The sensitivity of fire activity to interannual climate variability in Victoria, Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 146
Author(s):  
Sarah Harris ◽  
Neville Nicholls ◽  
Nigel Tapper ◽  
Graham Mills
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Climate Parameters ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is expected to have an impact on fire activity in many regions around the globe.The extent of this can only be determined by first establishing the relationship between climate and fire activity. This study relates observed changes in fire activity in Victoria to observed changes in antecedent and concurrent climate parameters – maximum temperature, rainfall and vapour pressure, using data for 1972–2014. A first-difference approach was adopted to estimate the amount by which the observed changes in the climate parameters would have altered the fire activity in the absence of other confounding effects. This study provides a method for examining the sensitivity of fire activity to changes in climate parameters without the need to consider the complex response of fuel dynamics to future climates and changes in fire regime or fire management. We used stepwise multiple-regression to determine the months whose climate parameters explained much of the variance in the total number of fires (TNF) and area burned in a fire season. The best performing fire–climate models explained almost two-thirds of the variation in year-to-year variability of fire activity. The significant explanatory ability of the fire–climate models established in this study reveals the combination of climate parameters that closely relates to the observed year-to-year changes in fire activity, and this may provide an additional valuable resource for fire management planning. Further, we explored the role changes in climate have had on the trend in fire activity. Natural logarithm of area burned and mean fire size have not significantly increased over the study period, but the TNF has significantly increased. We find that the observed increase in maximum temperatures and decrease in rainfall account for 26% of the observed increase in TNF for the 1972–2014 period. Therefore, most of the upward trend found in fire numbers must be due to factors other than climate (i.e. changes in fire occurrence, reporting/recording, land and fire-management changes). Additionally, this study concludes that total area burned should have also increased significantly due to the observed changes in climate and that improved fire-management practicesmay be offsetting this expected increase in the area burned. Finally, using the relationship established in this study between fire numbers and climate parameters, we estimate that a 2°C increase in mean monthly maximum temperatures could be expected to lead to a 38% increase in fire numbers.

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Magnussen ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Regional Synchrony

Year-to-year variation in fire activity in Canada constitutes a key challenge for fire management agencies. Interagency sharing of fire management resources has been ongoing on regional, national and international scales in Canada for several decades to better cope with peaks in resource demand. Inherent stressors on these schemes determined by the fire regimes in constituent jurisdictions are not well known, nor described by averages. We developed a statistical framework to examine the likelihood of regional synchrony of peaks in fire activity at a timescale of 1 week. Year-to-year variations in important fire regime variables and 48 regions in Canada are quantified by a joint distribution and profiled at the Provincial or Territorial level. The fire regime variables capture the timing of the fire season, the average number of fires, area burned, and the timing and extent of annual maxima. The onset of the fire season was strongly correlated with latitude and longitude. Regional synchrony in the timing of the maximum burned area within fire seasons delineates opportunities for and limitations to sharing of fire suppression resources during periods of stress that were quantified in Monte Carlo simulations from the joint distribution.

scholarly journals Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (48) ◽  
pp. 13684-13689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan H. Taylor ◽  
Valerie Trouet ◽  
Carl N. Skinner ◽  
Scott Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Native American ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Gold Rush ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Fire Activity

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

Alaska’s changing fire regime — implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forestsThis article is one of a selection of papers from The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming.

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1313-1324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Kasischke ◽  
David L. Verbyla ◽  
T. Scott Rupp ◽  
A. David McGuire ◽  
Karen A. Murphy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Fire Policy ◽  
Organic Layers ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
The Past ◽  
Previous Decade ◽  
In Fire

A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska’s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha·year–1 burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from human-ignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska’s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska’s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.

scholarly journals Postglacial Fire Frequency and its Relation to Long-Term Vegetational and Climatic Changes in Yellowstone Park

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 212-218
Author(s):  
Cathy Whitlock
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Modern Pollen ◽  
Pollen Rain ◽  
History Of ◽  
Fossil Records ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Relationship

The primary research objective has been to study the vegetational history of Yellowstone and its sensitivity to changes in climate and fire frequency. To establish a sequence of vegetational changes, a network of pollen records spanning the last 14,000 years has been studied from different types of vegetation within the Park. The relationship between modern pollen rain, modern vegetation and present­day climate in the northern Rocky Mountains has been the basis for interpreting past vegetation and climate from the fossil records. Changes in fire regime during the past 14,000 years have been inferred from sedimentary charcoal and other fire proxy in lake sediments. Calibration of the fire signal is based on a study that measures the input of charcoal into lakes following the 1988 fires in Yellowstone.

scholarly journals Determining the sensitivity of grassland area burned to climate variation in Xilingol, China, with an autoregressive distributed lag approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Hassan Shabbir ◽  
Jiquan Zhang ◽  
Xingpeng Liu ◽  
James A. Lutz ◽  
Carlos Valencia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Relationship

We examined the relationship between climate variables and grassland area burned in Xilingol, China, from 2001 to 2014 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and describe the application of this econometric method to studies of climate influences on wildland fire. We show that there is a stationary linear combination of non-stationary climate time series (cointegration) that can be used to reliably estimate the influence of different climate signals on area burned. Our model shows a strong relationship between maximum temperature and grassland area burned. Mean monthly wind speed and monthly hours of sunlight were also strongly associated with area burned, whereas minimum temperature and precipitation were not. Some climate variables like wind speed had significant immediate effects on area burned, the strength of which varied over the 2001–14 observation period (in econometrics terms, a ‘short-run’ effect). The relationship between temperature and area burned exhibited a steady-state or ‘long-run’ relationship. We analysed three different periods (2001–05, 2006–10 and 2011–14) to illustrate how the effects of climate on area burned vary over time. These results should be helpful in estimating the potential impact of changing climate on the eastern Eurasian Steppe.

scholarly journals An assessment of the implementation and outcomes of recent changes to fire management in the Kruger National Park

Koedoe ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian W. Van Wilgen ◽  
Navashni Govender ◽  
Sandra MacFadyen
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Kruger National Park ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Sufficient Degree ◽  
Burnt Areas ◽  
In Fire

This paper reviews recent changes in fire management in the Kruger National Park, and assesses the resulting fire patterns against thresholds of potential concern. In 2002, a lightning-driven approach was replaced by an approach that combined point ignitions with unplanned and lightning fires. The approach aimed to burn an annual target area, determined by rainfall and fuel conditions, in point-ignition fires of different sizes. Most of the original fire-related thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) were incorporated into the new approach. The annual target area to be burnt ranged from 12 to 24% of the park between 2002 and 2006. The total area burnt generally exceeded the targets each year, and management fires accounted for less than half of the total area burnt. The fire regime was dominated by very large fires (> 5 000 ha) which accounted for 77% of the total area burnt. New TPCs were developed to assess whether the fire regime encompassed a sufficient degree of variability, in terms of fire intensity and the spatial distribution of burnt areas. After assessment and adjustment, it appears that these TPCs have not yet been exceeded. The point-ignition approach, and its evaluation in terms of variability and heterogeneity, is based on the untested assumption that a diverse fire regime will promote biodiversity. This assumption needs to be critically assessed. We recommend that the practice of point ignitions be continued, but that greater efforts be made to burn larger areas earlier in the season to reduce large and intense dry-season fires.

A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Boulanger ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Philip J. Burton
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
In Fire

Broad-scale fire regime modelling is frequently based on large ecological and (or) administrative units. However, these units may not capture spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes and may thus lead to spatially inaccurate estimates of future fire activity. In this study, we defined homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones for Canada based on annual area burned (AAB) and fire occurrence (FireOcc), and we used them to model future (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) fire activity using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We identified a total of 16 HFR zones explaining 47.7% of the heterogeneity in AAB and FireOcc for the 1959–1999 period. MARS models based on HFR zones projected a 3.7-fold increase in AAB and a 3.0-fold increase in FireOcc by 2100 when compared with 1961–1990, with great interzone heterogeneity. The greatest increases would occur in zones located in central and northwestern Canada. Much of the increase in AAB would result from a sharp increase in fire activity during July and August. Ecozone- and HFR-based models projected relatively similar nationwide FireOcc and AAB. However, very high spatial discrepancies were noted between zonations over extensive areas. The proposed HFR zonation should help providing more spatially accurate estimates of future ecological patterns largely driven by fire in the boreal forest such as biodiversity patterns, energy flows, and carbon storage than those obtained from large-scale multipurpose classification units.

Fire in arctic tundra of Alaska: past fire activity, future fire potential, and significance for land management and ecology

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy H. F. French ◽  
Liza K. Jenkins ◽  
Tatiana V. Loboda ◽  
Michael Flannigan ◽  
Randi Jandt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Management ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Arctic Tundra ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Circumpolar Arctic ◽  
Average Size ◽  
In Fire

A multidecadal analysis of fire in Alaskan Arctic tundra was completed using records from the Alaska Large Fire Database. Tundra vegetation fires are defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map and divided into five tundra ecoregions of Alaska. A detailed review of fire records in these regions is presented, and an analysis of future fire potential was performed based on future climate scenarios. The average size of tundra fire based on the data record is 22 km2 (5454 acres). Fires show a mean size of 10 km2 (2452 acres) and median of 0.064 km2 (16 acres), indicating small fires are common. Although uncommon, 16 fires larger than 300 km2 (74 132 acres) have been recorded across four ecoregions and all five decades. Warmer summers with extended periods of drying are expected to increase fire activity as indicated by fire weather index. The implications of the current fire regime and potential changes in fire regime are discussed in the context of land management and ecosystem services. Current fire management practices and land-use planning in Alaska should be specifically tailored to the tundra region based on the current fire regime and in anticipation of the expected change in fire regime projected with climate change.

Fire effects on seed relaease and the emergence and establishment of seedlings in Banksia ericifolia. L.f

1981 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 521 ◽  
Author(s):  
RA Bradstock ◽  
PJ Myerscough
Keyword(s):  
Seed Bank ◽  
Seedling Emergence ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Temperature ◽  
Banksia Ericifolia ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Relationship

Fire intensity and seasonality affected the release of seed in Banksia ericifolia L.f, and the post-fire emergence of seedlings. Mean maximum temperatures recorded in a heathland burn in May 1977 at heights of 0.5, 2 and 3 m were about 400, 275 and 175°C respectively. Variability in maximum temperature was dependent on the age and position of B. ericifolia stands. Release of seed held on B. ericifolia bushes increased significantly after fire. The proportion of seed released on unburnt controls stayed constant. Seeds were released earlier and quicker from cones exposed to high fire temperature maxima than from those exposed to low fire temperature maxima. Up to 80% of the seed bank was released 95 days after the fire. A greater proportion of the seed bank emerged and established as seedlings 5 months after the fire in May than after a fire the previous February. Seedling emergence and mortality were broadly related to rainfall over this period. The relationship between various fire regimes and abundance in B. ericifolia populations is discussed.

Delivering effective savanna fire management for defined biodiversity conservation outcomes: an Arnhem Land case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Evans ◽  
Jeremy Russell-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Arnhem Land ◽  
Ecological Threshold ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

Given the recent history of frequent and extensive late dry season wildfire in Australia’s fire-prone northern savannas, regional conservation-based fire management programs typically aim to mitigate wildfire through the use of strategic prescribed burning during the cooler early dry season. However, it remains unclear as to the extent such environmental management concerns are being addressed by these renewed fire management efforts. This study documents changes in fire regime in the western Arnhem Land region of northern Australia associated with the implementation of active fire management since 2006. Over a 12-year period, the regional fire regime has transitioned from late dry season, wildfire-dominated to being characterised by a majority of fires occurring as small early dry season prescribed burns. Although overall area burnt has not significantly decreased, most ecological threshold metrics have improved, with the exception of those describing the maintenance of longer-unburnt habitat. Challenges involved with defining, delivering, monitoring and evaluating heterogeneity targets are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document