scholarly journals Managing for rainfall variability: long-term profitability of different grazing strategies in a northern Australian tropical savanna

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter O'Reagain ◽  
John Bushell ◽  
Bill Holmes
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Variable Environment ◽  
Poor Condition ◽  
Product Value ◽  
Grazing Strategies ◽  
Stocking Rates

Several grazing strategies are recommended to manage sustainably for rainfall variability in northern Australia, but there is little objective data on their profitability relative to less sustainable management systems such as heavy stocking. In 1997, a large cattle grazing trial was initiated in northern Queensland to quantify the relative performance of a range of grazing strategies in a variable climate. These strategies were (i) moderate stocking (MSR) stocked at the calculated long-term carrying capacity (LTCC), (ii) heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC, (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC, (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available forage and (v) a southern oscillation index (SOI)-variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November based on available forage and SOI-based seasonal forecasts. Rainfall varied over the 12-year trial period, with sequences of dry and wet years. Gross margins (GM) in the HSR were initially high but collapsed in drier years due to high costs and reduced product value. GMs only recovered in later years with a reduced stocking rate and increased rainfall. The VAR and SOI were also initially very profitable, but GMs plunged as rainfall declined due to reduced animal performance and the sale of poor-condition cattle. This sharp cut in stocking rates nevertheless allowed GMs to recover well in subsequent years. In the MSR, GMs remained relatively constant across most years due to low costs and a higher product value. The R/Spell also performed relatively well despite being compromised by an ill-timed fire, drought and the subsequent sale of poor-condition cattle. Net present value (NPV) after 12 years was highest in the VAR ($11 962/100 ha), followed by the MSR ($11 873/100 ha), the SOI ($11 167/100 ha) and the R/Spell ($10 665/100 ha). NPV was by far the lowest in the HSR ($6930/100 ha). Profitability also varied the most in the HSR, with a negative GM in 6 of the 12 years. Incorporating the costs of natural resource decline would further reinforce the case against heavy stocking. These results challenge the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable.

scholarly journals Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter O'Reagain ◽  
John Bushell ◽  
Chris Holloway ◽  
Angela Reid
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Variable Environment ◽  
Condition Score ◽  
Stocking Rates

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and profitable cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR (86 kg). Mean LWG was 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60–100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR (mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 104 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Managing for rainfall variability: impacts of grazing strategies on perennial grass dynamics in a dry tropical savanna

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 209 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. Orr ◽  
P. J. O'Reagain
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Perennial Grasses ◽  
Heteropogon Contortus ◽  
Heavy Grazing ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Sustainable Grazing ◽  
Grazing Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Rainfall variability remains a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia with perennial grasses the key to the stability of the resources that maintain a sustainable grazing industry. This paper describes the dynamics of five perennial grasses – Bothriochloa ewartiana (Domin) C.E. Hubb., Chrysopogon fallax S.T. Blake, Aristida spp., Panicum effusum R. Br. and Heteropogon contortus (L.) P. Beauv. ex Roem. & Schult. in relation to three grazing strategies – moderate stocking at long-term carrying capacity, heavy stocking and rotational wet season spelling. The research was conducted in permanent quadrats on the predominant land type in an extensive grazing study in an Aristida-Bothriochloa pasture in north Australia between 1998 and 2010. Summer rainfall was above average for two periods – 1998 – 2001 and 2008 – 2010 with drought and below-average rainfall from 2002 to 2007. Low rainfall affected the dynamics of all grasses by reducing survival and basal area through its effect on plant size; this impact was most noticeable for the shorter-lived Aristida spp., P. effusum and H. contortus. The impact of grazing was greatest on the long-lived B. ewartiana and C. fallax; this effect was accentuated by the 2002–07 drought. Heavy grazing during this period further reduced the survival and size of B. ewartiana in comparison with the moderate stocking and rotational spell treatments. In contrast, the survival of C. fallax was reduced in the moderate stocking and rotational spelling treatment during drought, relative to that under heavy grazing. The density of B. ewartiana declined even under moderate grazing and despite two sequences of above-average rainfall because seedling recruitment failed to offset mature plant death. Results from this study emphasised the importance of maintaining the existing populations of key long-lived species such as B. ewartiana through good management. These results also supported the overall findings from the grazing study indicating that stocking at the long-term carrying capacity is sustainable in managing for climate variability.

scholarly journals Climate of Brazil's nordeste and tropical atlantic sector: preferred time scales of variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dierk Polzin ◽  
Stefan Hastenrath
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Short Rainy Season ◽  
Frequency Peak ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
Causality Chain

Resuming earlier research, this study explores rainfall variability in Brazil's Nordeste and underlying circulation mechanisms. The semi-arid northern Nordeste has its short rainy season centered around March-April-May, when temperature maximum, low pressure trough and wind confluence reach their southernmost position. Interannual variability can be understood as departures from the average annual cycle. Based on novel long-term datasets, the present study explores the preferred time scales of variability. In Nordeste rainfall and pertinent circulation indices in the tropical Atlantic sector most prominent are frequencies of 13.2, 9.9 and 5.6 years. Frequency peak of 13.1 years appears also in the record of Southern Oscillation, and of 5.6 years in North Atlantic Oscillation, indicative of causality chain.

scholarly journals Can Australian Multiyear Droughts and Wet Spells Be Generated in the Absence of Oceanic Variability?

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (17) ◽  
pp. 6201-6221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Gaussian White Noise ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Wet Spells ◽  
Australian Rainfall ◽  
Oceanic Variability

Abstract Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.

scholarly journals Rainfall variability in southeast and west-central Africa during the Little Ice Age: do documentary and proxy records agree?

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Hannaford ◽  
Kristen K. Beck
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
West Central ◽  
Early Colonial ◽  
Instrumental Records

AbstractUnderstanding of long-term climatic change prior to instrumental records necessitates reconstructions from documentary and palaeoclimate archives. In southern Africa, documentary-derived chronologies of nineteenth century rainfall variability and palaeoclimate records have permitted new insights into rainfall variability over past centuries. Rarely considered, however, is the climatic information within early colonial documentary records that emerge from the late fifteenth century onwards. This paper examines evidence for (multi-)seasonal dry and wet events within these earlier written records (c. 1550–1830 CE) from southeast Africa (Mozambique) and west-central Africa (Angola) in conjunction with palaeoclimate records from multiple proxies. Specifically, it aims to understand whether these sources agree in their signals of rainfall variability over a 280-year period covering the ‘main phase’ Little Ice Age (LIA) in southern Africa. The two source types generally, but do not always, show agreement within the two regions. This appears to reflect both the nature of rainfall variability and the context behind documentary recording. Both source types indicate that southeast and west-central Africa were distinct regions of rainfall variability over seasonal and longer timescales during the LIA, with southeast Africa being generally drier and west-central Africa generally wetter. However, the documentary records reveal considerable variability within these mean state climatic conditions, with multi-year droughts a recurrent feature in both regions. An analysis of long-term rainfall links with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in southeast Africa suggests a complex and possibly non-stationary relationship. Overall, early colonial records provide valuable information for constraining hydroclimate variability where palaeoclimate records remain sparse.

Comparing fixed and flexible stocking as adaptations to inter-annual rainfall variability in the extensive beef industry of northern Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lester Pahl ◽  
Joe Scanlan ◽  
Giselle Whish ◽  
Robyn Cowley ◽  
Neil MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Beef Industry ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Stocking Rates

Many beef producers within the extensive cattle industry of northern Australia attempt to maintain a constant herd size from year-to-year (fixed stocking), whereas others adjust stock numbers to varying degrees annually in response to changes in forage supply. The effects of these strategies on pasture condition and cattle productivity cannot easily be assessed by grazing trials. Simulation studies, which include feedbacks of changes to pasture condition on cattle liveweight gain, can extend the results of grazing trials both spatially and temporally. They can compare a large number of strategies, over long periods of time, for a range of climate periods, at locations which differ markedly in climate. This simulation study compared the pasture condition and cattle productivity achieved by fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity with that of 55 flexible stocking strategies at 28 locations across Queensland and the Northern Territory. Flexible stocking strategies differed markedly in the degree they increased or decreased cattle stocking rates after good and poor pasture growing seasons, respectively. The 28 locations covered the full range in average annual rainfall and inter-annual rainfall variability experienced across northern Australia. Constrained flexibility, which limited increases in stocking rates after good growing seasons to 10% but decreased them by up to 20% after poor growing seasons, provides sustainable productivity gains for cattle producers in northern Australia. This strategy can improve pasture condition and increase cattle productivity relative to fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity, and its capacity to do this was greatest in the semiarid rangeland regions that contain the majority of beef cattle in northern Australia. More flexible stocking strategies, which also increased stocking rates after good growing seasons by only half as much as they decreased them after poor growing seasons, were equally sustainable and more productive than constrained flexibility, but are often impractical at property and industry scales. Strategies with the highest limits (e.g. 70%) for both annual increases and decreases in stocking rates could achieve higher cattle productivity, but this was at the expense of pasture condition and was not sustainable. Constrained flexible stocking, with a 10% limit for increases and a 20% limit for decreases in stocking rates annually, is a risk-averse adaptation to high and unpredictable rainfall variability for the extensive beef industry of northern Australia.

Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on underlying processes

1997 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.J. Mason ◽  
M.R. Jury
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Quasi-periodicities in annual rainfall totals over southern Africa have been identified; in particular, an approximately 18-year cycle may be related to interdecadal variability in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and central Indian Oceans. A 10-year cycle along the south coast is related to variability in standing wave 3. Atmospheric anomalies associated with wet and dry years can be related to changes in the frequency, intensity and persistence of important rainfall-producing weather systems and highlight the significance of the strength of the continental heat low and the preferred locations and amplitudes of the westerly troughs. El Niño Southern Oscillation events and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans can influence both the tropical and the temperate atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes over the subcontinent and thus are significant influences on rainfall variability. Evidence for long-term climatic change is not as definitive as in the Sahel, although there are indications of desiccation in some areas since the late-1970s. Increases in temperatures are of approximately the same magnitude as the hemispheric trends and may be attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

scholarly journals Resting Subtropical Grasslands from Grazing in the Wet Season Boosts Biocrust Hotspots to Improve Soil Health

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Wendy J. Williams ◽  
Susanne Schmidt ◽  
Eli Zaady ◽  
Bruce Alchin ◽  
Than Myint Swe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practice ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Soil Health ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Ecosystem Integrity ◽  
Landscape Function ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Stocking Rates

Effective grazing management in Australia’s semi-arid rangelands requires monitoring landscape conditions and identifying sustainable and productive practice through understanding the interactions of environmental factors and management of soil health. Challenges include extreme rainfall variability, intensifying drought, and inherently nutrient-poor soils. We investigated the impacts of grazing strategies on landscape function—specifically soil health—as the foundation for productive pastures, integrating the heterogenous nature of grass tussocks and the interspaces that naturally exist in between them. At Wambiana—a long-term research site in north-eastern Australia—we studied two soil types, two stocking rates (high, moderate), and resting land from grazing during wet seasons (rotational spelling). Rotational spelling had the highest biocrust (living soil cover), in interspaces and under grass tussocks. Biocrusts were dominated by cyanobacteria that binds soil particles, reduces erosion, sequesters carbon, fixes nitrogen, and improves soil fertility. Rotational spelling with a moderate stocking rate emerged as best practice at these sites, with adjustment of stocking rates in line with rainfall and soil type recommended. In drought-prone environments, monitoring the presence and integrity of biocrusts connects landscape function and soil health. Biocrusts that protect and enrich the soil will support long-term ecosystem integrity and economic profitability of cattle production in rangelands.

Some advantages of long-term grazing trials, with particular reference to changes in botanical composition

1995 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
RM Jones ◽  
RJ Jones ◽  
CK McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Research Funding ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Botanical Composition ◽  
Commercial Use ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
On Farm ◽  
Stocking Rates

Comments are made about some advantages of long-term grazing trials, with special reference to the fact that important botanical changes may occur only after many years, sometimes with subsequent changes in animal production. Rainfall variability is a major reason for these delayed changes, but other factors such as changing soil fertility, longevity of individual plants, and the cumulative effect of stocking rates are involved. The need for trials to document the long-term effect of treatments on botanical change is in conflict with the current (1995) trends for research funding to be directed towards shorter term projects; and yet, botanical change is an important component of sustainability, which is currently accorded high priority. Various ways of addressing the problem of predicting long-term botanical change are discussed, including the use of modelling. Suggestions are made about ways in which long-term grazing trials can be made more effective. Extensive 'on-farm' surveys, provided the pastures concerned are in widespread commercial use, may be a partial alternative to grazing trials.

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