scholarly journals Implications of risk attitude and climate change for optimal grassland management: a case study for Switzerland

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Finger ◽  
Pierluigi Calanca ◽  
Simon Briner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Grassland Management ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Application Rates ◽  
Yield Quality

We present a bio-economic model by combining a process-based grassland simulation model with an economic decision model that accounts for income risks and yield quality. The model is used to examine optimal nitrogen (N) application rates in a grass–clover system in Switzerland under current and future climatic conditions. Results for present-day climatic conditions suggest that an increase in N inputs has positive effects on yields but also leads to higher yield variability, yield distributions more skewed to the left and therefore higher downside risks. As a result, accounting for farmers’ risk aversion in solving the optimisation problem leads to lower optimal N inputs. Simulations with a climate change scenario that predicts higher temperatures throughout the year and lower rainfall amounts during the growing season indicate higher yields, increasing yield variability, and changes in yield quality. By allowing herbage prices to vary as a function of yield quality, we find overall lower optimal N inputs and more marked effects of risk aversion on optimal N levels under climate change than under present conditions. However, disregarding yield quality in solving the optimisation problem gives higher optimal N inputs under future conditions.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dan-Dan Yu ◽  
Shan Li ◽  
Zhong-Yang Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

scholarly journals A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 767-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
W. J. J. van Pelt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Model Study

Abstract. The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year−1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and −20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

scholarly journals Changes in Proline Levels during Seed Development of Orthodox and Recalcitrant Seeds of Genus Acer in a Climate Change Scenario

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1362
Author(s):  
Joanna Kijowska-Oberc ◽  
Aleksandra M. Staszak ◽  
Mikołaj K. Wawrzyniak ◽  
Ewelina Ratajczak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seed Development ◽  
Desiccation Tolerance ◽  
Seed Viability ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Proline Content ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Acer Pseudoplatanus ◽  
Recalcitrant Seeds ◽  
Seed Desiccation

In the present study, we examined the utility of proline usage as a biochemical indicator of metabolic changes caused by climate change (mean temperature and precipitation) during seed development of two Acer species differing in desiccation tolerance: Norway maple (Acer platanoides L.—desiccation tolerant—orthodox) and sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.—desiccation sensitive—recalcitrant). In plants, proline is an element of the antioxidant system, which has a role in response to water loss and high temperatures. Our study considered whether proline could be treated as an indicator of tree seed viability, crucial for genetic resources conservation. Proline content was measured biweekly in developing seeds (between 11 and 23 weeks after flowering) collected in consecutive years (2017, 2018, and 2019). We showed that proline concentrations in recalcitrant seeds were positively correlated with mean two-week temperature. In contrast, in orthodox seeds no such relationship was found. Proline content proved to be sensitive to thermal-moisture conditions changes, which makes it a promising biochemical marker of seed desiccation tolerance in different climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie Staal ◽  
Ingo Fetzer ◽  
Lan Wang-Erlandsson ◽  
Joyce H. C. Bosmans ◽  
Stefan C. Dekker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Severe Climate Change ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

scholarly journals Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 858
Author(s):  
Deiziane Gomes dos Santos ◽  
Caroline Corrêa de Souza Coelho ◽  
Anna Beatriz Robottom Ferreira ◽  
Otniel Freitas-Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
World Market ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Coffee Production

Brazil holds a series of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production including the hours and intensity of sunlight, the availability of agricultural land and water resources, as well as diverse climates, soils and biomes. Amidst such diversity, Brazilian coffee producers have obtained various standards of qualities and aromas, between the arabica and robusta species, which each present a wide variety of lineages. However, temperatures in coffee producing municipalities in Brazil have increased by about 0.25 °C per decade and annual precipitation has decreased. Therefore, the agricultural sector may face serious challenges in the upcoming decades due to crop sensitivity to water shortages and thermal stress. Furthermore, higher temperatures may reduce the quality of the culture and increase pressure from pests and diseases, reducing worldwide agricultural production. The impacts of climate change directly affect the coffee microbiota. Within the climate change scenario, aflatoxins, which are more toxic than OTA, may become dominant, promoting greater food insecurity surrounding coffee production. Thus, closer attention on the part of authorities is fundamental to stimulate replacement of areas that are apt for coffee production, in line with changes in climate zoning, in order to avoid scarcity of coffee in the world market.

scholarly journals The impact of environmental factors on the protein content and yield of maize grain at different nutrient supply levels

2018 ◽  
pp. 764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrienn Széles, Éva Horváth, Attila Vad, Endre Harsányi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protein Content ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Yield Decrease

Climate change poses a new challenge for maize producers which calls for the re-thinking of each production technological element. Professional nutrient replenishment may represent an alternative for the mitigation of yield decrease caused by climate change by means of improving yield stability from the aspect of global food safety, as well as increasing yield and improving yield quality. In the course of a  six-year (2011-2016) research, under changing climatic conditions we studied how different fertilization methods - 11 different N doses (0-300 kg ha-1) - affect the productivity of maize and protein content of grains.The experiment was carried out in Hungary (47o 33’ N, 21o 26’ E, asl: 111 m) in the long-term experiment of the University of Debrecen.

scholarly journals Modifications of Grapevine Berry Composition Induced by Main Viral and Fungal Pathogens in a Climate Change Scenario

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Rienth ◽  
Nicolas Vigneron ◽  
Robert P. Walker ◽  
Simone Diego Castellarin ◽  
Crystal Sweetman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Grape Berry ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Berry Quality ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grapevine Berry ◽  
The Impact

The grapevine is subject to high number of fungal and viral diseases, which are responsible for important economic losses in the global wine sector every year. These pathogens deteriorate grapevine berry quality either directly via the modulation of fruit metabolic pathways and the production of endogenous compounds associated with bad taste and/or flavor, or indirectly via their impact on vine physiology. The most common and devastating fungal diseases in viticulture are gray mold, downy mildew (DM), and powdery mildew (PM), caused, respectively by Botrytis cinerea, Plasmopara viticola, and Erysiphe necator. Whereas B. cinerea mainly infects and deteriorates the ripening fruit directly, deteriorations by DM and PM are mostly indirect via a reduction of photosynthetic leaf area. Nevertheless, mildews can also infect berries at certain developmental stages and directly alter fruit quality via the biosynthesis of unpleasant flavor compounds that impair ultimate wine quality. The grapevine is furthermore host of a wide range of viruses that reduce vine longevity, productivity and berry quality in different ways. The most widespread virus-related diseases, that are known nowadays, are Grapevine Leafroll Disease (GLRD), Grapevine Fanleaf Disease (GFLD), and the more recently characterized grapevine red blotch disease (GRBD). Future climatic conditions are creating a more favorable environment for the proliferation of most virus-insect vectors, so the spread of virus-related diseases is expected to increase in most wine-growing regions. However, the impact of climate change on the evolution of fungal disease pressure will be variable and depending on region and pathogen, with mildews remaining certainly the major phytosanitary threat in most regions because their development rate is to a large extent temperature-driven. This paper aims to provide a review of published literature on most important grapevine fungal and viral pathogens and their impact on grape berry physiology and quality. Our overview of the published literature highlights gaps in our understanding of plant-pathogen interactions, which are valuable for conceiving future research programs dealing with the different pathogens and their impacts on grapevine berry quality and metabolism.

Can intercropping stabilize yields in the face of climatic changes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Vico ◽  
Martin Weih ◽  
Herman NC Berghuijs
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Faba Bean ◽  
Pure Culture ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Unit Area ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
The Face

<p>Intercropping has been proposed as a way to reduce some of the negative consequences of intensive agriculture while maintaining or enhancing crop yields. Not only yields can be increased in intercrops, but they can also be more stable in the face of variable climatic conditions, offering an avenue of climate change adaptation. Nevertheless, exploiting the benefits of intercropping requires determining what the most appropriate members of the plant team are, and matching plant team and management to the local pedoclimatic conditions. Process-based mathematical models can complement field experiments to quantify via numerical simulations the performance of a variety of combinations of plant teams, management, and pedoclimatic conditions. These models are particularly useful when exploring the potential advantages of intercropping under climate change. Here we use the newly developed model M3 (Minimalist Mixture Model; Berghuijs et al, <em>Plant and Soil</em>, 2020) to simulate the biomass and grain yields of pure culture or intercropping systems, as a function of plant traits, management and environmental conditions. Focusing on wheat and faba bean grown in pure culture and intercrop in the Netherlands and Central Sweden, we quantified crop yields and their stability over the period 1951-2100, exploiting modelled climatic data series. We found large interannual variability in yields both on a per unit area and per plant basis, mostly due to the interannual variability in weather conditions. On a per unit area basis, yield differences between crops and cropping systems are consistent under historical and future climatic conditions. However, under future climatic conditions, the yields per plant were lower in faba bean, but not in wheat. Overall, pure cultures benefitted from future climatic conditions, while intercrops appeared to be negatively affected. Moreover, climate change increased yield variability in both crops and cropping systems. Therefore, against expectations, intercropping does not necessarily reduce yield variability with respect to pure culture</p>

scholarly journals Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie Staal ◽  
Ingo Fetzer ◽  
Lan Wang-Erlandsson ◽  
Joyce Bosmans ◽  
Stefan Dekker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Severe Climate Change ◽  
The Tropics

<p>Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks on different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here we present the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the range of possible forest distributions especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest lacks resilience, but gains it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.</p>

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