A regional model of sheep lice management practices for predicting the impact of treatment for lice when no lice are detected

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Horton ◽  
Andrew Bailey ◽  
Anna L. Carew

A model of sheep lice management incorporating different assumed levels of lice prevalence in different regions of Australia was used to determine the conditions under which it would be cost-effective to treat sheep for lice at shearing when no lice had been detected. The probability that a flock might be infested was calculated from the probability that the previous treatment had failed to eradicate lice, purchased sheep may have introduced lice, or lice may have entered on straying sheep. The model showed that a flock should be treated if the probability of infestation is greater than 10%. It was projected that acceptance of a risk level greater than 10% would reduce treatment of flocks where no lice were present, thus reducing treatment costs. This higher risk level, however, would increase the proportion of louse-infested flocks that remained untreated, resulting in increased direct lice costs and an increase in the regional prevalence of lice, but little overall change in costs to the sheep industry. The model indicated that treatment of sheep at lower levels of risk (less than 10%) would incur unnecessary costs due to treatment of flocks where no lice were present and would not reduce the regional prevalence of lice more effectively than a 10% intervention level. The model suggested that more accurate methods of detecting lice at shearing would allow higher levels of risk, reduce the use of treatment and hence reduce overall costs associated with managing lice, without increasing the prevalence of lice.

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 726
Author(s):  
Peri G. Lucas ◽  
Brian J. Horton ◽  
David Parsons ◽  
Anna L. Carew

A model of lice management systems was used to investigate the potential benefits of improved fencing against straying sheep, used in conjunction with other management options for lice control. The impact of combined strategies was simulated over a 20-year period. Management options included in the model were: lice eradication rate, lice detection, intervention level, improved fencing to reduce straying sheep, and biosecurity of purchased sheep. The modelling found it was cost-effective to improve fences for an initial average cost of $20 000/property if the number of properties from which strays could enter was reduced by ≥40%, but for average Australian properties this represents less than 20% of the boundary replaced. In order for fencing to be a cost-effective part of lice management, the fencing must target sections of boundary fence that will provide the greatest protection from contact with neighbouring flocks. The model showed that improved biosecurity against straying sheep combined well with improved eradication rates. However, biosecurity for purchased sheep may be the most cost-effective option.


Author(s):  
Filipe Lage de Sousa ◽  
Mauricio Canêdo-Pinheiro ◽  
Bernardo Pereira Cabral ◽  
Glaucia Estefânia de Sousa Ferreira

One of the key drivers for a firm's productivity growth is management. One lean management practice considered cost-effective is Kaizen. Originally from Japan, the Kaizen basic concept is continuous improvement with the involvement of the full workforce. Using a firm-level dataset from Brazil's innovation and manufacturing surveys, this paper evaluates quantitatively whether Kaizen has impacted the performance of domestic firms. Our initial results suggest a productivity premium on Kaizen adopters, yet when it materializes is not detectable in the short term. Moreover, the impact on innovation is observable after Kaizen implementation. Understanding these outcomes with a qualitative approach, our analysis highlights the importance of Kaizen on innovation, especially by improving worker's time at the production line as well as the long-term vision of Kaizen on productivity. In summary, Kaizen is not a magic wand that improves firms’ performance in a wide array of indicators yet it may boost innovation outcomes in the short term aiming to improve productivity in the long term if it is implemented carefully and persistently, as established by its basic principles.


1982 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. P. Whalley

Many nations are debating the implementation of vessel traffic services (VTS) and it is envisaged that some regulation of the movement of marine traffic may soon be imposed. It is highly desirable that prior to any change a rigorous appraisal of the existing traffic be carried out to establish the level of risk in the area; this level can then be used to evaluate any proposed change. The following note describes a research project concerned with establishing a general method of determining the base risk level, developed from earlier research by M. Degré and M. Lefèvre who used a computer simulation of marine traffic in the Dover Strait to assess the impact of various suggested traffic separation schemes. A cost-effective tool has been developed at Liverpool which will enable traffic patterns to be studied in areas remote from the land. This is a computer simulation model which is being used to establish dynamic areas of risk in the Irish Sea, which could easily be transposed to study traffic patterns in any other area.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bethanna Jackson ◽  
Rubianca Benavidez ◽  
Keith Miller ◽  
Deborah Maxwell

Abstract. Increasing attention is turning to moderating the impact of human activity on the environment, both to preserve the intrinsic value of ecosystems and species for their own sake, and to protect the benefits we derive from nature for future generations. Internationally, various regulations and policies are in place or in development to improve our stewardship of the environment and develop more sustainable and resilient management practices. However, policies formulated at national or regional scales are not always suited to enacting targeted and cost-effective approaches at the local scale due to geoclimatic, topographical, or management constraints. The direct monitoring of the local and upstream impacts of every management unit to determine their net impact is a costly practice, thus emphasising the need for modelling approaches to complement limited on-ground measurements. This paper describes and demonstrates tools (LUCI-EntEx v1.0) that automatically identify the fluvial and terrestrial flow of water in and out of a study area, such as a river that enters a farm that is impacted by upstream management, or terrestrial flow coming from neighbouring property. By identifying the stream entry/exit points, the net impact of land management within the study area can be more easily quantified based on the contribution of neighbouring and upstream areas, aiding in the decision-making process. This algorithm also facilitates the identification of inconsistencies in data such as differences between the legal/official catchment boundaries and the hydrological boundaries determined by the representation of terrain and river networks. If such inconsistencies are not resolved, they can cause further error propagation in later stages of the modelling process. Four case studies of New Zealand management units – two at the farm scale and two at the catchment scale – demonstrate the algorithm's utility in determining fluvial and terrestrial entry/exit points and highlighting potential data inconsistencies. The farm case studies also use the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) framework to demonstrate how this algorithm can be embedded in other models for further value: in this case, we show its potential to improve predictions and enhance management of nutrients and sediment.


2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 1931
Author(s):  
Peri G. Lucas ◽  
Brian J. Horton ◽  
David Parsons ◽  
Anna L. Carew

Using a previously developed predictive model, three different management practices were examined in combination with post-shearing chemical treatments for lice, to determine which combinations could provide cost-effective reductions in lice prevalence over a 20-year period. The model included nine sheep production regions across Australia, all of which have different regional flock prevalence of lice and mean numbers of sheep/property. The lice prevalence model simulated the effects of four management options on Australian lice prevalence and on financial return (expressed as net present value) over a 20-year period. Management options modelled in this study were: treatment for eradication, inspection for lice detection, intervention level, and biosecurity of purchased sheep. The costs and benefits of these management options were calculated on the basis of published data or standard industry costs. Combinations of eradication achieved through treatment and biosecurity of purchased sheep provided the greatest modelled reductions in Australian flock lice prevalence at the lowest cost. With current management practices, lice prevalence was estimated as 16.3% of Australian properties infested and lice costs were estimated at 902 cents per sheep over 20 years. The model estimated that with appropriate management, lice prevalence could be reduced to less than 1.5% of properties infested and costs could be halved to 435 cents per sheep over 20 years. With further development, the modelling described herein offers potential guidance for Australian sheep producers in selecting the most effective and cost-efficient combination of management strategies to reduce lice infestation.


Soil Research ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 468 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Baldock ◽  
M. H. Beare ◽  
D. Curtin ◽  
B. Hawke

Developing a routine and cost effective capability for measuring soil organic carbon (SOC) content and composition will allow identification of land management practices with a potential to maintain or enhance SOC stocks. Coupling SOC content data and mid-infrared (MIR) spectra through the application of partial least-squares regression (PLSR) analyses has been used to develop such a prediction capability. The objective of this study was to determine whether MIR/PLSR analyses provide accurate estimates of the content and composition of SOC that can be used to quantify SOC stocks and its potential vulnerability to loss. Soil was collected from a field trial incorporating a range of land use (pasture, arable cropping and bare fallow) and tillage (intensive, minimum and no tillage) treatments over a nine-year period. The SOC content was measured by dry combustion analysis. Particulate organic carbon was separated from other forms of carbon on the basis of particle size (SOC in the >50 µm fraction). Resistant organic carbon was quantified using solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance. The MIR/PLSR algorithms were successfully developed to predict the natural logarithms of the contents of SOC and POC in the collected soils. With initial calibration, a single MIR analysis could be used in conjunction with PLSR algorithms to predict the content of SOC and its allocation to component fractions. The MIR/PLSR predicted SOC contents provided reliable estimates of the impact of agricultural management on the 0–25-cm SOC stocks, as well as an indication of the vulnerability of SOC to loss. Development of this capability will facilitate the rapid and cost effective collection of SOC content data for detecting the impact of agricultural management treatments on SOC stocks, composition and potential vulnerability to change.


2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (702) ◽  
pp. e22-e30
Author(s):  
Simon Leigh ◽  
Bimal Mehta ◽  
Lillian Dummer ◽  
Harriet Aird ◽  
Sinead McSorley ◽  
...  

BackgroundNon-urgent emergency department (ED) attendances are common among children. Primary care management may not only be more clinically appropriate, but may also improve patient experience and be more cost-effective.AimTo determine the impact on admissions, waiting times, antibiotic prescribing, and treatment costs of integrating a GP into a paediatric ED.Design and settingRetrospective cohort study explored non-urgent ED presentations in a paediatric ED in north-west England.MethodFrom 1 October 2015 to 30 September 2017, a GP was situated in the ED from 2.00 pm until 10.00 pm, 7 days a week. All children triaged as ‘green’ using the Manchester Triage System (non-urgent) were considered to be ‘GP appropriate’. In cases of GP non-availability, children considered non-urgent were managed by ED staff. Clinical and operational outcomes, as well as the healthcare costs of children managed by GPs and ED staff across the same timeframe over a 2-year period were compared.ResultsOf 115 000 children attending the ED over the study period, a complete set of data were available for 13 099 categorised as ‘GP appropriate’; of these, 8404 (64.2%) were managed by GPs and 4695 (35.8%) by ED staff. Median duration of ED stay was 39 min (interquartile range [IQR] 16–108 min) in the GP group and 165 min (IQR 104–222 min) in the ED group (P<0.001). Children in the GP group were less likely to be admitted as inpatients (odds ratio [OR] 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.13 to 0.20) and less likely to wait >4 hours before being admitted or discharged (OR 0.11; 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.13), but were more likely to receive antibiotics (OR 1.42; 95% CI = 1.27 to 1.58). Treatment costs were 18.4% lower in the group managed by the GP (P<0.0001).ConclusionGiven the rising demand for children’s emergency services, GP in ED care models may improve the management of non-urgent ED presentations. However, further research that incorporates causative study designs is required.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar Mahapatra ◽  
Tamalika Bhadra ◽  
Swapan Kumar Paul

Sugar is an important source of energy for the human body although it receives blame for many health problems, without it, the body would cease to function properly. Nearby thirty percent of the world sugar comes from sugar beet. Production of sugar beet globally spans diverse regions with a wide range of climatic and agro-ecological regions which shows exclusive management challenges. Fertilizer or nutrient management is one of the practices that associate with fertilizer use efficiency and production of the crops including sugar beet. As the nutrient management interacts with different agro-ecological areas and soils, the fertilizer recommendations and management have become regional and site-specific. Maximizing beet and sugar yields, the knowledge of the management of the fertilizers or nutrition is very essential. This article is to understand the impact of different fertilizers in different management practices including the major nutrients of the crop, fertilizer rate, timing, and method of application either solely or in a mixture or integrated manner with reviewing diverse research experiments. Moreover, it will help to approach future strategies and needs for making the production of sugar beet as a cost-effective crop with new improving management technologies for the farmers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanxin Hou ◽  
Shaowen Qin ◽  
Campbell Henry Thompson

Abstract Background: Hospital congestion is a common problem for the healthcare sector. Numerous studies explored reasons for crowding within some parts of the hospital. However, to deal with more general, hospital-wide problems, examining the hospital as a connected whole is necessary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate de-congestion interventions through a whole hospital simulation model and offer objective reasoning to support hospital management decisions.Method: This study tested a congestion prevention method that estimates the current day’s hospital congestion risk level R at a set time every morning, and activates minimum intervention when R is above certain threshold R(C), using a virtual hospital created by simulation modelling. The color-coding system was adopted to demonstrate the impact and the extent of effectiveness of this method in preventing hospital congestions.Results: The results indicated that adding 8 flex beds to the medical department resulted in more reductions (70.93%) of red-days comparing with the surgical ward (37.15%). Red days reduction per affected patient when discharging two medical patients was 0.1 which was higher than when discharging two surgical (0.04) or two long-stay patients (0.07). Also, the efficiency of red days reduction per affected patient is always greater if removing 2 patients than if discharging more patients. Conclusions: The expected outcome based on theoretical prediction of this method was confirmed, that is, applying a less disruptive intervention is often enough, and more cost effective, to reduce the risk level of hospital congestion. Making a small number of extra beds available was a superior solution compared to discharging approaches to reduce crowding in hospitals. In addition, the virtual implementation approach enabled testing of the method at a more detailed level, thereby revealed some interesting findings difficult to achieve theoretically, such as discharging extra two medical inpatients, rather than surgical inpatients, a day earlier on days when R>R(C), would bring more benefits in terms of congestion reduction for the hospital.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Ahmed Musa Siyam ◽  
Kantoush S. A ◽  
Saad A. S

Hydropower generation is one of the key purposes that dams were built for. World-wide the sustainability of hydropower operation is deprived and threatened by the alarming rate of reservoir sedimentation. The situation is even worst for the cases where the sediment delta has propagated and reached the dam site. Various sediment management practices have been employed to cope with the problem at a huge amount of cost. This paper analyses the sedimentation problem and the impact on hydropower generation in Roseires reservoir, in Sudan. An economical reservoir sediment management plan such as Hydro-suction dredging technique is suggested. The deposited sediment should be agitated before being bypassed to the downstream via a pipeline that makes use of the natural hydraulic head of water. A detailed design procedure is outlined and guidelines for the optimization are presented. The procedure is theoretically illustrated by applying it to remove the annual deposited sediment ahead of Roseires Hydropower intakes in Sudan. It was concluded that such system is cost effective when compared to costs incurred in tackling the effect of siltation in front of hydropower intakes.


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