scholarly journals Climate Change in Queensland's Grazing Lands: Ii. An Assessment of the Impact on Animal Production From Native Pastures.

1998 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
WB Hall ◽  
GM Mckeon ◽  
JO Carter ◽  
KA Day ◽  
SM Howden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Animal Production ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Stock Management ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Native Pastures ◽  
The Impact

The 160 million ha of grazing land in Queensland support approximately 10 million beef equivalents (9.8 million cattle and 10.7 million sheep) with treed and cleared native pastures as the major forage source. The complexity of these biophysical systems and their interaction with pasture and stock management, economic and social forces limits our ability to easily calculate the impact of climate change scenarios. We report the application of a systems approach in simulating the flow of plant dry matter and utilisation of forage by animals. Our review of available models highlighted the lack of suitable mechanistic models and the potential role of simple empirical relationships of utilisation and animal production derived from climatic and soil indices. Plausible climate change scenarios were evaluated by using a factorial of rainfall (f 10%) * 3260C temperature increase * doubling CO, in sensitivity studies at property, regional and State scales. Simulation of beef cattle liveweight gain at three locations in the Queensland black speargrass zone showed that a *lo% change in rainfall was magnified to be a f 15% change in animal production (liveweight gain per ha) depending on location, temperature and CO, change. Models of 'safe' carrying capacity were developed from property data and expert opinion. Climate change impacts on 'safe' carrying capacity varied considerably across the State depending on whether moisture, temperature or nutrients were the limiting factors. Without the effect of doubling CO,, warmer temperatures and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in -35 to +70% changes in 'safe' carrying capacity depending on location. With the effect of doubling CO, included, the changes in 'safe' carrying capacity ranged from -12 to +115% across scenarios and locations. When aggregated to a whole-of-State carrying capacity, the combined effects of warmer temperature, doubling CO, and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in 'safe' carrying capacity changes of +3 to +45% depending on rainfall scenario and location. A major finding of the sensitivity study was the potential importance of doubling CO, in mitigating or amplifying the effects of warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall. Field studies on the impact of CO, are therefore a high research priority. Keywords: climate change, Queensland, simulation, rangelands, beef production, cattle, carrying capacity, CO,, utilisation

scholarly journals The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Kaufman ◽  
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera ◽  
Vicky Tam ◽  
Lihai Song ◽  
Ethan Coffel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Kidney Stone ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997–2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered—one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085–89 (vs. 2010–2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.

scholarly journals Epigenetic responses of hare barley (Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum) to climate change: an experimental, trait-based approach

Heredity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Chano ◽  
Tania Domínguez-Flores ◽  
Maria Dolores Hidalgo-Galvez ◽  
Jesús Rodríguez-Calcerrada ◽  
Ignacio Manuel Pérez-Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Epigenetic Regulation ◽  
Cytosine Methylation ◽  
Regulation Of Gene Expression ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Grass Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Hordeum Murinum ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures forecasted by climate change models on plant communities will depend on the capacity of plant species to acclimate and adapt to new environmental conditions. The acclimation process is mainly driven by epigenetic regulation, including structural and chemical modifications on the genome that do not affect the nucleotide sequence. In plants, one of the best-known epigenetic mechanisms is cytosine-methylation. We evaluated the impact of 30% reduced rainfall (hereafter “drought” treatment; D), 3 °C increased air temperature (“warming”; W), and the combination of D and W (WD) on the phenotypic and epigenetic variability of Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum L., a grass species of high relevance in Mediterranean agroforestry systems. A full factorial experiment was set up in a savannah-like ecosystem located in southwestern Spain. H. murinum exhibited a large phenotypic plasticity in response to climatic conditions. Plants subjected to warmer conditions (i.e., W and WD treatments) flowered earlier, and those subjected to combined stress (WD) showed a higher investment in leaf area per unit of leaf mass (i.e., higher SLA) and produced heavier seeds. Our results also indicated that both the level and patterns of methylation varied substantially with the climatic treatments, with the combination of D and W inducing a clearly different epigenetic response compared to that promoted by D and W separately. The main conclusion achieved in this work suggests a potential role of epigenetic regulation of gene expression for the maintenance of homoeostasis and functional stability under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

scholarly journals Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alizée Chemison ◽  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Guigone Camus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
System A ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

scholarly journals Irrigation water requirements for seed corn and coffee under potential climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Fares ◽  
Ripendra Awal ◽  
Samira Fares ◽  
Alton B. Johnson ◽  
Hector Valenzuela
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Percolation ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Seed Corn ◽  
The Impact

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on the irrigation water requirements (IRRs) of two major agricultural crops (coffee and seed corn) in Hawai'i was studied using the Irrigation Management System (IManSys) model. In addition to IRRs calculations, IManSys calculates runoff, deep percolation, canopy interception, and effective rainfall based on plant growth parameters, site specific soil hydrological properties, irrigation system efficiency, and long-term daily weather data. Irrigation water requirements of two crops were simulated using historical climate data and different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5, ±10 and ±20%) chosen based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under reference, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. IRRs decreased as CO2 emission increased. The average percentage decrease in IRRs for seed corn is higher than that of coffee. However, runoff, rain canopy interception, and deep percolation below the root zone increased as precipitation increased. Canopy interception and drainage increased with increased CO2 emission. Evapotranspiration responded positively to air temperature rise, and as a result, IRRs increased as well. Further studies using crop models will predict crop yield responses to these different irrigation scenarios.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals How can effect the synergy of climate change, soil units and vegetation groups the potential global distribution of plants up to 2300: a modelling study for prediction of potential global distribution and migration of the N<sub>2</sub> fixing species <i>Alnus</i> spp.

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 815-864
Author(s):  
A. Sakalli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nitrogen Fixation ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Soil Units ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Plant migration is a well known adaptation strategy of plant groups or species with evidence from historical to present observation and monitoring studies. Importance of N2-fixing plants has increased in last decades. Alnus (alder) is an important plant group because of its nitrogen fixation ability. Alders are generally distributed in humid locations of boreal, temperate and tropical climate zones, where the nitrogen fixation is an important nitrogen source for other plants. To model the nitrogen fixation by alder, data about the global distribution of alder is absolutely required. In this study a new method and model are presented to predict the distribution of N2-fixing genus on global scale and its migration in the future by using climate change scenarios. Three linear functions were defined for the determination of climate niche of alders. The distribution and migration model (Alnus-Distribution-Model (ADM)) was improved with the aid of the soil units from FAO-Unesco Soil Database, and vegetation types from Schmithüsen's biogeographical atlas. The model was also developed to predict the impact of climate change on alder distribution by using climate data from experiments performed by the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) including the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) mitigation scenarios, and extensions of the scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. The model covered basic approaches to understand the combine effect of climate, soil and vegetation on plant distribution and migration in the current time and future.

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSITY: A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
S. Ishaq ◽  
M. Z. Khan ◽  
F. Begum ◽  
K. Hussain ◽  
R. Amir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Special Reference ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Gap ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan ◽  
The Impact

Climate Change is not a stationary phenomenon; it moves from time to time, it represents a major threat to mountainous biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity. The present study is an attempt to identify the current knowledge gap and the effects of climate change on mountainous biodiversity, a special reference to the Gilgit-Baltistan is briefly reviewed. Measuring the impact of climate change on mountain biodiversity is quite challenging, because climate change interacts with every phenomenon of ecosystem. The scale of this change is so large and very adverse so strongly connected to ecosystem services, and all communities who use natural resources. This study aims to provide the evidences on the basis of previous literature, in particular context to mountain biodiversity of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan have most fragile ecosystem and are more vulnerable to climate change. These mountains host variety of wild fauna and flora, with many endangered species of the world. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of literature we studied because very little research has been conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan about climate change particular to biodiversity. Recommendations are made for increased research efforts in future this including jointly monitoring programs, climate change models and ecological research. Understanding the impact of climate change particular to biodiversity of GB is very important for sustainable management of these natural resources. The Government organizations, NGOs and the research agencies must fill the knowledge gap, so that it will help them for policy making, which will be based on scientific findings and research based.

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