Evaluation of the Experimental Climate Prediction Center's fire danger forecasts with remote automated weather station observations

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hauss J. Reinbold ◽  
John O. Roads ◽  
Timothy J. Brown

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been routinely making regional forecasts of atmospheric elements and fire danger indices since 27 September 1997. This study evaluates these forecasts using selected remote automated weather station observations over the western USA. Bias and anomaly correlations are computed for daily 2-m maximum, minimum, average temperature, 2-m maximum, minimum and average relative humidity, precipitation and afternoon 10-m wind speed, and four National Fire Danger Rating System indices—ignition component, spread component, burning index and energy release component. Of the atmospheric elements, temperature generally correlates well, but relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed are less correlated. Fire danger indices have much lower correlations, but do show useful spatial structure in some areas such as Southern California, Arizona and Nevada.

Author(s):  
S.I. Pyasetska ◽  
N.P. Grebenyuk ◽  
S.V. Savchuk

The article presents the results of the study of the determination of the correlation connection between a number of meteorological values at the beginning of the deposition of ice on the wires of a standard ice-cream machine in certain months of the cold period of the year on the territory of Ukraine during 2001-2013. The research was conducted for 3 winter months, as well as for March and November. The pair of meteorological parameters have been determined at the beginning of the deposition of ice that have a statistically significant correlation coefficient and a spatial-temporal distribution of the distribution in certain months across the territory of Ukraine has been obtained. The most common variant of the statistically significant connection between individual meteorological parameters was the connection between the temperature of the water column (average, maximum, minimum) and relative humidity of air (average, maximum). Thus, for almost all months studied, a statistically significant correlation between the temperature of the vapor (average, maximum, minimum) and relative humidity of air (average, maximum) was established. For the winter months, the correlation coefficient of this connection was positive, and for March and November, it was negative. A widespread version of a statistically significant connection was the relationship between the air temperature (average, maximum, minimum) and the height of the snow cover. This connection for the months studied turned out to be negative. The variants of negative statistically significant connection between average wind speed and average relative humidity of air (January-February, December), average and maximum wind speed and sea-level pressure (November), and also between daily amount precipitation and snow (March), daily rainfall and wind speed (average, maximum), and pressure at sea level (November). During the months of the cold period of the year, statistically significant connections between the air temperature (average, maximum) and pressure at sea level (November), wind speed (average, maximum) and average humidity (January, December), pressure on sea levels and average relative humidity (March). Also, there were isolated cases of statistically significant correlation between snow and sea level pressure (December). The most frequently statistically significant connections between meteorological values at the dates of deposition of ice on the wires of a standard icing machine were observed at stations in the central, northeastern, eastern and separate southern regions.


2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 399 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Roads ◽  
P. Tripp ◽  
H. Juang ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
F. Fujioka ◽  
...  

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover and wind speed, can be skilfully predicted at weekly to seasonal time scales by a global to regional dynamical prediction system modified from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Coupled Forecast System. The System generates global and regional spectral model ensemble forecasts, which in turn provide required input meteorological variables for fire danger. Seven-month US regional forecasts were generated every month from 1982 to 2007. This study shows that coarse-scale global predictions were more skilful than persistence, and fine-scale regional model predictions were more skilful than global predictions. The fire indices were better related to fire counts and area burned than meteorological variables, although relative humidity and temperature were useful predictors of fire characteristics.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-268
Author(s):  
SURENDER SINGH ◽  
V.U.M. RAO ◽  
DIW AN SINGH

An experiment was conducted to study the microclimate of summer moong in relation to bare field. Albedo values were higher at flowering than maturity stage. Air temperature values were lower in cropped field than bare field values at flowering and maturity stage. The average relative humidity deviations were 1.8,4.4,5.0 and 3.6 per cent at flowering and 2.2, 3.0,4.2, 3.8 and. 3.2 per cent at maturity stage at 0800, 1000, 1200, 1400 and 1700 IST. The wind speed values were lower in lower in  cropped  field than bare field.


2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Timothy Brown ◽  
Graham Mills ◽  
Sarah Harris ◽  
Domagoj Podnar ◽  
Hauss Reinbold ◽  
...  

Climatology data of fire weather across the landscape can provide science-based evidence for informing strategic decisions to ameliorate the impacts (at times extreme) of bushfires on community socio-economic wellbeing and to sustain ecosystem health and functions. A long-term climatology requires spatial and temporal data that are consistent to represent the landscape in sufficient detail to be useful for fire weather studies and management purposes. To address this inhomogeneity problem for analyses of a variety of fire weather interests and to provide a dataset for management decision-support, a homogeneous 41-year (1972-2012), hourly interval, 4 km gridded climate dataset for Victoria has been generated using a combination of mesoscale modelling, global reanalysis data, surface observations, and historic observed rainfall analyses. Hourly near-surface forecast fields were combined with Drought Factor (DF) fields calculated from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) rainfall analyses to generate fields of hourly fire danger indices for each hour of the 41-year period. A quantile mapping (QM) bias correction technique utilizing available observations during 1996-2012 was used to ameliorate any model biases in wind speed, temperature and relative humidity. Extensive evaluation was undertaken including both quantitative and case study qualitative assessments. The final dataset includes 4-km surface hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), and daily DF and Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and a 32-level full three-dimensional volume atmosphere.


2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederic P. Schoenberg ◽  
Chien-Hsun Chang ◽  
Jon E. Keeley ◽  
Jamie Pompa ◽  
James Woods ◽  
...  

The Burning Index (BI) is commonly used as a predictor of wildfire activity. An examination of data on the BI and wildfires in Los Angeles County, California, from January 1976 to December 2000 reveals that although the BI is positively associated with wildfire occurrence, its predictive value is quite limited. Wind speed alone has a higher correlation with burn area than BI, for instance, and a simple alternative point process model using wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and temperature well outperforms the BI in terms of predictive power. The BI is generally far too high in winter and too low in fall, and may exaggerate the impact of individual variables such as wind speed or temperature during times when other variables, such as precipitation or relative humidity, render the environment ill suited for wildfires.


Irriga ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-235
Author(s):  
Aureliano De Albuquerque Ribeiro ◽  
Aderson Soares De Andrade Júnior ◽  
Everaldo Moreira Da Silva ◽  
Marcelo Simeão ◽  
Edson Alves Bastos

COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE DADOS METEOROLÓGICOS OBTIDOS POR ESTAÇÕES CONVENCIONAIS E AUTOMÁTICAS NO ESTADO DO PIAUÍ, BRASIL*  AURELIANO DE ALBUQUERQUE RIBEIRO1; ADERSON SOARES DE ANDRADE JÚNIOR2; EVERALDO MOREIRA DA SILVA3; MARCELO SIMEÃO4 E EDSON ALVES BASTOS2 1Doutorando em Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Av. Mister Hull, s/n - Pici, bloco 804, 60455-760, Fortaleza - CE, [email protected] Embrapa Meio-Norte, Teresina, PI, [email protected], [email protected] Professor Adjunto II da Universidade Federal do Piauí, Campus Professora Cinobelina Elvas, Bom Jesus, PI, [email protected] Mestre em Agronomia: Solos e Nutrição de Plantas, Universidade Federal do Piauí, Campus Professora Cinobelina Elvas, Bom Jesus, PI, [email protected]*Extraído da dissertação de mestrado do primeiro autor  1 RESUMOO registro de elementos climáticos é efetuado por estações meteorológicas convencionais e automáticas. Porém, por questões operacionais e de custo, as estações automáticas estão substituindo as convencionais. Contudo, para que as séries de dados dessas estações sejam únicas, há a necessidade de estudos comparativos entre as duas estações. O estudo teve como objetivo comparar dados meteorológicos obtidos por estações convencionais (EMC) e automáticas (EMA) em municípios do Estado do Piauí (Paulistana, Picos, São João do Piauí, Floriano, Parnaíba e Piripiri). Os elementos meteorológicos avaliados foram: temperaturas do ar máxima (°C) mínima (ºC) e média (ºC), umidade relativa média do ar (%), velocidade do vento a 10 m (m s-1), precipitação pluviométrica (mm) e pressão atmosférica média (hPa). As comparações dos dados foram feitas por meio dos seguintes indicadores estatísticos: precisão (R2), erro absoluto médio (EAM), coeficiente de correlação (r), índice de concordância de Willmott (d) e índice de confiança (c). Os melhores ajustes dos dados foram constatados para a precipitação e pressão atmosférica; intermediários, para a temperatura do ar, umidade relativa do ar média e os piores, para a velocidade do vento. A umidade relativa média do ar foi o elemento analisado que mostrou as maiores diferenças entre a EMC e a EMA. Palavras-chave: Agrometeorologia, elementos climáticos, sensores. RIBEIRO, A. A.; ANDRADE JÚNIOR, A. S.; SILVA, E.M.; SIMEÃO, M.; BASTOS, E.A.COMPARISON OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA RECORDED BY CONVENTIONAL AND AUTOMATIC STATIONS IN PIAUÍ STATE, BRAZIL   2 ABSTRACTClimatic elements are recorded by both conventional and automatic weather stations. However, due to cost and operational issues, automatic stations are replacing the conventional. So that  data sets from these stations are unique, there is a need for comparative studies between the two types of stations. The aim of this study was to compare meteorological data obtained by conventional and automatic stations in towns of the State of Piauí, Brazil (Paulistana, Picos, São João do Piauí, Floriano and Piripiri).The meteorological elements evaluated were: maximum (°C) minimum (°C) and average (°C) air temperature, average relative humidity (%), wind speed at 10 m (m s-1), rainfall (mm) and average atmospheric pressure (hPa). Data comparison was by the following statistical indicators: precision (R2), mean absolute error (EAM), Pearson correlation coefficient (r), Willmott’s index of agreement (d) and confidence index (c).  The best data adjustments were observed for rainfall and atmospheric pressure; intermediates for the air temperature, average relative humidity and worst for the wind speed.  The air average relative humidity was the analyzed element that showed the greatest differences between EMC and EMA. Keywords: Agrometeorology, meteorological elements, sensors 


2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewelina Dec ◽  
Bożena Babiarz ◽  
Robert Sekret

On the thermal comfort of a man staying outdoor during the summer affect mostly meteorological factors, physical activity and the type of clothing. The work analyzed external air parameters, such as: temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, occuring in years 1997‒2016. Meteorological data recorded at the RzeszÓw-Jasionka station allowed to determine, among others, the occurrence of maximum daily and hourly temperatures of outdoor, the daytime and hourly air relative humidity, the hourly wind speed, as well as the relationship between these parameters. In recent years, it has been observed the increase of the number of hot and very hot days which indicates a warming of the climate. The duration of series of days with maximum daily temperature above 30°C is also prolonged, which is not comfortable for a person staying outside. During summer, during hot and very hot days, the average relative humidity remained below 70%. The daily course of this factor was characterized by the opposite tendency with respect to temperature. The wind speed in the summer season varies from 0 to 6 m/s. On a daily basis, the increase in wind speed occurred in the afternoon hours which is consistent with the temperature characteristics. The occurrence of wind during the hottest hours causes a pleasant cooling of the organism.


Irriga ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Luiz Teixeira Fernandes ◽  
Marcos Vinícius Folegatti ◽  
Antonio Roberto Pereira

AVALIAÇÃO DE DIFERENTES MÉTODOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO DA CULTURA DO CRISÂNTEMO (Chrisantemum spp.) CULTIVADO EM ESTUFA PLÁSTICA  André Luiz Teixeira Fernandes1; Marcos Vinícius Folegatti2; Antonio Roberto Pereira21Pró Reitoria de Pesquisa e Pós Graduação, Universidade de Uberaba, Uberaba, MG, andré[email protected] de Engenharia Rural, Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP  1 RESUMO  Com o objetivo de estudar métodos de controle de irrigação numa cultura de crisântemo, instalou-se uma estação agrometeorológica automática, numa estufa de 5600 m2, com  sensores de temperatura do ar, velocidade do vento, umidade relativa do ar, radiação solar global e lisímetro de pesagem com célula de carga, conectados a um coletor de dados. A partir dos dados meteorológicos obtidos, estimou-se a evapotranspiração da cultura utilizando-se os seguintes métodos: Tanque evaporimétrico, Camargo, Makkink, Radiação solar, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Hargreaves-Samani, Penman, Penman-piche e Penman-Monteith. Os resultados foram comparados com as medições do lisímetro, considerado padrão. Os métodos que obtiveram maiores índices de correlação foram: Jensen-Haise (72,50%); Radiação Solar (71,53%); Makkink (71,53%), Penman-Monteith (71,16%) e Penman (72,09%).UNITERMOS: evapotranspiração, comparação entre métodos, cultura do crisântemo, cultivo protegido.  FERNANDES, A. L. T.; FOLEGATTI, M. V.; PEREIRA, A. R. VALUATION OF DIFFERENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ESTIMATE METHODS FOR (Chrysanthemum spp) CULTIVATED IN PLASTIC GREENHOUSE  2 ABSTRACT In order to study some methods to control irrigation of a chrysanthemum crop, an automatic weather station was installed inside a 5600 m2 greenhouse with the following sensors connected to a data logger: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and a weighing lysimeter. Evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated by the weather station data using the following methods: Solar Radiation, Pan Evaporation, Camargo, Makkink, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Hargreaves-Samani, Penman, Penman-piche and Penman-Monteith. The results were compared with the ones from the weighing lysimeter data, which were considered standard. The best correlation indices were obtained by: Jensen-Haise (72.50%); solar radiation (71.53%); Makkink (71.53%), Penman-Monteith (71.16%) and Penman (72.09%). KEYWORDS: evapotranspiration, comparison of methods, chrysanthemum crop, protecting culture 


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Md Abdullah Salman ◽  
Faisal Ahmed

The Climatological data (temperature, rainfall, wind speed & relative humidity) recorded at Barishal divisional meteorological station and Bangladesh Meteorological Departments over the period of 1961-2019 is used for an assessment of climatological aspects, climate change and the variability of Barishal in Bangladesh. The trend of variant of yearly average maximum and minimum temperature has been found to be increasing at a rate of 0.0055 ºC & 0.0087 ºC/year. Analysis of rainfall data observed that for majority of stations, the total rainfall showed decreasing trend for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, while little increasing trend was observed for the post-monsoon. Calculated annual total rainfall in Barishal was showed declining at the rate of -0.18488 mm/year and annual average wind speed was increasing by 0.001783 m/s per year. Likewise, yearly average relative humidity observed to be abrupt rising at a rate of 0.342975 per year with average of 70.855 at 2 meters.


2021 ◽  
Vol 186 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-182
Author(s):  
Assem MOHAMED ◽  
Mona MAZE ◽  
Mohamed ABDELAZIZ ◽  
Alaa KHALIL

Cotton is one of the strategic crops in Egypt. This article investigates the impacts of climatic factors and their variations on the cotton yield and its economic benefits during the period from 1998 to 2019. We chose the Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate, where cotton is one of the major planted crops, was chosen for the analysis. The climatic factors utilized were the maximum, minimum and average temperatures; relative humidity; solar radiation and wind speed. Precipitation was excluded, as Egypt depends mainly on irrigation. The climatic factors utilized influenced yield during different growth stages: wind speed showed an influence only on the germination stage, whereas temperature had a major impact before and at the maturity stages. The latter correlation was positive in July and negative in August and September. Relative humidity and solar radiation impacted on yield at different growth stages, with an almost positive correlation with solar radiation and both a positive and a negative correlation with relative humidity. For the study of the economic indicators of cotton, cotton data were taken for the whole Egyptian Governorate during the period 2005-2019. The study showed a decrease in the net return during the period from 2005 to 2015 that reached a loss (minus value) of 195 Egyptian pounds (LE) in 2015, followed by an increase during the period from 2016 to 2019 due to the increase in farm gate prices.


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