evaluate the model performance over Indian climate for a period of 10 years 1996-2005 under various weather scenarios. The daily meteorological data from ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis has been used as inputs to the fire model and the active fire data from MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites over the study period has been used to evaluate the capability of model to simulate fire danger. As India has many different climatic zones, we evaluated the behavior fire model parameters over 5 forest zones namely Himalayan, Deciduous, Western Ghats, Thorn forests and North Eastern forests based on the Roy et al. 2016 Land Use Land Cover data and Koppen climatic zones.  The analysis was narrowed down over only the forest areas of the zones so as to remove any chances of including the non-forest fires detected by the satellite. Results show that the FWI shows a strong correlation with forest fires if the model is correctly spun up and appropriately calibrated. A spin up time of minimum 60 days was found to be appropriate for stabilization of FWI components like Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Drought Code (DC). Sensitivity studies showed that temperature and relative humidity are the key controlling factors of forest fires over India and that the parameters depict high interannual seasonality due to relatively lower values during the Indian monsoon season.</p><p>This study is one of the first attempts to use fire models to simulate fire behavior over India. It can serve as a launchpad for further work on fire hazard prediction and effects of climate change on fire hazard in India.</p>

Evaluation of the reliability of the high-resolution WRF fire danger forecasts in Poland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Gruszczynska ◽  
Alan Mandal ◽  
Grzegorz Nykiel ◽  
Tomasz Strzyzewski ◽  
Weronika Wronska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

<p>Fires negatively affect the composition and structure of fauna and flora, as well as the quality of air, soils and water. They cause economic losses and pose a risk to human life. Poland is at the forefront of European countries in terms of forest fires. Therefore, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NIR) implemented fire danger forecast system based on high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Forecasted meteorological data are used to calculate parameters of Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System: Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Buildup Index (BUI), Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Duff Moisture Code (DMC), and Drought Code (DC). Each parameter is presented in one of the classes corresponding to the fire danger – from low to extreme. In this way, a daily 24- and 48-hour fire danger forecasts are generated for the whole area of Poland and presented on IMWM-NIR meteorological website (meteo.imgw.pl).</p><p>In this presentation we show analyses of reliability of implemented FWI system. For this purpose, data reprocessing from March to September 2019 were made. Also data on fires occurrence on forest lands: time of occurrence, characteristics and location, from the resources of the State Fire Service were collected. Finally, for the selected period, we obtained a dataset of about 8 thousand events for which we assigned values of FWI parameters. Generally, based on our analysis, correlation between number of fires and averaged value of FWI amounted over 0.8. We found out, the correlation coefficient calculated for regions differ. The correlation is higher in central and northern Poland compared to the eastern part of the country, which also correspond to the number of fires. This may be related to the different forest structure - there is a higher proportion of broadleaf forests in the east. The comparison of 24- and 48-hour forecasts showed that they have similar reliability.</p>

scholarly journals Forest Fire Prediction in Northern Sumatera using Support Vector Machine Based on the Fire Weather Index

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darwis Robinson Manalu ◽  
Muhammad Zarlis ◽  
Herman Mawengkang ◽  
Opim Salim Sitompul
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Data Mining Approach ◽  
Prevention Activity

Forest fires are a major environmental issue, creating economical and ecological damage while dangering human lives. The investigation and survey for forest fire had been done in Aek Godang, Northern Sumatera, Indonesia. There is 26 hotspot in 2017 close to Aek Godang, North Sumatera, Indonesia. In this study, we use a data mining approach to train and test the data of forest fire and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from meteorological data. The aim of this study to predict the burned area and identify the forest fire in Aek Godang areas, North Sumatera. The result of this study indicated that Fire fighting and prevention activity may be one reason for the observed lack of correlation. The fact that this dataset exists indicates that there is already some effort going into fire prevention.

scholarly journals Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 515-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel M. Pinto ◽  
Carlos C. DaCamara ◽  
Isabel F. Trigo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
K. Feridun Turkman
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
Daily Energy

Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016) and validated against the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the “extreme” class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

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