scholarly journals Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement

2014 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Moore ◽  
Afshin Ghahramani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Size ◽  
Genetic Improvement ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
Beef Cow ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Climate change is predicted to reduce the productivity of the broadacre livestock industries across southern Australia; to date there has been no formal evaluation of the potential of genetic improvement in cattle or sheep to ameliorate the impacts of changing climates. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess selection of five traits of sheep and cattle as adaptation options under the SRES A2 global change scenario. Analysis of the breeding strategies was carried out for 25 representative locations, five livestock enterprises and three future years (2030, 2050, 2070). Uncertainty in future climates was taken into account by considering projected climates from four global circulation models. For three sheep enterprises, breeding for greater fleece growth (at constant body size) was predicted to produce the greatest improvements in forage conversion efficiency, and so it was the most effective genetic adaptation option. For beef cow and steer enterprises, breeding for larger body size was most effective; for beef cows, however, this conclusion relied on per-animal costs (including provision of bulls) remaining stable as body size increases. Increased conception rates proved to be less effective but potentially viable as an adaptation in beef cow and crossbred ewe enterprises. In the southern Australian environments that were analysed, our modelling suggests that breeding for tolerance to heat stress is unlikely to improve the performance of livestock production systems even at 2070. Genetic improvement of livestock was able to recover much less of the impact of climate change on profitability at drier locations where the need for adaptation is likely to be greatest. Combinations of feedbase and livestock genetic adaptations are likely to complement one another as the former alter the amount of forage that can be consumed, while the latter affect the efficiency with which consumed forage is converted to animal products. Climate change impacts on pasture production across southern Australia are likely to have only small effects on methane emissions intensity, as are a range of candidate genetic and feedbase adaptations to climate change; methane emissions per hectare in future climates will therefore be driven mainly by changes in livestock numbers due to alterations in pasture productivity.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1260
Author(s):  
Minglu Wang ◽  
Bruce A. McCarl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dairy Cows ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
County Level ◽  
Beef Cow ◽  
Animal Product ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.

The impact of extreme climatic events on pasture-based dairy systems: a review

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Chang-Fung-Martel ◽  
M. T. Harrison ◽  
R. Rawnsley ◽  
A. P. Smith ◽  
H. Meinke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Pasture Production ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Extreme Climatic Events ◽  
Dairy Systems ◽  
The Impact

Extreme climatic events such as heat waves, extreme rainfall and prolonged dry periods are a significant challenge to the productivity and profitability of dairy systems. Despite projections of more frequent extreme events, increasing temperatures and reduced precipitation, studies on the impact of these extreme climatic events on pasture-based dairy systems remain uncommon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated Australia to be one of the most negatively impacted regions with additional studies estimating Australian production losses of around 16% in the agricultural sector and 9–19% between the present and 2050 in the south-eastern dairy regions of Australia due to climate change. Here we review the literature on the impact of climate change on pasture-based dairy systems with particular focus on extreme climatic events. We provide an insight into current methods for assessing and quantifying heat stress highlighting the impacts on pastures and animals including the associated potential productivity losses and conclude by outlining potential adaptation strategies for improving the resilience of the whole-farm systems to climate change. Adapting milking routines, calving systems and the introduction of heat stress tolerant dairy cow breeds are some proposed strategies. Changes in pasture production would also include alternative pasture species better adapted to climate extremes such as heat waves and prolonged periods of water deficit. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies we also need to focus on issues such as water availability, animal health and associated energy costs.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change: Impact and Implications

2018 ◽  
pp. 469-484
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 1041-1055
Author(s):  
Maha Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Pathogens ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation Options

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

scholarly journals Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingcai Wang ◽  
Hui Lin ◽  
Jinbai Huang ◽  
Chenjuan Jiang ◽  
Yangyang Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 154 (7) ◽  
pp. 1153-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. EBRAHIMI ◽  
A. M. MANSCHADI ◽  
R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽  
J EITZINGER ◽  
S. THALER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Eastern Austria ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

scholarly journals Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saddique ◽  
Usman ◽  
Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

scholarly journals Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Rickards ◽  
Thomas Thomas ◽  
Alexandra Kaelin ◽  
Helen Houghton-Carr ◽  
Sharad K. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

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