scholarly journals Annual climate summary Australia (2016): strong El Niño gives way to strong negative IOD.

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Skie Tobin ◽  
Phillip Reid ◽  
Elaine Miles

Australian climate patterns and associated anomalies during 2016 are reviewed, with reference to relevant climate drivers for the Australian region. 2016 was the fourth-warmest year on record for Australia (annual anomaly of +0.87 °C), and the warmest year on record for the globe (the third year running that a new record has been set). Annual rainfall was above average for most of Australia, but below average for areas of the northern coasts between the Gascoyne in Western Australia and Townsville in Queensland, and pockets of coastal southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.The very strong 2015–16 El Niño contributed to a very warm and dry first quarter. Autumn was the warmest on record nationally, with a significant nationwide heatwave occurring in late February to mid-March and bushfires at the start of the year in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia. In May the El Niño broke down and rainfall increased as a very strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole developed, lasting until November. While the central tropical Pacific approached La Niña thresholds during spring, a La Niña did not develop. The Southern Annual Mode commenced the year in a generally positive phase, was strongly positive in June and September, and was following by a strongly negative phase from late October until the end of the year.The period from May to September was record wet, relieving areas of drought in Queensland and southeastern Australia, but also causing flooding in multiple states. The last three months of the year saw a return to near-average rainfall and, while October and November were cooler than average for large areas, December was very warm for the eastern states.Ocean temperatures were also record warm for the Australian region during 2016, with an annual anomaly of +0.73 °C. Temperatures were particularly high during the first half of the year and resulted in widespread severe coral bleaching.

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 1139-1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott B. Power ◽  
Jeff Callaghan

AbstractThe variability in the number of severe floods that occurred in coastal catchments in southeastern Australia since the mid–nineteenth century, along with the variability in both the frequency of the weather types that triggered the floods and the associated death tolls, is analyzed. Previous research has shown that all of the severe floods identified were associated with one of two major weather types: east coast lows (ECLs) and tropical interactions (TIs). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is shown to strongly modulate the frequency of severe coastal flooding, weather types, and the number of associated deaths. The analysis presented herein, which examines links over more than a century, provides one of very few known statistically significant links between ENSO and death tolls anywhere in the world. Over the period 1876/77–2013/14 the average numbers of coastal floods, ECLs, TIs, and deaths associated with freshwater drowning in La Niña years are 92%, 55%, 150%, and 220% higher than the corresponding averages in El Niño years. The average number of deaths per flood in La Niña years is 3.2, which is 66% higher than the average in El Niño years. Death tolls of 10 or more occurred in only 5% of El Niño years, but in 27% of La Niña years. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also modulates the frequency of severe floods, weather types, and death tolls. The results of this study are consistent with earlier research over shorter periods and broader regions, using less-complete datasets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3173
Author(s):  
Gabriel Italo Novaes da Silva ◽  
Pedro José Hermínio ◽  
Antonio Gebson Pinheiro ◽  
Alexandre Maniçoba Da Rosa Ferraz Jardim ◽  
Renan Matheus Cordeiro Leite ◽  
...  

Este trabalho utilizou uma série de dados de precipitação referente ao período de 1973 à 2010 para o município de Castanhal-PA com a finalidade de investigar: 1) os padrões de precipitação; 2) as mudanças de tendência; 3) a ocorrência dos eventos de déficit e excesso de água pelo uso do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e suas relações com fenômenos atmosféricos como El Niño e La Niña; 4) a associação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência das chuvas e o tempo de retorno (TR). Para tanto, utilizaram-se dados de chuva obtidos em uma estação pluviométrica da Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). Os dados foram analisados por períodos, tendo sido considerados os intervalos: mensais, trimestrais, anuais ou decadais realizando estatística descritiva, para entendimento da variação sazonal, valores médios, análise da tendência por meio do teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall e da ocorrência de valores extremos associados à probabilidade de ocorrência e tempo de retorno. Nossos resultados demonstraram que: a média anual de precipitação para o período estudado foi de 2573,15mm; o intervalo de 2003-2010 foi aquele de menor variação nos valores de precipitação anual. Não foram observadas tendências nos valores de precipitação durante o período analisado. O SPI-1 mostrou boa adequabilidade a ocorrência dos valores extremos de precipitação no local em alguns casos associado aos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña. O maior (4.709,4 mm) e menor (1.379,6 mm) volume de chuva foram observados nos anos de 1994 e 1981, respectivamente, com probabilidade de ocorrência de 3% e TR = 39 anos.    Understanding the Characteristics Associated with Precipitation for a Northeastern Region of Pará: An Analysis of Behavior, Tendency, Extreme Events and Time of Return for the 1973-2010 period A B S T R A C TThis work used a series of precipitation data for the period 1973 to 2010 for the municipality of Castanhal-PA in order to investigate: 1) precipitation patterns; 2) changes in trend; 3) the occurrence of deficit and excess water events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its relationship with atmospheric phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña; 4) the association between the probability of rain occurrence and the return time (TR). For this purpose, rainfall data obtained from a rainfall station of the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) were used. Data were analyzed by periods, considering the intervals: monthly, quarterly, annual or decadal performing descriptive statistics, to understand seasonal variation, mean values, trend analysis using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the occurrence of extreme values associated with the probability of occurrence and turnaround time. Our results showed that: the mean annual rainfall for the period studied was 2573.15mm; the 2003-2010 interval was the one with the smallest variation in annual precipitation values. There were no trends in precipitation values during the analyzed period. SPI-1 showed good suitability for the occurrence of extreme precipitation values at the site in some cases associated with the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. The highest (4,709.4 mm) and lowest (1,379.6 mm) volume of rainfall were observed in 1994 and 1981, respectively, with a probability of occurrence of 3% and TR = 39 years.Keywords: Rainfall; Droughts; Floods; Atmospheric phenomena.


Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Adilson Pacheco Souza ◽  
Carla Aparecida Ascoli ◽  
Eduardo Morgan Uliana ◽  
Frederico Terra de Almeida ◽  
Bruno Henrique Casavecchia

A quantidade e as distribuições espaciais e temporais das chuvas determinam o tipo de vegetação natural, potencialidades de exploração agropecuária e disponibilidade de recursos hídricos. Todavia, as chuvas estão diretamente relacionadas com a circulação geral da atmosfera (CGA) e com as mudanças nos seus comportamentos. Em escala global, a maior influência é decorrente do modo de variabilidade climático denominado de El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS) e suas diferentes fases/intensidades (El Niño – EN; La Niña - LN), que determinam as anomalias de chuva em diversas regiões. Diante da grande aptidão agropecuária do estado de Mato Grosso (MT), objetivou-se avaliar as influências do EN e LN para as bacias hidrográficas dos Rios Juruena, Teles Pires e Xingu, situados na região Amazônica. As regiões das nascentes (Alto) das três bacias apresentam similaridade nos totais anuais de chuva. As diferentes intensidades de EN e LN influenciaram de forma significativa nos índices de chuva anual na bacia do Rio Teles Pires. EN-Forte provoca reduções nos totais anuais de chuvas nas regiões baixas (foz) das três bacias hidrográficas. LN-Forte aumentou as chuvas anuais independentemente da região do rio Teles Pires. LN-moderado reduz os totais anuais de chuva independentemente da bacia hidrográfica.Palavra-chave: bacias hidrográficas, variabilidade climática, distribuição espacial. ENOS INFLUENCE IN THE ANNUAL RAINS OF THE REGION AMAZON OF MATO GROSSO STATE ABSTRACT:The amount and spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall determine the type of natural vegetation, agricultural exploration potential and availability of water resources. However, the rainfall are directly dependents to the general circulation of the atmosphere and changes in your behavior. On a global scale, the major influences are the result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its different phases/intensities (El Niño - EN; La Niña - LN), which determine the precipitation anomalies in several regions. Given the large agricultural faculty of Mato Grosso State, Brazil, aimed to evaluate the influence of EN and LN phenomena for the watershed of the rivers Juruena, Teles Pires and Xingu, located in the Amazon region. The regions of the sources of river (High) of the three watershed have similarity in total annual rainfall. The different intensities of EN and LN cause greater influence in the rates of annual rainfall in the Teles Pires Watershed. EN-Intensive causes reductions in total annual rainfall in the lowlands (mouth rivers) of the three watersheds. LN-Intensive provides increase in annual rainfall regardless of the Teles Pires River region. LN-moderate reduces the total annual rainfall regardless of the watershed.Keywords: watersheds, climatic variability, spatial distribution. DOI:


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 5139-5149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Weller ◽  
Wenju Cai

Abstract Recent studies have shown that the impact of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on southern Australia occurs via equivalent barotropic Rossby wave trains triggered by convective heating in the tropical Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on southern Australian climate is exerted through the same pathway during austral spring. It is also noted that positive phase [positive IOD (pIOD) and El Niño] events have a much larger impact associated with their respective skewness. These phenomena play a significant role in the region's rainfall reduction in recent decades, and it is essential that climate models used for future projections simulate these features. Here, the authors demonstrate that climate models do indeed simulate a greater climatic impact on Australia for pIOD events than for negative IOD (nIOD) events, but this asymmetric impact is distorted by an exaggerated influence of La Niña emanating from the Pacific. The distortion results from biases in the Pacific in two respects. First, the tropical and extratropical response to La Niña is situated unrealistically too far westward and hence too close to Australia, leading to an overly strong impact on southeast Australia that shows up through the nIOD–La Niña coherence. Second, the majority of models simulate a positive sea surface temperature skewness in the eastern Pacific that is too weak, overestimating the impact of La Niña relative to that of El Niño. As such, the impact of the positive asymmetry in the IOD only becomes apparent when the impact of ENSO is removed. This model bias needs to be taken into account when analyzing projections of regional Australian climate change.


Author(s):  
M. Vengateswari ◽  
V. Geethalakshmi ◽  
K. Bhuvaneswari ◽  
S. Panneerselvam

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Several factors are responsible for recent climatic anomalies includes seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall in the region in which regional and global sea surface temperature (SST) changes is the most significant factor. It is well recognized that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal to inter-annual scales and its impacts are felt worldwide. Seasonal to inter-annual rainfall fluctuations strongly affect the success of agriculture and the abundance of water resources. Daily rainfall data at district scale was obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for a period of 43 years (1971&amp;ndash;2013) was categorized based on the ENSO episodes and the analysis was performed for the rainfed cropping period (RCP, September&amp;ndash;December). A week (7 days) with the cumulative rainfall amount of 50&amp;thinsp;mm was considered as one wet spell. Non rainy days observed continuously for a decade (10 days) that period was considered to be one dry spell. Results revealed that El Niño conditions positively influenced the rainfall. Compared to neutral years, La Niña years received less rainfall as it showed the negative deviation in most of districts of Tamil Nadu. More wet spell and lesser dry spell weeks was observed under El Niño condition while the lesser wet spell and more dry spell was observed under La Niña conditions. Higher amount of rainfall during El Niño led to more number of wet spells under El Niño event.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-246
Author(s):  
Fanni Aditya ◽  
Evi Gusmayanti ◽  
Jajat Sudrajat

Variabilitas curah hujan sangat erat kaitannya dengan perubahan iklim di suatu wilayah dan analisisnya sangat berguna dalam mengukur ketersediaan air untuk pertanian khususnya padi sawah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis variabilitas curah hujan dan hubungan curah hujan tahunan terhadap produktivitas padi di Kalimantan Barat.  Lokasi penelitian difokuskan di wilayah Kabupaten Mempawah dan Kubu Raya dengan menggunakan data yang tersedia pada tahun 2000-2019. Analisis datanya menggunakan persamaan variabilitas dan dilanjutkan dengan analisis korelasi dan komposit. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabilitas curah hujan tahunan di Mempawah dan Kubu Raya termasuk dalam kategori rendah. Nilai variabilitas bulanan menunjukkan rentang yang bervariasi dari rendah hingga ekstrem di setiap lokasi. El Nino memiliki dampak negatif yang kuat terhadap curah hujan pada periode Juni-Juli-Agustus (JJA) dan September-Oktober-November (SON), sedangkanLa Nina memiliki dampak positif yang kuat terhadap curah hujan pada periode Juni-Juli-Agustus. Pada periode Desember-Januari-Februari (DJF) dan Maret-April-Mei (MAM), El Nino (La Nina) memiliki efek terhadap peningkatan (pengurangan) curah hujan. Dipole Mode Positif memberikan dampak pengurangan curah hujan pada periode SON dan MAM. Dipole Mode Negatif memberikan dampak bervariasi pada curah hujan pada periode JJA, SON dan DJF. Hubungan signifikan antara curah hujan tahunan dan produktivitas padi hanya ditunjukkan di Sungai Kunyit dan Sungai Kakap. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa curah hujan tahunan secara umum tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas padi di sebagian besar wilayah penelitian. ABSTRACTRainfall variability is closely related to climate change in a particular region and it is useful in estimating the water availability for agriculture, especially lowland rice. This study examines the rainfall variability and correlation between annual rainfall and rice productivity in West Kalimantan. The research location is focused on the Mempawah and Kubu Raya districts in 2000-2019. The variability equation accompanied by correlation and composite analysis was used in the analysis. The result shows that the variability of annual rainfall in Mempawah and Kubu Raya falls in the low category. Monthly rainfall variability values mark a range that varies from low to extreme at each location. El Nino had a substantial negative impact on rainfall in the June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November SON period. While, La Nina had a positive impact on rainfall only in the JJA period. In the December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM) period, El Nino (La Nina) has an anomalous effect on increasing (reducing) rainfall. Positive Dipole Mode gives the negative impact in the SON dan MAM period. Negative Dipole Mode has a varied impact on rainfall in the JJA, SON and DJF periods. The significant corellation between annual rainfall and rice productivity was shown only at Sungai Kunyit and Sungai Kakap. This indicates that the annual rainfall generally has no significant effect on rice productivity in most areas.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 680
Author(s):  
Milla Nobrega de Menezes Costa ◽  
Carmem Terezinha Becker ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito

O estado da Paraíba apresenta cerca de 76% do seu território abrangido pela região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, incluindo 170 dos 223 municípios, dentre estes, estão os municípios de Antenor Navarro atual São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Catolé do Rocha e Soledade que se sobressaem como importantes polos agrícolas e econômicos do estado, e que frequentemente são afetados pela alta variabilidade climática. Neste trabalho, foi analisado para estes 4 municípios a distribuição pluviométrica num período de cem anos (de 1911 até o ano de 2010) verificando as variações e/ou tendências nas suas séries temporais e investigando se existe uma relação entre a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP) com a pluviometria anual das 4 localidades. A partir dos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que São João do Rio do Peixe tem a maior média pluviométrica, porém a tendência de sua série temporal apresentando-se negativa, em contraposto aos outros municípios que apresentaram médias pluviométricas menores, porém com tendências positivas. A investigação da influência da ODP na precipitação anual normalizada das séries analisadas mostrou que uma parcela da ODP influência na variabilidade pluviométrica, porém depende da sua intensidade e de outros fatores tais como o dipolo do Atlântico Tropical e eventos de El Niño/La Niña, indicando que maiores investigações devem ser feitas. A B S T R A C T The state of Paraíba has about 76% of its territory covered by the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, including 170 of the 223 municipalities, among these are the municipalities of Antenor Navarro current São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Soledade and Catolé that stand out as important agricultural and economic centers of the state, which are often affected by high climatic variability. This work was analyzed for these four counties rainfall distribution over one hundred years (1911 until 2010) verifying the changes and / or trends in their series and investigating whether there is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( ODP) with annual rainfall of 4 locations. From the results obtained, it was found that St. John's River Fish has the highest average rainfall, but the tendency of his series showed up negative in opposed to other municipalities that had lower average rainfall, but with positive trends. The investigation of the influence of PDO on normalized annual rainfall series analyzed, showed that a portion of the ODP influence on rainfall variability, but depends on their strength and other factors such as the Tropical Atlantic dipole and El Niño / La Niña, indicating that further investigations should be made.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document