Use of productivity-defined indicators to assess exposure of grassland-based livestock systems to climate change and variability

2013 ◽  
Vol 64 (7) ◽  
pp. 641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Sautier ◽  
Michel Duru ◽  
Roger Martin-Clouaire
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Livestock Systems ◽  
Agricultural Production Systems

Climate change research that aims to accelerate the adaptation process of agricultural production systems first requires understanding their climatic vulnerability, which is in part characterised by their exposure. This paper’s approach moves beyond traditional metrics of climate variables and proposes specific indicators for grassland-based livestock systems. The indicators focus on the variation in seasonal boundaries and seasonal and yearly herbage productivity in response to weather conditions. The paper shows how statistical interpretations of these indicators over several sites and climatic years (past and future) enable the characterisation of classes of climatic years and seasons as well as their frequencies of occurrence and their variation from the past to the expected future. The frequency of occurrence and succession of seasonal extremes is also examined by analysing the difference between observed or predicted seasonal productivity and past mean productivity. The data analysis and corresponding statistical graphics used in our approach can help farmers, advisers, and scientists envision site-specific impacts of climate change on herbage production patterns. An illustrative analysis is performed on three sites in south-western France using a series of climatic years covering two 30-year periods in the past and the future. We found that the herbage production of several clusters of climatic years can be identified as ‘normal’ (i.e. frequent) and that the most frequent clusters in the past become less common in the future, although some clusters remain common. In addition, the year-to-year variability and the contrast between spring and summer–fall (autumn) herbage production are expected to increase.

scholarly journals The Transformation of Historical Time: Processual and Evental Temporalities

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 219-246
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Philosophy Of History ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Positive Meaning ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Modern Era

The author takes on two interrelated tasks. The first is to justify the philosophy of history as an intellectual enterprise for the modern era and one which is dedicated to finding a positive meaning in the changes that occur within humanity as it moves from the past toward the future. The viability of that enterprise has been called into question by the catastrophes of the twentieth century. The second task is to propose a new concept of historical temporality instead of the “processual” one that was discredited in the previous century. Simon maintains that we are now living in a period similar to the “saddle time” (from 1750 to 1850) described by Reinhart Koselleck. The difference between that period and the current one lies in the replacement of the “processual” temporality that was established in that earlier time by an “evental” temporality, whose structure this article is intended to explain. The future plays a key role in the structure of evental temporality. The future no longer denotes the perspective that maps out the direction of historical changes but is instead synonymous with changes as such — changes so radical that the continued existence of mankind within its former ecological, biological and physiological boundaries is at stake. The author illustrates these changes with references to bioengineering, artificial intelligence, anthropogenic climate change, etc. Expectations about these changes are utopian and dystopian at the same time and can feed one’s wildest hopes and fantasies as well as inspire the darkest fears and dreads. In any case, these changes themselves are in no way determined by the previous course of history. The future they point to undermines the continuity of human experience because it is completely independent of the past.

Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Weight Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Difference

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

Invited review: Importance of animal health and welfare for the stability of the three pillars of sustainability of livestock systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-214
Author(s):  
P. Chemineau
Keyword(s):  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Strong Interactions ◽  
Essential Components ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Livestock Systems

The future livestock systems at the world level will have to produce more in the perspective of the population increase in the next 30 years, whereas reducing their environmental footprint and addressing societal concerns. In that perspective, we may wonder if animal health and animal welfare, which are two essential components of production systems, may play an important role in the stability of the three pillars of sustainability of the livestock systems. We already know that objectives driven by economy, environment and society may modify animal welfare and animal health, but is the reverse true? The answer is yes and in 11 cases out of 12 of the matrix health-welfare×3 pillars of sustainability×positive or negative change, we have many examples indicating that animal health and animal welfare are able to modify, positively or negatively, the three pillars of sustainability. Moreover, we also have good examples of strong interactions between health and welfare. These elements play in favour of an holistic approach at the farm level and of a multicriterial definition of what could be the sustainable systems of animal production in the future which will respect animal welfare and maintain a good animal health.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

scholarly journals Simono Daukanto BUDĄ Senowęs-Letuwiu Kalnienu ĩr Ƶamajtiu (1845) šaltiniai

2020 ◽  
pp. 217-248
Author(s):  
Roma Bončkutė
Keyword(s):  
National Identity ◽  
Cultural History ◽  
Comparative Linguistics ◽  
Language And Culture ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Regional Historiography

SOURCES OF SIMONAS DAUKANTAS’S BUDĄ SENOWĘS-LËTUWIÛ KALNIENÛ ĨR ƵÁMAJTIÛ (1845) The article investigates Simonas Daukantas’s (1793–1864) BUDĄ Senowęs-Lëtuwiû Kalnienû ĩr Ƶámajtiû (The Character of the Lithuanian Highlanders and Samogitians of the Old Times, 1845; hereafter Bd) with regards to genre, origin of the title, and the dominant German sources of the work. It claims that Daukantas conceived Bd because he understood that the future of Lithuania is closely related to its past. A single, united version of Lithuanian history, accepted by the whole nation, was necessary for the development of Lithuanian national identity and collective feeling. The history, which up until then had not been published in Lithuanian, could have helped to create the contours of a new society by presenting the paradigmatic events of the past. The collective awareness of the difference between the present and the past (and future) should have given the Lithuanian community an incentive to move forward. Daukantas wrote Bd quickly, between 1842 and May 28, 1844, because he drew on his previous work ISTORYJE ƵEMAYTYSZKA (History of the Lithuanian Lowlands, ~1831–1834; IƵ). Based on the findings of previous researchers of Daukantas’s works, after studying the dominant sources of Bd and examining their nature, this article comes to the conclusion that the work has features of both cultural history and regional historiography. The graphically highlighted form of the word “BUDĄ” used in the work’s title should be considered the author’s code. Daukantas, influenced by the newest culturological research and comparative linguistics of the 18th–19th centuries, propagated that Lithuanians originate from India and, like many others, found evidence of this in the Lithuanian language and culture. He considered the Budini (Greek Βουδίνοι), who are associated with the followers of Buddha, to be Lithuanian ancestors. He found proof of this claim in the language and chose the word “būdas” (character), which evokes aforementioned associations, to express the idea of the work.

The past and future of human rights

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-224
Author(s):  
Gráinne de Búrca
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Social Movements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Human Rights Movement ◽  
The Future ◽  
Human Rights Advocacy ◽  
Advocacy Campaigns

This chapter reflects on the lessons to be derived from the advocacy campaigns in Pakistan, Argentina, and Ireland discussed in earlier chapters. Insights drawn from those campaigns are used to refine the experimentalist account of human rights advanced in Chapter 2, particularly as regards the importance of social movements and of building broad social support for human rights campaigns. The remainder of the chapter describes five major challenges of the current era—illiberalism, climate change, digitalization, pandemics, and inequality—and considers the difficulties they pose for the experimentalist account of human rights advocacy. It argues that the experimentalist practice of human rights advocacy is reasonably resilient and adaptive, and that internal contestation from within the human rights movement as well as external critiques have already helped to catalyze reform and to push activists and advocates to think more innovatively about the changes needed to strengthen the ability of the movement to engage with these major challenges in the future. It concludes that in a turbulent era, rather than abandon human rights, we should redouble our efforts to bolster, renew, and reinvigorate a movement that has galvanized constituencies and communities around the globe to mobilize for a better world.

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