From rainfall to farm incomes—transforming advice for Australian drought policy. II. Forecasting farm incomes

2007 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 1004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohan Nelson ◽  
Philip Kokic ◽  
Holger Meinke
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Income Risk ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Bioeconomic Modelling ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
Income Variability

Australian drought policy is focussed on providing relief from the immediate effects of drought on farm incomes, while enhancing the longer term resilience of rural livelihoods. Despite the socioeconomic nature of these objectives, the information systems created to support the policy have focussed almost exclusively on biophysical measures of climate variability and its effects on agricultural production. In this paper, we demonstrate the ability of bioeconomic modelling to overcome the moral hazard and timing issues that have led to the dominance of these biophysical measures. The Agricultural Farm Income Risk Model (AgFIRM), developed and tested in a companion paper, is used to provide objective, model-based forecasts of annual farm incomes at the beginning of the financial year (July–June). The model was then used to relate climate-induced income variability to the diversity of farm income sources, a practical measure of adaptive capacity that can be positively influenced by policy. Three timeless philosophical arguments are used to discuss the policy relevance of the bioeconomic modelling. These arguments are used to compare the value to decision makers of relatively imprecise, integrative information, with relatively precise, reductionist measures. We conclude that the evolution of bioeconomic modelling systems provides an opportunity to refocus the analytical support for Australian drought policy towards the rural livelihood effects that matter most to governments and rural communities.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES ON INCOME RISK IN LITHUANIAN DAIRY FARMS

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imre Ferto ◽  
Aldona Stalgienė
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Income Risk ◽  
Agricultural Subsidies ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
Income Variability

The aim of the paper is to investigate the effects of agricultural subsidies on income variability of Lithuanian dairy farms. In addition, the observed heterogeneity in income risks across farms and time is explained in terms of farm characteristics. It was employed balanced farm-level panel data of the Lithuanian farm accountancy network (FADN) was used to construct coefficients of variation of five-year gross farm revenues over the period 2010 to 2014. Various econometric models are applied to measure the effect of off-farm income, total subsidies, farm size, and financial immobility on the variability of gross farm incomes. Estimations suggest that agricultural subsidies, liquidity have positive impact on income risk. The age of farmers negatively influences the income risk. There is non-linear relationship between farm size and income risk.

scholarly journals Surviving Strategies of Rural Livelihoods in South Sumatra Farming System, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 02001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Wildayana ◽  
Mustika Edi Armanto ◽  
Zulkifli Idrus ◽  
Iwan Adi Radiatmoko ◽  
Syuhada Adjiz Umar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Social Needs ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
Governmental Intervention ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
And Migration ◽  
On Farm

The research aimed to analyze surviving strategies of rural livelihoods in South Sumatra farming system, Indonesia. The research was conducted in in January to April 2018 using the field survey, respondents were divided into two categories, namely the respondents for Analytical Hierarchy Process and Participatory Rural Appraisal. The collected data were analyzed to determine the significance at the level of 5%. The research resulted that the very poor and poor households focused on primary aspects (food and drink), while moderate and rich households emphasized on the fulfillment of social needs. Household income was different for each household rank and different at the 5% test level. Rich households earned income from various sources, such as on-farm (farming, plantation, livestock, fishery etc.) and off-farm, while very poor and poor households focused only on-farm income. All income sources were significantly different for each group households ranks. Surviving household can be done with three strategies, namely income-generating strategy; expenditure-reducing strategy; and migration. It is needed an Governmental intervention to help the very poor and poor households in their poverty alleviation, i.e. providing direct cash fund; involving in government projects; and making public policy in favor of these groups.

scholarly journals Influence of Market Diversification on Farm Income Variability of Soybean Producers

1979 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-105
Author(s):  
B. R. Eddleman ◽  
J. E. Moya-Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Fundamental Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Production Variability ◽  
Income Variability ◽  
Marketing Actions

Many decisions made by farm producers are based on expectations. The process of formulating and incorporating these expectations into decision making is difficult when high variability occurs in product prices, crop yields, production costs, or other factors affecting net income. Farm producers may be influenced by a number of goals in selecting combinations of crops to produce and marketing outlets for the crops. Two goals generally held to be important to farm decision makers are maximization of net income and net income stability. Given the price, yield, and cost of production variability characteristics of a farm enterprise and these two goals of farm decision makers, a fundamental problem is to determine what combination of alternative marketing actions can best satisfy the two objectives. A systematic examination of the relationship between the level of net income and net income variability for combinations of marketing alternatives would aid farmers in deciding on marketing actions to attain these goals.

scholarly journals Structural Changes in Israeli Family Farms: Long-Run Trends in the Farm Size Distribution and the Role of Part-Time Farming

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Ayal Kimhi ◽  
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Higher Moments ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Family Farms ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Part Time ◽  
The Mean

Israeli agriculture has experienced rapid structural changes in recent decades, including the massive exit of farmers, a resulting increase in average farm size, a higher farm specialization and a higher reliance on non-farm income sources. The higher farm heterogeneity makes it necessary to examine changes in the entire farm size distribution rather than the common practice of analyzing changes in the average farm size alone. This article proposes a nonparametric analysis in which the change in the distribution of farm sizes between two periods is decomposed into several components, and the contributions of subgroups of farms to this change are analyzed. Using data on Israeli family farms, we analyze the changes in the farm size distribution in two separate time periods that are characterized by very different economic environments, focusing on the different contributions of full-time farms and part-time farms to the overall distributional changes. We found that between 1971 and 1981, a period characterized by stability and prosperity, the farm size distribution has shifted to the right with relatively minor changes in higher moments of the distribution. On the other hand, between 1981 and 1995, a largely unfavorable period to Israeli farmers, the change in the distribution was much more complex. While the overall change in the size distribution of farms was smaller in magnitude than in the earlier period, higher moments of the distribution were not less important than the increase in the mean and led to higher dispersion of farm sizes. Between 1971 and 1981, the contributions of full- and part-time farms to the change in the size distribution were quite similar. Between 1981 and 1995, however, full-time farms contributed mostly to the growth in the average farm size, while the average farm size among part-time farms actually decreased, and their contribution to the higher dispersion of farm sizes was quantitatively larger. This highlights the need to analyze the changes in the entire farm size distribution rather than focusing on the mean alone, and to allow for differences between types of farms.

How Risky is Your Retirement Income Risk Model?

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Collins ◽  
Huy D. Lam ◽  
Josh Stampfli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Retirement Income ◽  
Income Risk

scholarly journals Systems analysis – complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural municipality in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calvin Sambo ◽  
Aidan Senzanje ◽  
Mutanga Onisimo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Rural Communities ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Water Services ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Rural Municipality ◽  
Effect Relationship ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Limited Budget ◽  
Relationship Of

Abstract Limited understanding of the complex interactions of factors that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services poses a threat to rural livelihoods. The study assessed the complex interactions of the factors using a network approach. The assessment was to understand the complex interaction of the factors resulting from their cause-effect relationship that influence the sustainability of access to improved water services in a rural municipality of South Africa. The results highlighted that limited budget, limited or no water supply and improper operation and maintenance were critical factors resulting from the cause-effect relationship of other factors that influenced the sustainability of access to improved water services in the study area. We conclude that critical factors with a cause-effect relationship can influence the sustainability of access to improved water services. As a result, this deprives rural communities of the benefits derived from accessing improved water services. We recommend the use of the findings by the relevant authorities responsible for water services provision to inform planning, management, policies to address challenges identified to contribute to sustainability of access to improved water services.

scholarly journals Appraising Forest-Based Livelihoods through Assessment of Major NTFPs: A Case Study from Jharkhand, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 053-059
Author(s):  
Sunil Prasad ◽  
◽  
Dhanpal Singh Chauhan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Interview Schedule ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Mineral Wealth ◽  
Non Timber Forest Products

The state Jharkhand is one of the Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) rich states of the country because of diverse physiographic and climatic conditions. It is known for its mineral wealth, tribal population and forests. NTFPs play an important role in supporting rural livelihoods and food security in tribal Jharkhand. The present study was carried out in three distinct villages of Jharkhand to explore the range of livelihood contributions of NTFPs. The study was based on empirical fieldwork using both quantitative and qualitative data. A structured interview schedule was managed for the respondents. Comparing income sources, we found that most of the households collect NTFPs and earn a handsome amount of income from NTFPs ranges from 33% to 59%. We also prioritized potential NTFPs along with their basic value chain.

Income Risk of German Farms and its Drivers

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-107
Author(s):  
Christoph Duden
Keyword(s):  
Data Availability ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Income Risk ◽  
Absolute Level ◽  
Farm Accountancy Data Network ◽  
Farm Types

The analysis of income risk is the basis for successful whole farm risk management. The measurement of risks helps to objectively assess the farms’ individual risk exposure. However, due to limited data availability, comprehensive overall risk analyses are often scarce, e.g. for Germany. The present study analyses risk exposure for more than 3,000 farms in Germany in the period 1996/97-2015/16 on the basis of the national Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). Our results show that (i) risk exposure is heterogeneous and that fluctuations and particularly large decreases in farm income are rarely attributable to individual risk components (e. g. prices or yields), (ii) farm income risk has been higher in the period after 2007 for many farms, especially arable and dairy farms, (iii) while the income risk in dairy farming increased, it is still lower than that of most other farm types in the period 2006/07-2015/16, (iv) the for-mation of expected values has a significant influence on the absolute level of the measured risk and should be given more attention in future research.

Ecological Governance and the Sustainability of Rural Household Water Conservation Systems in the Savannah Region of Ghana

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Prosper Bazaanah
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Gender Inclusion ◽  
Ecological Governance ◽  
And Gender

This chapter examined the link between ecological governance and water conservation as sustainable pathways for enhancing rural livelihoods in the Savannah Region. Designs adopted were post-positivist and cross-sectional. Probability sampling techniques were used to sample 450 household and official respondents. Questionnaires were administered, while descriptive statistics and chi-square test were utilised to analyse the data. Findings showed significant relationship between conservation initiatives, finance, rehabilitation/maintenance, and gender inclusion and domestic water conservation. Therefore, with commitment to maintenance, funding, and gender inclusion in water decisions, there is the likely for water to be locally sustainable in rural communities of the region. Democratic, decentralised, and participatory approaches to ecological governance and empowerment of the local communities are recommended as essential preconditions for achieving ecologically self-governing communities and sustaining domestic water systems in the rural areas of the region.

scholarly journals Diversification of Livestock-Keeping Smallholders in Mountainous Rural Regions of Azerbaijan and Georgia

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Regina Neudert ◽  
Naiba Allahverdiyeva ◽  
Niyaz Mammadov ◽  
Alexandre Didebulidze ◽  
Volker Beckmann
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Social Benefit ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Farm Work ◽  
Caucasus Region ◽  
Income Sources ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Household Incomes

Diversified livelihoods combining farming, livestock keeping and non-farm income are characteristic of many rural households worldwide. For the Central Asian and Caucasian region, livestock keeping is especially important in terms of land use and socio-cultural heritage. We contribute to the literature with data from the under-researched Caucasus region and investigate: (i) the extent of diversification in smallholder households; (ii) the role of livestock keeping in diversification; (iii) the influence of household-specific and location-specific variables and diversification on household income. Based on a dataset of 303 households, we calculate contribution margins for the main agricultural activities, household income, and diversification indices and analyze the influence of diversification, asset and location variables on household income with a regression model. Household income is generally diversified and a combination of four income sources (crops, livestock, poultry/bees and social benefits) was the most frequent. The econometric analysis shows that higher household incomes are positively correlated with higher household land and livestock assets, the presence of non-farm work and social benefit income sources and with an increasing specialization as measured by the diversification index. For enhancing rural household incomes and slowing down rural-urban migration, the development of non-farm job opportunities is recommended.

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