Modelling climate change impacts on early and late harvest grassland systems in Portugal

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (8) ◽  
pp. 821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenyao Yang ◽  
Helder Fraga ◽  
Wim van Ieperen ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
The South ◽  
Growing Season Length

Climate change projections for Portugal showed warming and drying trends, representing a substantial threat for the sustainability of forage production in perennial grassland. The objective of the present study was to assess climate change impacts on seasonal dry matter yield (DMY) in three locations (North-west-, Central-inner and South-Portugal) with different climatic conditions, for two grassland production systems deviating in growing season length, either early cuts in spring (ES) or late cuts in summer (LS). Impacts were estimated using the STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) crop model, by comparing a historical baseline period (1985–2006) with simulated projections over future periods (2021–2080). For this purpose, the STICS crop model was driven by high-resolution climate data from a coupled Global Climate Model/Regional Climate Model chain. As a result, we obtained that, during the baseline period, DMY of LS was consistently much higher than that of ES in all three locations. For LS, significant reductions in mean DMY were forecasted during 2061–2080, ranging from mild (–13%) in the north to severe (–31%) in the south of Portugal. In contrast, seasonal DMY was largely maintained for ES among sites until 2080, benefiting from low water deficits, the expected atmospheric CO2 rise and the forecasted temperature increase during cool season. Thus, the yield gap was projected to gradually decrease between the two regimes, in which mean DMY for ES was foreseen to exceed that of LS over 2061–2080 in the southern site. Moreover, ES was projected to have very low exposure to extreme heat and severe water stresses. Conversely, LS, subjected to high summer water deficit and irrigation needs, was projected to experience increased summertime water stress (9–11%) and drastically increased heat stress (33–57%) in 2061–2080, with more pronounced heat stress occurring in the south. Frequency of occurrence of extreme heat stress was projected to gradually increase in summer over successive study periods, with a concomitant increased intensity of DMY response to inter-annual variability of heat stress during 2061–2080. Heat stress tended to be more important than water stress under the prescribed irrigation strategy for LS, potentially being the main limiting factor for summertime DMY production under climate change scenario.

Including the Impact of Climate Change in Offshore and Onshore Metocean Design Criteria to Ensure Asset Robustness

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Brown ◽  
Ag Stephens ◽  
Ben Rabb ◽  
Richenda Connell ◽  
Jon Upton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Design Criteria ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While a significant amount of attention surrounding climate change has focused on mitigation of the causes, there is growing interest and need to adapt to physical climate change impacts which are already being experienced and in anticipation of future changes. Changes in climate have the potential to create hazards in the oil and gas sector although vulnerabilities to these changes are often specific to asset types. Preparedness for climate change can help to reduce damaging effects from acute as well as chronic climate changes. This paper focuses on a simple approach developed to ensure that climate change is included in engineering design, by considering climate change risk and the uncertainty inherent in future projections of climate change into design requirements. It involves using the best available climate change data and an understanding of the relationships between asset performance and environmental (climate-related) conditions. The risk level associated with climate change for a specific asset is determined by consideration of the severity and confidence level of the climate change hazard, the exposure of the asset to the hazard, the vulnerability of the exposed asset to the hazard and the capacity of the asset to adapt to the hazard. The method considers the risk levels, the selection of climate model data, the ‘natural variability’ baseline period to be applied to the climate change data, the climate change model validation, the asset life time and specifically how to modify metocean design criteria to account for climate change to ensure both the ‘start of life’ criteria (typically derived from observed and hindcast data) and ‘end of life’ criteria (including an estimate for the impact of climate change at the end of the asset life) meet the required annual probability of exceedance.

scholarly journals Implications of climate model biases and downscaling on crop model simulated climate change impacts

2017 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 63-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cammarano ◽  
M. Rivington ◽  
K.B. Matthews ◽  
D.G. Miller ◽  
G. Bellocchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Simulated Climate Change

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in a Mountainous Mediterranean Catchment (Central Pindus, Greece)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanos Stefanidis ◽  
Dimitrios Stathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Potential Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Mountainous Catchment ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The aim of this study was to assess soil erosion changes in the mountainous catchment of the Portaikos torrent (Central Greece) under climate change. To this end, precipitation and temperature data were derived from a high-resolution (25 × 25 km) RegCM3 regional climate model for the baseline period 1974–2000 and future period 2074–2100. Additionally, three GIS layers were generated regarding land cover, geology, and slopes in the study area, whereas erosion state was recognized after field observations. Subsequently, the erosion potential model (EPM) was applied to quantify the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on soil erosion. The results showed a decrease (−21.2%) in annual precipitation (mm) and increase (+3.6 °C) in mean annual temperature until the end of the 21st century, and the above changes are likely to lead to a small decrease (−4.9%) in soil erosion potential.

scholarly journals Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

scholarly journals Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quy Giang ◽  
Tran Trung Vy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Economic Damage

In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals The Response of Spring Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) to Climate Change in Northern Serbia

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milena Daničić ◽  
Vladislav Zekić ◽  
Milan Mirosavljević ◽  
Branislava Lalić ◽  
Marina Putnik-Delić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spring Barley ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Hordeum Vulgare L ◽  
Sowing Time ◽  
Feasibility Assessment ◽  
Climate Analysis

The present study assessed the effect of projected climate change on the sowing time, onset, and duration of flowering, the duration of the growing season, and the grain yield of spring barley in Northern Serbia. An AquaCrop simulation covered two climate model integration periods (2001–2030 and 2071–2100) using a dual-step approach (with and without irrigation). After considering the effect of climate change on barley production, the economic benefit of future supplemental irrigation was assessed. The model was calibrated and validated using observed field data (2006–2014), and the simulation’s outcomes for future scenarios were compared to those of the baseline period (1971–2000) that was used for the expected climate analysis. The results showed that the projected features of barley production for the 2001–2030 period did not differ much from current practice in this region. On the contrary, for the 2071–2100 period, barley was expected to be sown earlier, to prolong its vegetation, and to shorten flowering’s duration. Nevertheless, its yield was expected to remain stable. An economic feasibility assessment of irrigation in the future indicated a negative income, which is why spring barley will most likely remain rain-fed under future conditions.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

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