scholarly journals Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (10) ◽  
pp. 933 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. R. Cullen ◽  
I. R. Johnson ◽  
R. J. Eckard ◽  
G. M. Lodge ◽  
R. G. Walker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Elevated Co2 ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Wagga Wagga ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Cool Temperate

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid- and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24–29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C3/C4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4°C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3°C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Resistance of pasture production to projected climate changes in south-eastern Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. R. Cullen ◽  
R. J. Eckard ◽  
R. P. Rawnsley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Wagga Wagga ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Cool Temperate

Climate change impact analysis relies largely on down-scaling climate projections to develop daily time-step, future climate scenarios for use in agricultural systems models. This process of climate down-scaling is complicated by differences in projections from greenhouse gas emission pathways and, in particular, the wide variation between global climate model outputs. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was used to test the resistance of pasture production to the incremental changes in climate predicted over the next 60 years in southern Australia. Twenty-five future climate scenarios were developed by scaling the historical climate by increments of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4°C (with corresponding changes to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and relative humidity) and rainfall by +10, 0, –10, –20 and –30%. The resistance of annual and seasonal pasture production to these climatic changes was simulated at six sites in south-eastern Australia. The sites spanned a range of climates from high rainfall, cool temperate in north-west Tasmania to the lower rainfall, temperate environment of Wagga Wagga in southern New South Wales. Local soil and pasture types were simulated at each site using the Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture model. Little change or higher annual pasture production was simulated at all sites with 1°C warming, but varying responses were observed with further warming. In a pasture containing a C4 native grass at Wagga Wagga, annual pasture production increased with further warming, while production was stable or declined in pasture types based on C3 species in temperate environments. In a cool temperate region pasture production increased with up to 2°C warming. Compared with the historical baseline climate, warmer and drier climate scenarios led to lower pasture production, with summer and autumn growth being most affected, although there was some variation between sites. At all sites winter production was increased under all warming scenarios. Inter-annual variation in pasture production, expressed as the coefficient of variation, increased in the lower rainfall scenarios where production was simulated to decline, suggesting that changing rainfall patterns are likely to affect the variability in pasture production more than increasing temperatures. Together the results indicate that annual pasture production is resistant to climatic changes of up to 2°C warming. The approach used in this study can be used to test the sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic changes; however, it does not incorporate changes in seasonal and extreme climatic events that may also have significant impacts on these systems. Nonetheless, the approach can be used to identify strategies that may increase resilience of agricultural systems to climate change such as the incorporation of C4 species into the pasture base.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1831) ◽  
pp. 20160442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma F. Camp ◽  
David J. Smith ◽  
Chris Evenhuis ◽  
Ian Enochs ◽  
Derek Manzello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Seagrass Beds ◽  
Metabolic Rates ◽  
Acropora Palmata ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Environmental Variance ◽  
Outer Reef ◽  
Porites Astreoides ◽  
Physiological Tolerance

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50–100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals ( Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides ) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Prem B. Parajuli ◽  
Avay Risal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Potential adaptation strategies for rainfed soybean production in the south-eastern USA under climate change based on the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model

2015 ◽  
Vol 153 (5) ◽  
pp. 798-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. BAO ◽  
G. HOOGENBOOM ◽  
R. W. McCLENDON ◽  
J. O. PAZ
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The South ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Usa ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Potential Adaptation

SUMMARYDue to the potential impact of climate change and climate variability on rainfed production systems, both farmers and policy makers will have to rely more on short- and long-term yield projections. The goal of this study was to develop a procedure for calibrating the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CROPGRO-Soybean model for six cultivars, to determine the potential impact of climate change on rainfed soybean for five locations in Georgia, USA, and to provide recommendations for potential adaptation strategies for soybean production in Georgia and other south-eastern states. The Genotype Coefficient Calculator (GENCALC) software package was applied for calibration of the soybean cultivar coefficients using variety trial data. The root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated grain yield ranged from 201 to 413 kg/ha for the six cultivars. Generally, the future climate scenarios showed an increase in temperature which caused a decrease in the number of days to maturity for all varieties and for all locations. This will benefit late-planted soybean production slightly, while the increase in precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration will result in a yield increase. This was the highest for Calhoun and Williamson and ranged from 31 to 49% for the climate change projections for 2050. However, a large reduction in precipitation caused a decrease in yield for Midville, especially based on the climate scenarios of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's model CSIRO-Mk3.0 and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's model GFDL-CM2.1. Overall, Calhoun, Williamson, Plains and Tifton will probably be more suitable for rainfed soybean production over the next 40 years than Midville. Farmers might shift to a later planting date, around 5 June, for the locations that were evaluated in the present study to avoid potential heat and drought stress during the summer months. The cultivars AG6702, AGS758RR and S80-P2 could be selected for rainfed soybean production since they had the highest rainfed yields among the six cultivars. In general, the present study showed that there are crop management options for soybean production in Georgia and the south-eastern USA that are adapted for the potential projected climate change conditions.

Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
Jahangir Ali ◽  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Kabul River
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