Factors Affecting the Population Density of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Native Forests of the Brisbane Ranges, Victoria.

1975 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Weste ◽  
P Ruppin

Population densities of Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands were measured at 10-day intervals during a period of 13 months at three sites in the Brisbane Ranges. Statistical analyses of results and of simultaneous metereological measurements demonstrated that both low temperatures and dry soils were correlated with a significant decrease in pathogen population. Disease extension occurred uphill on a slope of 4" at 6 . 6 m per year, but only from recent infection. Population densities of older sites were significantly less than that of the new site and no measurable disease extension occurred uphill from them. Disease caused an immediate and continuing reduction in understorey in both the number of species and the ground cover and, in the long term, a reduction in both wood production and the number of trees as the dense dry sclerophyll shrubby forest was changed to an open woodland.

1977 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 461 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Weste ◽  
P Ruppin

Population densities of Phytophthora cinnamomi, associated disease and environmental factors were studied concurrently during a 2-year period in three different forest ecosystems. Pathogen populations showed seasonal variation, low values being obtained for winter months associated with soil temperatures less than 10°C. Populations increased with warmer temperatures for spring and summer, but declined during dry periods in late summer or early autumn when the soil water potential was lower than -9 bars, although at that period soil temperatures were favourable. High populations were recorded in autumn, then declined with decrease in soil temperatures during winter. Correlation coefficients indicated a highly significant relationship between pathogen populations and soil temperatures from autumn to early summer, and between soil moisture and pathogen population for summer and autumn, in the Brisbane Ranges independently of site. The same pattern was evident in wetter forests at Narbethong and savannah woodlands at Wilson's Promontory, although results were not significant. Disease was evident wherever the pathogen occurred among susceptible hosts. The savannah woodland, the dry shrubby sclerophyll forest and the wetter sclerophyll forest all contained susceptible dominants; consequently disease was associated with changes in the forest community such as early death of the understorey, later die-back and death of the trees, and an increase in sedges and in bare ground. Symptoms and deaths increased with time from invasion. The severity of disease and its rate of extension, apart from spread by free water, were associated with environmental factors such as shallow soil, poor drainage and low soil water-holding capacity. These were characteristic of the Brisbane Ranges, where destruction of the forest community was severe and the rate of disease extension rapid. In the deep krasnozem at Narbethong and the deep sands of Wilson's Promontory, destruction was confined to the most susceptible hosts, disease extension was continuous but slow, and deaths occurred in a mosaic throughout the infected zone.


2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (8) ◽  
pp. 542
Author(s):  
B. A. Wilson ◽  
K. Annett ◽  
W. S. Laidlaw ◽  
D. M. Cahill ◽  
M. J. Garkaklis ◽  
...  

The significant impacts of the introduced plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi on native Australian vegetation have been well documented, but there is less knowledge of long-term effects. We assessed long-term (26 years) disease progression and impacts on vegetation floristics and structure at a heathy woodland site in the Great Otway National Park, eastern section. Disease progressed dramatically between 1989 and 2005 and by 2015 only 0.08% of the site was non-diseased. There were significant declines in plant species richness and numbers of susceptible species; and increases in percentage cover of resistant sedges and grasses overall, and in cover of Leptospermum continentale (prickly tea-tree) in post-disease areas. There were significant declines of Xanthorrhoea australis (Austral grass-tree), a keystone species that contributes greatly to vegetation structure and fauna habitat. There is an urgent need to map the distribution of P. cinnamomi affected vegetation and identify floristically important non-diseased vegetation in the national park. It is imperative that quarantine of non-infested areas, phosphite application, track closures and vehicle wash-downs be implemented to reduce disease extension and protect the significant biodiversity of the region including species rich heathlands and nationally listed threatened plant and fauna species and their habitats.


2002 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gretna Weste ◽  
Kenneth Brown ◽  
Jill Kennedy ◽  
Terry Walshe

Changes in vegetation, pathogen population and distribution were monitored periodically in both defined infested quadrats and similar pathogen-free quadrats at six sites representing major types of forest and woodland. Assessments were recorded in May 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983–1984, 1995 and 2000. The susceptible eucalypts in the overstorey of infested sites, such as Eucalyptus obliqua, E. baxteri, E. willisii and E. macroryncha, showed severe dieback, loss of crown or deaths. All the trees died on some sites, others presented dead leaders with epicormic growth on lower branches. Dieback followed by death occurred in 54% of the understorey species, including the dominant Xanthorrhoea australis, thereby changing community structure and species composition. At the time of its greatest prevalence, the pathogen’s activity resulted in a decline in species richness in infested quadrats to a mean of 25.6 species compared with a mean of 39.2 for pathogen-free quadrats. Percentage cover and percentage contribution to the community by susceptible species were negligible. On steep sites, 65% of the ground remained bare, but on other sites the susceptible flora was replaced by field-resistant species of sedges and rushes, such as Lepidosperma semiteres and Hypolaena fastigiata, and by partly resistant tea-trees Leptospermum myrsinoides, L. continentis and L. scoparium. The dense, field-resistant understorey consisted of the ground cover of H. fastigiata, scattered clumps of various sedges and above this a mass of tea-tree scrub, approximately 1 m in height, with moderately severe dieback of the branches. From 1976 to 1984, the pathogen was isolated from 100% of the 345 root and soil samples and from all of the infested quadrats, but then gradually declined. In 2000, Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands was rare at four sites and was not isolated from two sites. Regeneration of 30 susceptible species, previously eliminated, was recorded from infested sites and 21 of these species were growing in more than one quadrat. Vigorous regeneration of the previously dominant but highly susceptible X. australis occurred at two sites and was similar to that recorded from some recovering infested sites in the Brisbane Ranges, Victoria. The decline of the pathogen and the regeneration of susceptible species may be associated with low spring rainfall from 1995 to 2000 and the consequent reduction in zoospore production, enabling a partial recovery from dieback. The disease cycle from invasion and destruction of a susceptible indigenous flora by this virulent pathogen to the decline of the pathogen and the regeneration of that same susceptible indigenous flora was almost complete on sections of two of the six sites studied. In other areas, the post-infection colonising flora of field-resistant species remained dominant, except at one steep site where the ground remained uncolonised and subsequently eroded following the death of susceptible flora. Extinction following infection by P. cinnamomi, however, remains a grave threat to endangered, endemic species if susceptible.


Author(s):  
Юлия Владимировна Татаркова ◽  
Татьяна Николаевна Петрова ◽  
Олег Валериевич Судаков ◽  
Александр Юрьевич Гончаров ◽  
Ольга Николаевна Крюкова

В настоящей статье представлен обзор основных решений, доступных сегодня для формирования как краткосрочных, так и долгосрочных проекций заболеваемости болезней глаза и его придаточного аппарата в студенческой среде. С другой стороны, существует ряд проблем, связанных с многообразием факторов, влияющих на заболеваемость, статистической необоснованностью и противоречивостью имеющихся результатов анализа данных. Представлены результаты математического моделирования зависимости показателя заболеваемости от наиболее влиятельных факторов образовательной и социальной среды. Перечислены важнейшие направления разработки математических моделей распространения заболеваемости. С помощью разработанного программного комплекса проведена серия вычислительных экспериментов по оценке и прогнозированию заболеваемости обучающихся в вузах разного профиля. Показана эффективность применения методики многовариантного моделирования и прогнозирования, указаны их ограничения и возможности практического применения. По расположению обобщенной области благоприятного прогноза в факторном пространстве можно определить время воздействия неблагоприятных для зрения факторов, которое должно составлять не более 10 ... 11 часов в сутки, количество профилактических мероприятий должно составлять не менее 3 ... 4. При этом риск развития миопии составит не более 0,4, вероятность усталости глаз за компьютером составит не более 0,4, вероятность дискомфорта глаз на занятиях составит не более 0,15. Исходя из характера прогноза, определяется длительность диспансерного наблюдения, а также потребность профилактических мероприятий по устранению или ослаблению действия неблагоприятно влияющих социально-гигиенических и медико-биологических факторов конкретного больного. Использование прогностической матрицы в практическом здравоохранении позволяет существенно улучшить работу по профилактике офтальмологической заболеваемости и является одним из эффективных мероприятий диспансеризации студенческой молодежи, так как дает возможность выделить из числа обучающихся группу с высоким риском неблагоприятного исхода заболевания This article provides an overview of the main solutions available today for the formation of both short-term and long-term projections of the incidence of eye diseases and its adnexa in the student environment. On the other hand, there are a number of problems associated with a variety of factors affecting the incidence, statistical unreasonability and inconsistency of the available data analysis results. The results of mathematical modeling of the dependence of the incidence rate on the most influential factors of the educational and social environment are presented. The most important areas of developing mathematical models for the spread of morbidity are listed. With the help of the developed software package, a series of computational experiments was carried out to assess and predict the incidence of students in universities of various profiles. The effectiveness of the application of multivariate modeling and forecasting methods is shown, their limitations and practical application possibilities are indicated. By the location of the generalized region of favorable prognosis in the factor space, it is possible to determine the exposure time of factors unfavorable for vision, which should be no more than 10 ... 11 hours a day, the number of preventive measures should be at least 3 ... 4. At the same time, the risk of development myopia will be no more than 0.4, the probability of eye fatigue at the computer will be no more than 0.4, the likelihood of eye discomfort in the classroom will be no more than 0.15. Based on the nature of the forecast, the duration of the follow-up observation is determined, as well as the need for preventive measures to eliminate or weaken the action of adverse social, hygienic and biomedical factors of a particular patient. The use of the prognostic matrix in practical health care can significantly improve the work on the prevention of ophthalmic morbidity and is one of the effective medical examinations for students, since it makes it possible to distinguish among the students a group with a high risk of an unfavorable outcome of the disease


HortScience ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 548b-548
Author(s):  
C.S. Walsh ◽  
A.J. Barton ◽  
M. Newell ◽  
G.R. Welsh

Three Asian pear plantings were set during the past decade. Plantings included an initial cultivar planting on OH × F rootstock, the SE Zonal planting, and a rootstock by cultivar factorial. Fireblight susceptibility and survival were assessed in the first two plantings following a summer hailstorm. Trees were compared to Magness, a blight-tolerant buttery pear. Shin Li, Daisu Li, Shinsui, and Olympic were more resistant than Magness, while Chojuro and Niitaka were nearly as tolerant. Eleven other cultivars showed greater field-susceptibility. The most-susceptible cultivars were Ya Li and Ts'e Li. The third planting, which was managed “organically,” was set at a different University farm. Trees there were precocious and productive. A high percentage of marketable fruit was picked from that planting over a 4-year period. Fireblight damage in this planting was low, despite its “organic” production. Limited damage was attributed to early bloom date, ground cover management, and a lack of insect vectors to transmit the bacteria. Hosui, Seuri and Ts'e Li produced large-sized fruit. Shinko, 20th Century, Ya Li and Shinseiki fruit were too small to be marketable without heavy hand-thinning. Asian pears are an interesting alternative crop which are suited to direct-market enterprises or to specialty growers interested in producing organic fruit in the mid-Atlantic region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Poldrugovac ◽  
J E Amuah ◽  
H Wei-Randall ◽  
P Sidhom ◽  
K Morris ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Evidence of the impact of public reporting of healthcare performance on quality improvement is not yet sufficient to draw conclusions with certainty, despite the important policy implications. This study explored the impact of implementing public reporting of performance indicators of long-term care facilities in Canada. The objective was to analyse whether improvements can be observed in performance measures after publication. Methods We considered 16 performance indicators in long-term care in Canada, 8 of which are publicly reported at a facility level, while the other 8 are privately reported. We analysed data from the Continuing Care Reporting System managed by the Canadian Institute for Health Information and based on information collection with RAI-MDS 2.0 © between the fiscal years 2011 and 2018. A multilevel model was developed to analyse time trends, before and after publication, which started in 2015. The analysis was also stratified by key sample characteristics, such as the facilities' jurisdiction, size, urban or rural location and performance prior to publication. Results Data from 1087 long-term care facilities were included. Among the 8 publicly reported indicators, the trend in the period after publication did not change significantly in 5 cases, improved in 2 cases and worsened in 1 case. Among the 8 privately reported indicators, no change was observed in 7, and worsening in 1 indicator. The stratification of the data suggests that for those indicators that were already improving prior to public reporting, there was either no change in trend or there was a decrease in the rate of improvement after publication. For those indicators that showed a worsening trend prior to public reporting, the contrary was observed. Conclusions Our findings suggest public reporting of performance data can support change. The trends of performance indicators prior to publication appear to have an impact on whether further change will occur after publication. Key messages Public reporting is likely one of the factors affecting change in performance in long-term care facilities. Public reporting of performance measures in long-term care facilities may support improvements in particular in cases where improvement was not observed before publication.


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